Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Three intensity image current Three RI diff image

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Three at 06/27/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 2.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 5.1% 2.0% 18.8% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.7% 0.6% 6.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Three at 06/26/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 6.5% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 2.8% 1.4% 21.9% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 7.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
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Three at 06/26/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 3.6% 0.4% 12.1% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 4.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
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Three at 06/26/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 12.2% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 2.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 4.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.9% 6.0% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 4.7% 1.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5%
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Three at 06/26/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 4.2% 1.9% 11.9% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 5.5% 1.9% 1.6% 1.2% 5.8% 1.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.9% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 4.3% 1.3% 2.0% 1.2% 4.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 1.2% 9.8% 3.5% 3.0% 2.4% 11.2% 3.5% 0.3% 1.5% 1.1%
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Three at 06/25/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 6.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% 0.9% 5.7% 4.2% 17.7% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 2.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 2.3% 0.7% 2.4% 1.6% 6.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 5.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 5.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5%
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Three at 06/25/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 6.0% 2.6% 0.8% 0.4% 1.2% 0.1% 4.5% 0.9% 27.5% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 5.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 6.7% 2.1% 2.4% 1.2% 1.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 5.7% 2.0% 1.2% 1.0% 4.8% 1.4% 3.0% 1.1% 10.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 1.0% 9.5% 2.9% 2.6% 2.4% 12.4% 3.7% 3.3% 2.2% 2.4%
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Three at 06/25/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.0% 22.0% 7.8% 0.8% 2.2% 2.8% 0.7% 12.5% 6.6% 24.4% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 12.7% 5.1% 4.6% 3.3% 15.8% 7.0% 6.2% 3.8% 4.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 15.8% 6.0% 3.3% 2.9% 11.4% 4.8% 8.3% 4.7% 11.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 5.1% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 2.1% 0.9% 3.4% 0.7% 1.4%
Logistic Regression 2.9% 20.3% 8.7% 8.4% 6.5% 29.4% 13.0% 9.1% 6.9% 8.1%
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