Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)                                                                                                                                                                                   Mun at 07/08/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/07/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/07/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/07/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/07/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/06/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/06/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/06/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/06/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 3.1% 3.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 1.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/05/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 5.2% 2.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/05/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/05/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 2.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/05/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 8.1% 1.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/04/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/04/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/04/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 4.3% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/04/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 3.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/03/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.3% 6.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 3.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.1% 3.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 2.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/03/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.8% 12.4% 9.0% 0.5% 1.1% 1.3% 0.3% 2.0% 0.1% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 7.9% 4.0% 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.5% 6.7% 4.8% 1.7% 1.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.8% 3.1% 3.1% 2.6% 2.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.1% 4.8% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/03/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.1% 3.9% 3.9% 1.1% 2.6% 7.7% 4.2% 4.3% 0.8% 2.4% RIPA Consensus 6.8% 4.7% 3.1% 2.8% 1.6% 6.1% 3.4% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.8% 4.4% 3.3% 2.2% 1.9% 6.6% 3.6% 5.6% 0.2% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.4% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 0.7% 3.0% 3.0% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.2% 6.4% 3.1% 2.6% 2.6% 9.2% 3.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mun at 07/03/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 15.0% 9.7% 2.0% 0.7% 2.5% 1.1% 4.4% 1.5% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 3.7% 1.9% 1.6% 1.0% 4.7% 2.1% 5.3% 2.4% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 7.4% 4.5% 1.7% 0.8% 4.0% 1.7% 5.0% 2.1% 1.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 7.8% 2.9% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.1% 6.4% 3.2% 2.6% 1.9% 9.0% 3.6% 2.9% 1.9% 2.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Four at 07/02/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 4.2% 2.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 3.6% 1.7% 1.3% 0.9% 4.9% 2.0% 2.9% 1.5% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 3.7% 2.0% 0.9% 0.7% 3.4% 1.3% 2.6% 1.0% 0.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 4.3% 1.4% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.7% 6.6% 3.1% 2.4% 1.8% 9.4% 3.5% 1.4% 1.6% 2.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Four at 07/02/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 2.0% 0.4% 4.2% 0.4% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 3.9% 1.6% 1.3% 0.9% 5.7% 2.3% 5.3% 2.5% 1.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 3.1% 1.2% 0.9% 0.7% 4.4% 1.6% 4.9% 1.8% 1.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 7.7% 2.9% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.4% 6.8% 2.6% 2.0% 1.9% 10.5% 3.7% 2.9% 2.1% 3.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Four at 07/02/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 2.8% 0.6% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 3.3% 1.0% 2.1% 1.3% 2.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 2.6% 0.7% 2.3% 1.0% 1.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.7% 4.6% 1.5% 1.2% 1.0% 6.2% 1.8% 1.0% 1.6% 3.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Four at 07/02/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 7.8% 1.1% 1.3% 0.4% 1.5% 0.8% 2.8% 1.6% 4.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 6.5% 2.6% 2.1% 1.7% 7.1% 2.8% 8.3% 4.2% 3.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 6.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.2% 5.2% 2.1% 6.4% 3.3% 3.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 1.3% 0.9% 11.9% 4.6% 1.6% Logistic Regression 1.5% 11.1% 4.4% 3.7% 3.4% 12.8% 4.6% 4.6% 3.8% 5.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Four at 07/01/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 9.6% 4.2% 0.8% 0.4% 2.6% 0.8% 2.2% 1.6% 4.2% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 9.9% 4.0% 3.4% 2.6% 10.9% 4.5% 6.5% 4.1% 4.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.2% 9.7% 4.0% 2.5% 1.8% 8.1% 3.2% 5.1% 3.2% 4.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 4.0% 1.6% 1.1% 0.1% 2.2% 1.4% 9.7% 3.4% 1.2% Logistic Regression 2.7% 15.7% 6.4% 5.7% 5.0% 19.7% 7.6% 3.4% 4.8% 6.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------