Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Five at 07/10/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 5.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.6% 3.5% 1.0% 15.1% 4.0% 10.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.3% 1.6% 1.2% 1.0% 9.0% 4.2% 4.9% 4.2% 4.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.8% 7.1% 3.1% 8.2% 4.1% 6.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 6.9% 2.8% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.1% 8.0% 3.0% 2.3% 2.0% 17.5% 8.0% 2.8% 5.7% 8.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 07/10/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 2.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 9.7% 1.4% 18.6% 7.1% 22.3% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 11.1% 5.2% 4.7% 3.5% 19.5% 11.5% 2.7% 6.9% 12.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 8.2% 4.1% 3.3% 2.3% 16.2% 8.1% 7.9% 6.9% 15.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 1.5% 1.4% 4.0% 1.3% 0.7% Logistic Regression 1.9% 20.4% 9.3% 8.2% 7.0% 37.5% 21.7% 1.3% 12.4% 23.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 07/10/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 5.3% 0.9% 16.3% 3.8% 9.3% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 5.9% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 11.5% 5.5% 4.0% 4.8% 9.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 5.2% 1.8% 1.3% 1.1% 9.4% 4.0% 8.1% 4.4% 9.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 6.0% 2.1% 0.9% Logistic Regression 1.0% 11.2% 4.1% 3.3% 3.2% 22.2% 10.2% 2.1% 7.5% 17.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                                                                                                                                                           Danas at 07/08/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 16.6% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 6.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 1.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Danas at 07/08/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 8.0% 3.3% 1.5% 1.3% 5.0% 1.6% 11.9% 2.5% 8.8% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 3.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.4% 2.3% 0.7% 4.1% 1.0% 3.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Danas at 07/08/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 2.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 1.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 1.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Danas at 07/08/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 1.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Danas at 07/07/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 3.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Danas at 07/07/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.3% 11.4% 8.1% 5.1% 1.2% 2.2% 0.8% 2.4% 0.8% 2.2% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 1.5% 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 5.0% 3.2% 2.1% 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 1.9% 0.6% 1.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.8% 3.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 2.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Danas at 07/07/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Danas at 07/06/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.1% 13.6% 9.6% 13.5% 5.4% 5.1% 1.2% 2.7% 0.6% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 4.1% 2.7% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.6% 7.2% 4.9% 5.8% 2.9% 2.7% 0.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 2.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 6.2% 4.1% 3.5% 3.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Danas at 07/06/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 32.7% 21.3% 22.9% 22.9% 23.1% 17.6% 3.4% 2.0% 0.7% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 41.6% 31.3% 29.3% 29.3% 23.1% 28.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 38.6% 27.9% 27.2% 27.2% 23.1% 24.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 58.5% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 20.5% 36.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 24.6% 30.6% 26.7% 26.7% 25.8% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Danas at 07/06/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.4% 31.8% 32.5% 19.3% 12.8% 11.3% 4.7% 1.9% 0.4% 2.5% RIPA Consensus 62.0% 72.3% 72.3% 72.3% 50.8% 41.1% 24.9% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 47.8% 58.7% 59.0% 54.6% 38.1% 31.2% 18.2% 9.2% 0.1% 0.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 69.4% 71.6% 71.6% 71.6% 29.5% 38.8% 22.1% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 54.6% 73.0% 73.0% 73.0% 72.2% 43.5% 27.8% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Danas at 07/06/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.5% 42.7% 28.1% 15.9% 15.0% 18.4% 4.7% 10.1% 2.6% 2.5% RIPA Consensus 40.5% 53.4% 52.8% 52.8% 38.6% 31.8% 19.2% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 32.8% 49.8% 44.5% 40.5% 30.7% 27.3% 14.3% 11.7% 0.8% 0.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 45.1% 47.3% 46.2% 46.2% 18.5% 26.5% 17.0% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 35.9% 59.4% 59.4% 59.4% 58.6% 37.0% 21.3% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Danas at 07/05/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.5% 37.0% 18.8% 13.8% 11.0% 9.4% 4.5% 6.3% 5.0% 3.6% RIPA Consensus 28.1% 49.2% 43.7% 43.4% 36.3% 29.8% 17.3% 13.7% 6.0% 2.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 23.5% 45.1% 35.3% 33.5% 27.8% 23.0% 13.0% 11.2% 5.6% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 31.6% 42.2% 34.3% 33.8% 19.6% 24.8% 15.6% 14.3% 5.2% 0.2% Logistic Regression 24.6% 56.2% 53.0% 53.0% 53.0% 34.9% 18.9% 13.1% 6.8% 4.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Danas at 07/05/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.7% 46.3% 28.9% 19.8% 22.4% 31.3% 9.8% 13.3% 8.8% 6.9% RIPA Consensus 29.3% 54.9% 50.5% 49.9% 40.8% 37.0% 23.4% 18.8% 9.9% 3.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 27.4% 52.0% 43.3% 39.9% 34.6% 35.1% 18.8% 17.0% 9.5% 4.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 35.9% 49.2% 42.6% 41.5% 23.2% 31.2% 21.7% 23.3% 10.1% 0.9% Logistic Regression 22.7% 60.7% 58.4% 58.4% 58.4% 42.8% 25.1% 14.4% 9.6% 5.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Danas at 07/05/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.3% 31.1% 15.0% 10.6% 9.9% 18.9% 7.3% 15.6% 2.7% 6.2% RIPA Consensus 16.8% 59.5% 49.6% 49.6% 33.8% 47.9% 34.3% 30.6% 18.7% 13.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.9% 50.0% 38.0% 36.5% 25.8% 38.2% 25.2% 25.6% 13.4% 11.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.7% 49.3% 34.3% 34.3% 6.3% 28.9% 17.8% 24.6% 10.7% 4.4% Logistic Regression 19.9% 69.7% 64.8% 64.8% 61.4% 66.9% 50.7% 36.6% 26.8% 22.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Danas at 07/05/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.9% 24.6% 19.1% 11.2% 3.3% 16.8% 3.4% 11.2% 8.9% 5.3% RIPA Consensus 11.1% 45.5% 33.1% 32.6% 24.7% 44.0% 29.9% 26.7% 16.6% 15.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.3% 38.5% 28.4% 25.5% 17.5% 34.9% 21.0% 21.5% 14.0% 12.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.8% 33.7% 19.7% 18.8% 6.2% 26.5% 16.5% 22.3% 9.4% 6.8% Logistic Regression 11.4% 57.3% 46.5% 46.5% 43.1% 61.6% 43.4% 31.0% 23.7% 23.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 07/04/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 8.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.3% 1.4% 0.3% 7.3% 0.6% 9.0% RIPA Consensus 6.4% 30.3% 17.8% 15.3% 13.9% 37.1% 21.6% 26.3% 15.8% 17.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.7% 22.8% 12.6% 10.2% 9.3% 25.2% 14.5% 19.9% 10.7% 14.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.8% 20.5% 12.8% 7.7% 5.0% 23.7% 14.7% 27.8% 13.0% 11.6% Logistic Regression 6.0% 40.0% 22.8% 22.8% 22.8% 50.5% 28.5% 24.7% 18.7% 23.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 07/04/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.2% 22.4% 11.5% 1.0% 2.8% 4.1% 1.0% 11.2% 3.0% 5.7% RIPA Consensus 4.7% 27.5% 14.8% 12.9% 10.9% 32.9% 18.4% 30.8% 19.5% 27.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.8% 25.7% 13.7% 8.9% 8.2% 23.3% 12.6% 24.2% 14.0% 20.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.3% 17.7% 10.0% 6.2% 2.3% 18.0% 10.2% 31.1% 14.6% 20.1% Logistic Regression 5.0% 37.2% 19.6% 19.6% 19.6% 47.8% 26.6% 30.5% 24.4% 34.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 07/04/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.2% 24.6% 11.8% 4.7% 3.6% 18.5% 6.2% 17.9% 12.4% 14.3% RIPA Consensus 7.2% 44.5% 28.3% 26.8% 19.9% 49.4% 37.7% 48.9% 39.1% 51.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.2% 37.8% 22.7% 19.4% 14.4% 39.1% 27.2% 38.5% 30.1% 39.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.8% 30.2% 14.3% 11.4% 1.9% 24.5% 15.8% 42.4% 23.9% 34.4% Logistic Regression 9.6% 58.8% 42.2% 42.2% 37.8% 74.4% 59.6% 55.4% 54.2% 68.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 07/04/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.9% 19.2% 8.6% 8.1% 5.6% 20.7% 7.8% 13.0% 16.8% 8.6% RIPA Consensus 3.8% 31.7% 17.3% 16.0% 12.1% 40.0% 27.4% 36.9% 26.9% 48.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 27.5% 14.4% 13.3% 9.9% 33.5% 20.8% 28.9% 23.5% 34.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 17.0% 6.9% 4.3% 0.6% 15.7% 9.5% 34.8% 18.2% 37.6% Logistic Regression 5.8% 46.4% 27.8% 27.7% 23.6% 64.2% 45.2% 39.1% 35.5% 58.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------