Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Six intensity image current Six RI diff image

 


 


 


 


 


Six at 07/15/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nari at 07/14/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nari at 07/14/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nari at 07/14/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nari at 07/14/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 2.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nari at 07/13/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nari at 07/13/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nari at 07/13/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Nari at 07/13/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 0.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.8% 1.6% 1.0% 2.5% 0.8% 5.3% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 1.9% 0.2% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Six at 07/12/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 2.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 2.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 2.4% 0.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 2.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 1.9% 0.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.3% 4.9% 1.9% 1.5% 1.2% 4.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
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Six at 07/12/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 5.0% 2.0% 1.7% 1.2% 3.8% 1.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 4.2% 1.5% 1.2% 0.8% 2.7% 0.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 3.3% 0.9% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 2.0% 8.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.4% 7.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0%
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Six at 07/12/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 9.0% 5.9% 0.8% 1.1% 3.9% 1.2% 2.0% 1.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 9.2% 3.8% 3.3% 2.6% 4.9% 1.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 9.1% 4.5% 2.4% 2.1% 4.6% 1.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 3.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 2.4% 14.7% 6.3% 5.7% 5.1% 8.9% 2.5% 1.2% 0.9% 0.3%
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Six at 07/12/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 2.5% 12.2% 5.4% 4.7% 4.0% 8.2% 2.9% 6.0% 2.8% 0.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 8.7% 3.6% 3.1% 2.8% 5.6% 2.0% 4.1% 1.9% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 6.0% 3.4% 1.9% 0.6% 3.1% 1.6% 9.4% 3.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 3.0% 18.4% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 13.3% 4.2% 2.5% 2.5% 1.1%
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Six at 07/11/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 15.4% 7.0% 6.1% 5.6% 11.9% 4.3% 5.0% 2.4% 0.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 10.7% 4.7% 4.0% 3.6% 8.1% 2.9% 3.4% 1.6% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 7.3% 3.9% 2.0% 1.0% 4.5% 2.2% 6.2% 1.8% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 3.4% 23.4% 10.1% 10.1% 10.1% 19.4% 6.5% 3.7% 3.1% 1.3%
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Six at 07/11/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 5.6% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 4.8% 1.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.9% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 3.1% 0.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 1.2% 9.5% 3.1% 2.7% 2.4% 8.7% 2.2% 2.3% 1.2% 1.6%
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