Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)                                                             Wipha at 07/22/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/22/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/22/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/22/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/21/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 5.9% 0.3% 12.9% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 3.8% 1.9% 1.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 2.6% 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 2.2% 0.1% 4.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.4% 5.8% 2.3% 2.2% 1.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/21/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 15.8% 5.0% 1.1% 0.2% 2.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 9.6% RIPA Consensus 2.4% 5.2% 3.0% 2.9% 1.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 8.7% 3.6% 2.3% 0.8% 2.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 3.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.2% 7.6% 3.2% 3.2% 2.4% 3.2% 0.7% 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/21/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 4.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 13.3% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 2.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 4.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.8% 4.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/21/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------         Wipha at 07/20/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 3.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 2.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/20/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.3% 10.3% 2.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 5.8% 3.3% 3.2% 1.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.0% 7.3% 2.8% 2.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 3.2% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.1% 8.4% 4.3% 4.0% 3.5% 1.9% 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/20/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.3% 20.5% 10.6% 2.9% 2.2% 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 19.0% 38.1% 35.9% 35.9% 20.3% 12.9% 4.5% 2.4% 0.5% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.0% 32.2% 27.4% 24.8% 14.2% 9.7% 3.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 20.8% 32.3% 32.3% 32.3% 5.2% 8.6% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 17.1% 43.9% 39.5% 39.5% 35.4% 17.3% 6.3% 4.8% 1.1% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/20/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.1% 13.9% 5.7% 2.2% 0.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 12.1% 27.7% 23.6% 23.6% 13.5% 8.2% 2.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.0% 23.1% 17.6% 16.4% 9.0% 5.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.1% 21.3% 20.5% 20.5% 3.4% 4.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 10.0% 34.2% 26.7% 26.7% 23.5% 11.8% 3.9% 2.6% 0.7% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/19/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.0% 8.3% 2.7% 2.0% 4.7% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 7.6% 19.1% 13.9% 13.9% 7.8% 7.5% 2.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.7% 15.4% 10.2% 9.9% 6.7% 5.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.0% 14.2% 13.0% 13.0% 1.8% 4.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 5.2% 23.9% 14.9% 14.9% 13.8% 10.8% 3.5% 2.5% 0.8% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/19/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.8% 24.1% 11.8% 1.3% 0.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 8.8% 4.3% 4.3% 2.3% 4.2% 1.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.6% 13.9% 6.8% 3.2% 1.5% 3.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 5.1% 2.5% 2.5% 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.5% 12.5% 6.1% 6.1% 4.5% 6.9% 1.8% 2.5% 0.6% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/19/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 9.6% 2.2% 2.4% 0.1% 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 10.6% 5.2% 5.2% 2.8% 6.2% 1.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 10.2% 4.1% 4.2% 1.9% 4.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.1% 7.6% 4.1% 4.1% 0.4% 3.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.2% 13.7% 6.2% 6.2% 5.2% 9.0% 2.5% 3.4% 1.1% 1.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/19/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.4% 25.4% 10.0% 3.5% 0.6% 2.3% 0.3% 4.9% 1.1% 10.4% RIPA Consensus 13.5% 38.2% 24.6% 24.6% 16.4% 23.9% 9.6% 8.2% 3.1% 3.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.7% 33.9% 19.7% 17.5% 11.1% 16.6% 6.5% 7.1% 2.4% 5.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.4% 31.7% 18.8% 18.8% 3.9% 16.7% 6.5% 4.5% 0.9% 0.4% Logistic Regression 12.5% 44.8% 30.5% 30.5% 28.9% 31.0% 12.7% 11.9% 5.2% 6.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/18/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.2% 33.9% 23.3% 2.9% 0.8% 12.9% 1.4% 1.9% 1.4% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 12.2% 42.4% 27.3% 27.3% 16.9% 28.2% 13.2% 13.6% 7.0% 6.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 13.5% 39.5% 25.9% 19.1% 11.5% 23.1% 9.2% 9.7% 5.1% 4.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.2% 34.6% 18.2% 18.2% 2.7% 15.3% 6.2% 7.5% 1.8% 0.6% Logistic Regression 12.2% 50.2% 36.3% 36.3% 31.1% 41.2% 20.3% 19.7% 12.2% 13.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Wipha at 07/18/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.3% 16.6% 7.8% 0.9% 1.1% 3.1% 0.3% 3.3% 1.3% 3.1% RIPA Consensus 6.0% 37.8% 19.9% 17.8% 12.3% 29.0% 13.2% 22.4% 11.9% 17.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.4% 30.7% 15.8% 12.1% 8.5% 20.3% 8.9% 16.0% 8.3% 12.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.8% 29.3% 13.3% 9.2% 1.0% 16.4% 7.1% 21.9% 8.6% 11.0% Logistic Regression 7.2% 46.3% 26.4% 26.4% 23.6% 41.5% 19.4% 22.9% 15.1% 24.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------