Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)                                                               Ten at 07/27/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 8.3% 2.4% 1.5% 1.1% 8.3% 1.7% 3.7% 1.7% 2.6% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 6.8% 2.9% 2.3% 1.6% 16.2% 8.5% 12.3% 10.8% 23.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 7.3% 2.6% 2.0% 1.4% 13.5% 6.2% 9.4% 7.7% 16.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 1.4% 17.2% 7.3% 11.8% Logistic Regression 1.2% 12.5% 5.4% 4.3% 3.1% 30.8% 15.5% 7.3% 14.3% 35.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 07/27/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 7.6% 3.2% 3.9% 3.4% 6.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 5.2% 2.1% 3.0% 2.4% 4.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 5.9% 2.0% 1.3% Logistic Regression 0.7% 4.5% 1.7% 1.2% 0.8% 15.0% 6.1% 2.0% 4.9% 11.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 07/26/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 4.6% 1.3% 5.4% 2.5% 3.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 3.0% 0.8% 3.7% 1.7% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 8.1% 2.7% 2.6% Logistic Regression 0.2% 3.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 8.7% 2.3% 2.7% 2.3% 5.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 07/26/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 4.0% 1.3% 7.0% 3.5% 6.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2.6% 0.8% 5.0% 2.3% 4.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 10.3% 3.8% 4.6% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 7.7% 2.3% 3.8% 3.1% 9.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Francisco at 07/26/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 7.5% 2.8% 8.7% 4.9% 5.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 5.1% 1.9% 6.2% 3.3% 4.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% 10.4% 3.8% 3.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 5.0% 1.7% 1.2% 1.0% 14.2% 4.8% 6.9% 6.1% 8.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Francisco at 07/26/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 2.1% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 5.3% 1.7% 5.6% 3.2% 9.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 3.6% 1.2% 4.2% 2.1% 6.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 7.0% 2.4% 4.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 3.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 10.0% 3.0% 4.2% 3.9% 14.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Francisco at 07/25/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 6.3% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 2.2% 0.5% 2.4% 1.1% 5.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.6% 0.3% 1.8% 0.7% 5.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 3.1% 0.9% 3.7% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 4.3% 1.0% 1.7% 1.2% 6.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Francisco at 07/25/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 5.8% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 2.3% 0.5% 3.2% 1.3% 8.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% 0.3% 2.4% 0.9% 7.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 4.1% 1.2% 8.8% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 4.4% 1.0% 2.2% 1.4% 8.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Francisco at 07/25/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 5.6% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 3.7% 1.1% 6.9% 2.8% 14.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 2.9% 0.8% 4.9% 2.0% 11.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 8.7% 2.9% 14.7% Logistic Regression 0.4% 4.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 6.8% 1.7% 5.2% 2.6% 15.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Francisco at 07/25/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 2.3% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 5.2% 1.7% 6.6% 2.6% 8.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 3.6% 1.1% 4.6% 1.7% 6.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.7% 1.1% 8.4% 2.7% 6.5% Logistic Regression 0.6% 5.6% 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 8.6% 2.3% 4.8% 2.6% 10.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Francisco at 07/24/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 2.7% 0.7% 3.7% 1.2% 5.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.7% 0.4% 2.5% 0.7% 3.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 4.4% 1.1% 4.7% Logistic Regression 0.4% 3.9% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 4.8% 1.1% 2.9% 1.2% 6.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Francisco at 07/24/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 3.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.9% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 5.2% 1.5% 6.1% 2.0% 7.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 3.6% 1.0% 4.5% 1.3% 6.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 2.0% 0.8% 6.7% 1.7% 6.4% Logistic Regression 0.8% 8.1% 2.7% 2.2% 2.1% 8.5% 2.2% 5.6% 2.2% 8.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Francisco at 07/24/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.2% 11.9% 11.8% 2.4% 2.1% 3.2% 1.3% 3.8% 2.6% 6.9% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 9.6% 3.9% 3.0% 2.5% 8.4% 2.7% 10.2% 3.5% 8.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 10.4% 6.5% 2.7% 2.3% 6.6% 2.2% 8.0% 3.1% 7.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 5.9% 2.7% 1.4% 0.3% 5.6% 2.1% 11.3% 3.5% 7.4% Logistic Regression 1.1% 13.4% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 11.2% 3.2% 9.1% 3.4% 8.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Francisco at 07/24/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 6.8% 1.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 1.9% 0.4% 7.8% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 8.1% 3.1% 2.2% 1.9% 7.5% 2.1% 8.7% 2.8% 14.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 7.7% 2.6% 1.8% 1.3% 5.2% 1.4% 6.4% 2.0% 12.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 4.7% 2.0% 0.8% 0.4% 5.0% 1.7% 10.0% 2.9% 14.8% Logistic Regression 1.0% 11.6% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 10.0% 2.5% 7.4% 2.7% 14.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Francisco at 07/23/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 2.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.9% 0.1% 4.6% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 5.7% 1.9% 1.2% 1.2% 3.7% 0.8% 4.0% 1.0% 8.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.4% 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 2.6% 0.5% 3.2% 0.7% 7.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 3.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 2.4% 0.5% 4.8% 0.9% 9.2% Logistic Regression 0.8% 8.1% 2.5% 2.1% 2.1% 5.1% 1.0% 3.2% 1.1% 7.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Francisco at 07/23/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 2.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 11.6% RIPA Consensus 3.3% 14.1% 5.9% 4.8% 3.8% 9.9% 3.1% 5.6% 1.8% 7.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 10.2% 4.5% 3.1% 2.5% 6.7% 2.0% 4.1% 1.2% 8.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.1% 9.6% 4.4% 2.4% 0.8% 5.8% 2.0% 4.7% 1.0% 3.3% Logistic Regression 3.5% 18.5% 7.4% 7.1% 6.7% 14.1% 4.1% 6.4% 2.7% 10.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Francisco at 07/23/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.4% 8.2% 2.7% 3.2% 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.8% 17.5% RIPA Consensus 5.1% 24.3% 12.4% 10.0% 8.4% 16.0% 5.8% 9.6% 3.7% 10.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.2% 18.9% 9.1% 7.7% 5.9% 12.0% 4.2% 7.1% 2.7% 12.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.7% 18.4% 10.2% 5.5% 2.4% 10.0% 4.0% 10.0% 2.7% 5.1% Logistic Regression 4.5% 30.1% 14.5% 14.5% 14.5% 22.1% 7.6% 9.3% 4.7% 15.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Francisco at 07/23/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.0% 7.8% 2.3% 0.3% 0.7% 2.5% 0.6% 5.9% 1.1% 7.4% RIPA Consensus 5.4% 34.0% 18.4% 15.2% 13.2% 28.6% 12.6% 26.1% 14.4% 26.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.9% 25.3% 13.0% 10.2% 9.0% 19.9% 8.5% 19.3% 9.9% 20.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.7% 25.6% 13.8% 7.3% 3.5% 18.4% 8.2% 30.7% 13.7% 23.5% Logistic Regression 5.1% 42.5% 23.0% 23.0% 23.0% 38.9% 16.9% 21.4% 15.0% 29.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 07/22/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 3.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% 1.2% 4.2% 0.9% 19.2% RIPA Consensus 2.7% 23.5% 10.2% 7.7% 7.2% 24.1% 9.9% 24.7% 13.4% 35.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.7% 16.9% 7.1% 5.2% 4.9% 16.5% 7.0% 17.9% 9.2% 29.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 15.1% 6.6% 2.2% 1.3% 13.0% 5.6% 28.6% 12.5% 34.3% Logistic Regression 3.4% 31.9% 13.8% 13.2% 13.2% 35.2% 14.2% 20.9% 14.2% 36.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 07/22/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.7% 16.4% 8.8% 4.6% 2.4% 7.3% 4.1% 9.6% 3.9% 25.2% RIPA Consensus 2.8% 29.3% 12.7% 9.6% 8.8% 33.8% 17.2% 33.3% 20.6% 49.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.4% 25.0% 11.4% 7.9% 6.6% 25.0% 12.7% 25.4% 15.0% 41.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 19.5% 7.7% 2.3% 1.2% 17.9% 8.6% 40.4% 21.3% 49.0% Logistic Regression 3.9% 39.1% 17.7% 17.0% 16.4% 49.8% 25.7% 26.2% 19.9% 49.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 07/22/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.0% 34.4% 27.5% 5.6% 7.4% 12.1% 7.4% 25.1% 12.9% 32.9% RIPA Consensus 3.4% 45.0% 23.9% 21.1% 15.7% 46.6% 29.9% 46.8% 31.2% 62.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.5% 41.4% 25.1% 15.9% 12.9% 35.1% 22.4% 39.5% 25.1% 52.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 31.6% 10.7% 5.1% 0.4% 24.0% 11.8% 46.5% 25.2% 59.0% Logistic Regression 5.6% 58.4% 37.1% 37.1% 30.9% 69.2% 48.1% 47.1% 37.3% 65.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------