Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)                                                           Eleven at 08/03/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleven at 08/03/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleven at 08/03/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                           Eleven at 08/02/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleven at 08/02/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleven at 08/02/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleven at 08/02/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleven at 08/01/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleven at 08/01/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                             Co-may at 08/01/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.4% 0.1% 1.3% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/31/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/31/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 6.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/31/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 6.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 1.8% 0.3% 3.6% 0.3% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/31/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 3.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/30/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 4.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/30/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 1.7% 0.0% 3.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/30/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 8.2% 0.2% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 3.8% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/30/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 2.0% 0.1% 4.7% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 1.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 2.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/29/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 2.6% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 3.1% 1.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 2.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 2.1% 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 4.1% 1.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.4% 4.5% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 5.8% 1.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/29/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.1% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 3.2% 1.3% 1.1% 0.7% 3.6% 1.3% 2.9% 1.1% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 2.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 2.6% 0.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 4.6% 1.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.2% 5.5% 2.2% 1.8% 1.4% 6.9% 2.2% 1.3% 0.8% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/29/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 2.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 2.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 2.2% 0.6% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 2.4% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 1.5% 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.7% 4.7% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 4.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/29/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 14.0% 5.6% 1.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 5.6% 2.3% 1.7% 1.5% 2.8% 0.8% 2.6% 0.9% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 8.4% 3.3% 1.5% 1.0% 2.2% 0.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 1.6% 9.5% 3.7% 3.0% 2.9% 5.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/28/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 7.0% 2.7% 2.1% 2.0% 5.2% 1.6% 3.9% 1.3% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 5.2% 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 3.5% 1.1% 2.6% 0.9% 1.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 2.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 1.9% 1.0% 6.4% 1.7% 0.9% Logistic Regression 1.8% 11.3% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 8.5% 2.2% 1.4% 1.0% 1.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/28/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 3.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 9.7% 4.1% 3.3% 3.1% 11.7% 4.7% 12.0% 5.3% 3.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 7.7% 3.1% 2.2% 2.1% 7.8% 3.1% 8.2% 3.5% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 2.9% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 5.1% 3.2% 17.8% 6.9% 4.4% Logistic Regression 1.6% 16.5% 6.7% 6.1% 6.1% 18.3% 6.3% 6.3% 3.7% 3.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/28/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.1% 12.7% 5.5% 6.2% 0.7% 2.8% 0.5% 4.5% 0.5% 1.7% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 13.0% 5.8% 4.9% 4.3% 12.4% 4.6% 12.3% 5.1% 3.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 12.9% 5.6% 5.3% 3.0% 9.2% 3.2% 9.7% 3.5% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.1% 6.2% 3.4% 1.7% 0.4% 6.6% 3.3% 17.5% 6.3% 3.8% Logistic Regression 2.3% 19.9% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 18.2% 5.9% 7.1% 3.8% 3.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/28/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 6.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 2.4% 0.3% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 12.5% 5.7% 4.8% 4.2% 12.5% 4.8% 14.1% 6.1% 5.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 5.5% 3.5% 1.7% 0.5% 7.2% 4.0% 18.6% 7.3% 5.2% Logistic Regression 2.0% 19.5% 7.9% 7.9% 7.9% 17.9% 5.6% 9.7% 4.9% 5.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/27/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 4.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 2.2% 0.8% 5.7% 0.3% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 2.5% 18.0% 9.7% 8.5% 6.9% 20.3% 9.8% 19.2% 9.6% 7.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 13.2% 6.8% 5.8% 4.8% 14.2% 6.7% 14.7% 6.5% 5.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 9.4% 6.3% 3.9% 0.8% 11.2% 6.9% 21.6% 9.1% 5.2% Logistic Regression 3.1% 26.5% 13.1% 13.1% 13.1% 29.4% 12.6% 16.9% 10.1% 9.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/27/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.9% 35.9% 18.8% 10.4% 13.2% 20.3% 12.6% 19.5% 3.9% 12.0% RIPA Consensus 17.6% 54.0% 46.0% 46.0% 32.3% 56.4% 47.9% 41.6% 32.1% 24.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.7% 47.9% 36.9% 34.1% 25.9% 44.4% 36.1% 34.2% 22.7% 20.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.4% 39.4% 31.5% 31.5% 5.0% 34.3% 26.3% 28.5% 14.7% 6.7% Logistic Regression 21.8% 68.5% 60.5% 60.5% 59.5% 78.6% 69.4% 54.7% 49.5% 41.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/27/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.6% 19.4% 15.8% 12.7% 5.1% 18.8% 12.4% 16.3% 13.5% 7.5% RIPA Consensus 5.5% 38.4% 28.3% 28.3% 19.6% 45.0% 37.4% 39.9% 31.4% 26.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.8% 32.0% 24.1% 23.0% 14.7% 36.2% 29.0% 32.0% 25.4% 20.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.2% 20.3% 13.3% 13.3% 0.4% 17.3% 13.5% 29.5% 15.7% 10.0% Logistic Regression 8.7% 56.4% 43.2% 43.2% 38.9% 72.7% 61.3% 50.3% 47.2% 43.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/27/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 23.1% 5.8% 1.1% 0.5% 2.1% 1.9% 3.5% 1.0% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 2.1% 21.6% 11.7% 10.7% 8.5% 30.7% 20.0% 26.0% 18.8% 23.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 22.1% 9.7% 7.5% 5.8% 21.1% 13.9% 18.5% 12.8% 16.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 8.1% 3.6% 3.2% 0.0% 10.1% 7.2% 23.2% 11.4% 10.2% Logistic Regression 3.5% 35.1% 19.7% 18.2% 17.0% 51.3% 32.8% 28.9% 26.1% 36.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/26/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 6.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 2.1% 0.6% 6.0% 0.8% 4.9% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 9.7% 3.7% 3.0% 2.6% 15.9% 6.9% 13.9% 7.4% 8.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 8.4% 2.6% 2.1% 1.9% 11.2% 4.8% 11.2% 5.1% 7.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 2.9% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0% 5.3% 3.4% 16.4% 6.4% 5.2% Logistic Regression 1.5% 16.4% 6.1% 5.2% 5.2% 26.4% 10.4% 11.4% 8.3% 12.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/26/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 3.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 6.4% 0.1% 2.3% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 12.0% 5.0% 4.2% 3.5% 20.2% 9.9% 19.6% 11.0% 15.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 9.1% 3.7% 2.8% 2.3% 13.6% 6.6% 15.1% 7.3% 10.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 4.0% 1.7% 1.2% 0.0% 6.7% 4.2% 19.9% 8.4% 9.8% Logistic Regression 2.0% 20.0% 8.4% 7.2% 7.0% 33.8% 15.6% 19.3% 13.7% 20.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/26/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 5.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 2.4% 0.2% 2.3% 0.3% 9.3% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 9.8% 3.9% 3.1% 2.6% 14.6% 6.1% 18.7% 9.1% 16.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 2.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 4.1% 2.3% 17.3% 6.7% 13.5% Logistic Regression 1.1% 17.0% 7.1% 5.9% 5.2% 25.1% 9.9% 20.1% 11.4% 18.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/26/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 3.5% 0.7% 1.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 9.9% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 3.5% 0.9% 5.6% 1.8% 10.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 3.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 2.6% 0.6% 4.0% 1.3% 10.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 5.9% 1.7% 11.5% Logistic Regression 0.3% 5.7% 1.6% 1.1% 1.1% 6.2% 1.3% 5.2% 1.9% 10.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/25/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 5.8% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 2.6% 0.6% 10.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 9.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.5% 0.5% 14.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 2.6% 0.4% 2.8% 0.7% 7.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/25/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 3.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 3.4% 0.8% 5.6% 1.5% 9.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 2.3% 0.5% 3.9% 1.0% 7.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 0.7% 6.8% 1.8% 12.2% Logistic Regression 0.3% 4.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 5.1% 1.0% 4.3% 1.2% 6.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/25/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.4% 16.9% 7.5% 2.4% 4.5% 4.7% 2.5% 15.5% 5.4% 20.9% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.8% 2.0% 1.6% 1.0% 4.2% 1.1% 9.2% 2.3% 18.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 8.8% 3.8% 1.8% 2.1% 4.3% 1.5% 11.3% 3.3% 19.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.6% 9.2% 2.6% 24.8% Logistic Regression 0.8% 7.9% 3.6% 2.9% 2.1% 6.2% 1.6% 9.3% 1.9% 12.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/25/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.7% 7.8% 5.3% 0.6% 0.8% 2.3% 0.6% 8.0% 1.9% 9.8% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% 1.9% 0.2% 9.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 4.6% 2.6% 0.7% 0.6% 1.5% 0.3% 3.9% 0.7% 9.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 14.3% Logistic Regression 0.5% 5.2% 2.3% 1.8% 1.1% 2.1% 0.4% 2.7% 0.4% 4.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/24/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.2% 43.5% 22.8% 12.0% 14.0% 14.0% 5.1% 9.8% 4.0% 9.2% RIPA Consensus 4.6% 18.5% 11.5% 9.0% 7.0% 7.2% 2.0% 5.9% 1.1% 8.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.7% 26.8% 15.2% 9.9% 9.3% 9.4% 3.0% 7.2% 2.0% 8.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.1% 13.7% 8.3% 3.8% 2.3% 6.8% 2.1% 5.1% 1.0% 10.3% Logistic Regression 5.0% 23.3% 14.7% 14.1% 11.7% 7.5% 1.9% 6.7% 1.2% 6.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/24/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.2% 14.4% 9.4% 6.0% 7.1% 7.9% 1.4% 5.3% 1.2% 19.2% RIPA Consensus 4.8% 9.7% 5.7% 4.5% 2.9% 3.9% 1.0% 2.3% 0.3% 3.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.8% 11.2% 6.9% 5.0% 4.3% 5.2% 1.0% 3.3% 0.6% 8.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.5% 7.7% 5.0% 3.2% 1.2% 4.4% 1.2% 1.2% 0.1% 2.8% Logistic Regression 4.0% 11.7% 6.4% 5.9% 4.7% 3.4% 0.7% 3.5% 0.5% 3.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/24/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.1% 8.5% 8.1% 4.3% 2.3% 6.7% 1.4% 6.1% 1.4% 6.6% RIPA Consensus 47.4% 53.3% 48.5% 48.5% 35.0% 25.9% 12.4% 9.1% 2.6% 4.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 34.0% 38.3% 35.0% 33.7% 24.0% 19.5% 8.7% 8.1% 2.1% 4.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 61.5% 53.5% 51.2% 51.2% 24.4% 27.6% 15.2% 8.1% 2.0% 1.2% Logistic Regression 33.4% 53.1% 45.8% 45.8% 45.5% 24.3% 9.7% 10.2% 3.2% 7.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/24/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.7% 30.1% 20.0% 12.6% 33.4% 24.5% 13.2% 27.3% 10.8% 11.5% RIPA Consensus 52.5% 60.9% 57.3% 55.9% 49.6% 32.1% 16.3% 9.2% 2.6% 1.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 40.9% 50.6% 44.9% 41.4% 44.1% 29.5% 15.2% 15.2% 5.3% 5.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 68.5% 61.0% 58.7% 55.7% 43.2% 35.3% 20.7% 10.2% 2.6% 1.0% Logistic Regression 36.5% 60.8% 56.0% 56.0% 56.0% 28.9% 11.8% 8.2% 2.6% 2.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Co-may at 07/23/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 26.9% 48.1% 31.8% 28.4% 27.6% 24.5% 13.2% 20.2% 13.5% 14.1% RIPA Consensus 52.2% 77.6% 75.2% 70.4% 63.5% 52.2% 34.1% 24.9% 11.7% 8.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 43.7% 67.7% 60.7% 56.4% 51.5% 42.9% 27.1% 23.3% 12.3% 10.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 62.4% 75.2% 71.9% 62.2% 48.4% 46.1% 30.6% 26.0% 10.8% 4.9% Logistic Regression 42.0% 79.9% 78.6% 78.6% 78.6% 58.3% 37.7% 23.7% 12.7% 12.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleven at 07/23/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 26.2% 44.7% 33.8% 28.0% 19.4% 26.9% 13.7% 24.6% 19.2% 14.7% RIPA Consensus 18.6% 70.6% 54.3% 47.1% 39.7% 59.9% 44.8% 46.4% 31.1% 27.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 21.1% 61.9% 47.4% 40.7% 32.9% 48.9% 34.4% 39.1% 27.0% 23.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.3% 62.9% 39.5% 25.2% 12.7% 42.7% 27.9% 46.9% 25.1% 22.9% Logistic Regression 22.9% 78.3% 69.0% 69.0% 66.8% 77.2% 61.7% 45.8% 37.0% 31.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleven at 07/23/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.0% 43.7% 27.5% 19.6% 11.3% 28.6% 13.7% 22.3% 17.3% 23.5% RIPA Consensus 18.0% 72.9% 54.6% 48.3% 38.7% 65.4% 51.1% 51.1% 37.0% 34.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.7% 63.2% 45.5% 38.7% 29.5% 53.1% 38.6% 41.4% 30.4% 30.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.3% 65.0% 37.7% 25.2% 9.8% 47.0% 30.1% 49.2% 25.2% 27.3% Logistic Regression 22.8% 80.9% 71.5% 71.5% 67.6% 83.9% 72.0% 52.9% 48.8% 41.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eleven at 07/23/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.2% 30.6% 10.1% 5.2% 5.7% 17.2% 8.3% 20.8% 5.9% 23.1% RIPA Consensus 14.6% 60.2% 41.6% 37.6% 29.5% 54.9% 43.2% 38.8% 28.4% 30.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.1% 50.3% 31.0% 26.8% 21.5% 42.3% 31.5% 32.8% 20.9% 28.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.3% 48.1% 24.8% 16.9% 5.0% 32.3% 22.9% 41.2% 22.8% 27.7% Logistic Regression 19.9% 72.2% 58.4% 58.4% 54.0% 77.6% 63.5% 36.4% 34.0% 33.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------