Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Twelve at 08/04/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 08/04/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 08/04/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                 Krosa at 08/03/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 1.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 08/03/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 08/03/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 08/03/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------               Krosa at 08/02/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 08/02/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 08/02/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 08/02/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 08/01/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 08/01/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.3% 8.3% 9.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 3.4% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 3.1% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 08/01/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.4% 18.1% 17.3% 6.4% 2.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.0% 6.8% 6.1% 2.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 08/01/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 9.2% 5.8% 0.5% 2.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 4.7% 3.0% 1.9% 1.5% 1.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.1% 5.0% 3.2% 1.1% 1.6% 1.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.3% 1.7% 1.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.2% 4.3% 2.2% 1.7% 1.4% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/31/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 6.5% 5.7% 0.4% 0.6% 1.3% 0.3% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 2.9% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 2.5% 1.1% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 4.1% 2.9% 0.8% 0.7% 2.1% 0.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.6% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 5.0% 2.5% 1.8% 1.6% 4.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/31/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 3.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 2.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 2.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/31/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 8.3% 3.8% 0.4% 2.3% 2.0% 0.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 3.2% 1.5% 1.1% 1.1% 2.5% 0.9% 4.4% 1.5% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 4.9% 2.3% 0.9% 1.5% 2.3% 0.7% 3.4% 1.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 6.6% 2.3% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 5.6% 2.4% 1.9% 1.9% 4.2% 1.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/31/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 5.0% 8.7% 5.5% 4.4% 4.2% 7.1% 3.6% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.8% 6.5% 3.8% 3.1% 2.9% 5.1% 2.5% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.4% 5.4% 5.2% 2.8% 2.5% 4.2% 3.6% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.5% 12.1% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 10.1% 3.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/30/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 1.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 2.4% 0.2% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 2.8% 10.0% 5.6% 4.7% 3.8% 10.3% 4.8% 11.0% 5.4% 3.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 7.0% 4.0% 3.1% 2.7% 7.0% 3.2% 8.1% 3.7% 2.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 5.1% 3.5% 2.4% 0.7% 4.3% 3.0% 17.5% 6.9% 2.2% Logistic Regression 3.2% 14.9% 7.7% 6.9% 6.9% 16.3% 6.6% 4.4% 4.0% 4.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/30/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 6.1% 2.9% 2.2% 1.9% 7.5% 3.1% 10.6% 5.0% 3.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 4.3% 2.1% 1.5% 1.2% 5.2% 2.1% 7.8% 3.3% 2.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 2.2% 1.5% 17.0% 6.5% 3.4% Logistic Regression 1.6% 10.1% 4.7% 4.0% 3.7% 12.8% 4.8% 4.2% 3.5% 4.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/30/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.9% 14.1% 9.0% 2.3% 1.9% 4.8% 2.2% 6.5% 0.6% 2.0% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 5.9% 3.0% 2.2% 2.2% 7.8% 3.5% 9.6% 4.5% 7.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 8.6% 5.0% 2.2% 2.0% 6.8% 3.0% 8.6% 3.1% 5.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 1.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 2.7% 1.9% 13.9% 5.2% 6.5% Logistic Regression 1.6% 10.1% 4.8% 4.0% 4.0% 12.9% 5.0% 5.4% 3.7% 7.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/30/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 5.9% 3.8% 0.3% 0.8% 1.2% 0.8% 3.3% 0.1% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 5.8% 2.8% 2.2% 2.2% 6.6% 2.6% 9.6% 4.0% 7.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 5.8% 3.1% 1.5% 1.7% 4.7% 2.0% 7.5% 2.6% 5.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 3.1% 1.7% 14.5% 5.2% 8.7% Logistic Regression 1.3% 9.7% 4.4% 3.9% 3.9% 10.0% 3.5% 4.7% 2.8% 6.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/29/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 1.0% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 5.7% 3.1% 2.6% 2.4% 5.6% 2.0% 7.6% 2.6% 6.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 4.5% 2.2% 1.8% 1.5% 4.1% 1.4% 5.5% 1.7% 4.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 2.5% 2.1% 1.2% 0.7% 4.4% 2.1% 11.2% 3.5% 9.1% Logistic Regression 2.1% 8.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 6.8% 1.9% 3.9% 1.6% 4.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/29/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 9.2% 3.4% 1.3% 0.9% 1.2% 0.1% 3.2% 0.2% 1.0% RIPA Consensus 5.9% 18.2% 13.4% 11.6% 11.6% 12.0% 5.0% 10.6% 3.9% 6.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.1% 15.1% 10.0% 8.1% 8.0% 8.4% 3.4% 8.1% 2.6% 4.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.3% 11.6% 9.5% 5.9% 5.9% 8.7% 4.4% 12.7% 4.1% 5.9% Logistic Regression 5.5% 24.8% 17.2% 17.2% 17.2% 15.4% 5.7% 8.5% 3.7% 6.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/29/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 2.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 1.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 5.7% 2.8% 2.4% 2.4% 3.3% 0.9% 4.2% 1.0% 5.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 4.6% 2.3% 1.6% 1.6% 2.3% 0.6% 3.1% 0.7% 4.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 2.1% 0.7% 4.7% 1.1% 7.9% Logistic Regression 1.3% 9.6% 4.7% 4.3% 4.3% 4.5% 1.1% 3.6% 0.9% 3.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/28/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.7% Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.9% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/28/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 2.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 0.2% 1.2% 0.1% 2.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 3.4% Logistic Regression 0.6% 3.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.7% 1.2% 0.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/28/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 3.8% 5.7% 4.5% 3.8% 3.2% 2.5% 0.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.6% 4.1% 3.0% 2.6% 2.2% 1.8% 0.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.2% 4.4% 4.4% 3.0% 1.7% 3.5% 1.3% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.4% 7.1% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 1.6% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/28/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 3.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 1.0% RIPA Consensus 17.1% 32.4% 32.4% 32.4% 24.7% 22.3% 8.7% 12.6% 0.0% 3.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.2% 22.7% 21.8% 21.8% 16.6% 15.0% 5.8% 8.6% 0.0% 2.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 22.3% 27.5% 27.5% 27.5% 12.1% 31.6% 12.6% 15.7% 0.0% 3.6% Logistic Regression 11.8% 37.4% 37.4% 37.4% 37.4% 12.9% 4.7% 9.4% 0.0% 3.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/27/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.9% 22.6% 24.0% 9.0% 5.1% 6.9% 2.9% 3.1% 0.1% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 59.7% 84.7% 84.7% 84.7% 69.9% 66.7% 45.6% 33.7% 0.0% 10.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 47.4% 64.0% 64.5% 59.5% 48.3% 46.7% 31.4% 23.5% 0.0% 7.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 69.2% 82.0% 82.0% 82.0% 52.3% 63.0% 33.6% 23.6% 0.0% 4.4% Logistic Regression 50.2% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5% 87.5% 70.4% 57.7% 43.9% 0.0% 17.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/27/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.1% 25.4% 22.1% 2.7% 1.9% 9.8% 3.4% 2.6% 0.7% 3.0% RIPA Consensus 3.4% 15.0% 9.5% 9.1% 6.6% 9.4% 3.2% 5.5% 1.1% 2.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.5% 18.4% 13.7% 7.0% 5.0% 9.5% 3.2% 4.5% 0.9% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.8% 10.0% 6.7% 5.9% 1.4% 7.5% 2.7% 2.4% 0.4% 1.3% Logistic Regression 2.9% 20.0% 12.4% 12.4% 11.7% 11.3% 3.6% 8.7% 1.8% 3.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/27/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.2% 19.2% 10.5% 12.7% 2.1% 8.5% 4.5% 2.1% 0.8% 4.8% RIPA Consensus 7.3% 29.7% 21.6% 21.6% 13.9% 19.6% 7.9% 12.4% 3.3% 5.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.6% 26.2% 17.9% 18.6% 9.9% 15.9% 6.8% 8.9% 2.4% 5.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.5% 23.2% 14.8% 14.8% 4.1% 13.7% 5.1% 5.9% 1.3% 3.0% Logistic Regression 5.1% 36.2% 28.4% 28.4% 23.7% 25.6% 10.8% 18.8% 5.3% 7.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/27/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.9% 18.8% 17.8% 5.4% 3.7% 6.4% 2.1% 3.7% 0.3% 4.0% RIPA Consensus 13.2% 41.3% 29.4% 28.4% 21.3% 29.1% 13.3% 18.0% 6.0% 8.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 13.1% 33.8% 25.5% 20.7% 15.4% 21.5% 9.6% 13.2% 4.0% 7.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 17.1% 37.2% 22.7% 20.9% 10.5% 22.5% 9.7% 11.7% 3.4% 5.1% Logistic Regression 9.4% 45.5% 36.0% 36.0% 32.1% 35.6% 17.0% 24.4% 8.5% 12.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/26/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.9% 14.6% 9.4% 5.0% 2.0% 6.7% 1.8% 2.6% 1.5% 5.0% RIPA Consensus 10.8% 40.1% 24.9% 20.5% 19.2% 25.2% 9.2% 23.2% 8.1% 18.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.8% 31.6% 19.7% 15.3% 13.4% 19.0% 6.7% 16.3% 5.8% 14.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.8% 36.1% 19.8% 11.2% 10.4% 22.8% 8.1% 22.4% 8.1% 20.5% Logistic Regression 8.7% 44.1% 29.9% 29.9% 27.9% 27.6% 10.3% 24.1% 8.1% 17.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/26/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 9.2% 3.5% 2.3% 1.8% 5.3% 1.1% 5.9% 1.2% 5.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 6.7% 2.5% 1.5% 1.2% 3.7% 0.8% 4.2% 0.8% 3.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.3% 7.7% 3.2% 1.1% 0.9% 4.4% 1.0% 6.4% 1.2% 6.1% Logistic Regression 1.4% 10.6% 3.8% 3.5% 2.7% 6.2% 1.3% 5.5% 1.3% 4.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/26/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 2.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 4.7% 16.7% 7.3% 4.6% 3.9% 8.2% 2.0% 9.7% 2.7% 9.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.7% 12.1% 5.3% 3.1% 2.6% 6.0% 1.4% 6.7% 2.0% 7.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.6% 16.1% 8.2% 3.1% 2.4% 7.9% 2.2% 13.0% 3.5% 12.4% Logistic Regression 2.8% 17.3% 6.5% 6.1% 5.4% 8.5% 1.8% 6.5% 1.8% 7.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/26/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 6.9% 2.1% 1.2% 1.0% 4.4% 0.8% 5.6% 1.1% 7.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 4.8% 1.4% 0.8% 0.6% 3.1% 0.5% 3.7% 0.8% 5.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 6.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 4.1% 0.7% 7.8% 1.5% 11.2% Logistic Regression 1.1% 7.6% 2.2% 1.9% 1.5% 4.7% 0.8% 3.3% 0.8% 4.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/25/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 9.6% 3.5% 1.9% 1.4% 5.4% 1.0% 6.8% 1.6% 9.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 6.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.9% 3.5% 0.7% 4.6% 1.0% 6.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.3% 9.6% 4.3% 1.5% 0.7% 5.5% 1.2% 10.9% 2.5% 14.2% Logistic Regression 1.4% 9.5% 2.6% 2.3% 2.0% 5.2% 0.9% 2.7% 0.8% 4.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/25/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 9.0% 2.9% 1.4% 1.2% 4.3% 0.7% 6.8% 1.5% 9.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 6.0% 1.9% 0.9% 0.8% 2.9% 0.4% 4.5% 1.0% 6.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.6% 9.6% 3.8% 1.1% 0.8% 4.8% 0.8% 11.3% 2.4% 16.1% Logistic Regression 0.9% 8.4% 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 3.9% 0.6% 2.3% 0.6% 3.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/25/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 14.1% 4.6% 2.8% 1.6% 5.5% 1.0% 9.2% 2.5% 12.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 9.8% 3.2% 1.8% 1.0% 3.8% 0.7% 6.2% 1.6% 8.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 14.6% 5.2% 2.0% 0.4% 4.6% 0.9% 15.4% 3.9% 20.2% Logistic Regression 0.9% 13.6% 4.0% 3.6% 2.8% 6.4% 1.2% 3.0% 1.0% 5.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/25/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 13.1% 4.4% 2.3% 1.6% 7.0% 1.4% 10.0% 2.9% 12.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 8.9% 2.9% 1.5% 1.0% 4.8% 0.9% 6.8% 1.9% 8.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 13.7% 5.2% 1.5% 0.7% 6.6% 1.5% 17.3% 4.8% 20.8% Logistic Regression 1.0% 12.4% 3.5% 3.1% 2.5% 7.3% 1.3% 2.8% 1.0% 5.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/24/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 15.1% 4.8% 3.2% 1.5% 10.8% 2.6% 15.3% 5.6% 18.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 10.4% 3.4% 2.1% 1.0% 7.5% 1.8% 10.4% 3.7% 13.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 15.0% 5.1% 2.3% 0.2% 8.6% 2.4% 25.8% 8.9% 29.3% Logistic Regression 1.2% 15.3% 4.6% 4.0% 2.9% 13.1% 2.9% 4.8% 2.2% 8.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/24/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 4.0% 0.6% 17.6% 6.7% 25.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 3.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 2.7% 0.4% 11.7% 4.5% 17.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 4.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 3.7% 0.7% 32.9% 12.4% 45.3% Logistic Regression 0.3% 5.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 4.2% 0.6% 2.4% 1.0% 6.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Krosa at 07/24/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 6.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 3.6% 0.6% 9.6% 2.7% 15.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 2.8% 0.4% 6.5% 1.9% 10.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 5.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 3.0% 0.5% 18.0% 4.8% 27.6% Logistic Regression 0.4% 6.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 4.2% 0.6% 1.3% 0.5% 3.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twelve at 07/24/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 2.3% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 10.9% 2.6% 1.5% 0.8% 8.4% 1.9% 16.3% 6.6% 27.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 7.3% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 5.7% 1.2% 11.1% 4.5% 19.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 9.9% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% 4.4% 1.1% 28.4% 10.4% 44.8% Logistic Regression 0.7% 11.9% 2.9% 2.4% 1.6% 12.5% 2.6% 4.3% 2.8% 10.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                 Twelve at 07/23/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 1.1% 0.9% 4.1% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 10.1% 2.6% 1.3% 0.8% 9.7% 2.3% 15.9% 6.3% 25.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 6.8% 1.7% 0.8% 0.5% 6.7% 1.6% 10.9% 4.4% 18.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 8.6% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 6.0% 1.9% 28.3% 10.3% 41.7% Logistic Regression 0.8% 11.5% 2.8% 2.3% 1.6% 13.4% 2.8% 3.5% 2.2% 9.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------