Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Fourteen intensity image current Fourteen RI diff image

 


Fourteen at 08/05/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 11.2% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 4.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0%
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Fourteen at 08/05/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 17.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 3.3% 0.2% 4.9% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 1.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 6.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.3% 1.4% 0.3% 2.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 3.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 2.6%
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Fourteen at 08/04/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 1.8% 0.1% 4.9% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
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Fourteen at 08/04/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.1% 0.1% 6.9% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 2.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3%
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Fourteen at 08/04/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 4.9% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
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