Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Podul at 08/14/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 3.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 5.5% 2.6% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 3.4% 1.2% 16.5% 6.4% 3.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 2.8% 0.9% 12.8% 5.1% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 22.1% 11.0% 3.5% Logistic Regression 0.4% 4.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6% 6.5% 2.1% 11.0% 1.9% 2.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/13/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 3.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 3.1% 1.3% 4.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/13/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 5.8% 3.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% 6.6% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/13/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 9.6% 5.2% 2.5% 3.1% 4.1% 1.3% 6.5% 1.2% 7.6% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 4.7% 3.0% 3.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.9% 6.3% 3.7% 2.8% 2.1% 2.1% 0.5% 2.4% 0.3% 2.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.7% 2.8% 1.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.4% 6.6% 4.3% 4.3% 2.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/13/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.3% 23.7% 9.7% 1.3% 3.2% 9.7% 1.4% 3.9% 0.2% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 14.2% 10.9% 8.3% 8.3% 5.2% 7.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 13.2% 15.1% 8.7% 5.9% 4.5% 8.1% 1.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 22.0% 10.9% 9.5% 9.5% 5.2% 10.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.5% 10.8% 7.0% 7.0% 5.1% 4.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/12/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.3% 20.0% 11.7% 8.7% 1.8% 4.6% 0.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 23.9% 18.3% 15.0% 15.0% 10.5% 6.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.7% 18.8% 13.9% 12.9% 7.6% 5.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 38.7% 19.5% 18.7% 18.7% 11.3% 8.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 9.2% 17.0% 11.3% 11.3% 9.7% 4.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Podul at 08/12/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.3% 13.4% 5.8% 1.1% 0.3% 3.4% 0.3% 1.6% 0.0% 1.4% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.3% 13.2% 9.0% 7.4% 5.2% 4.1% 0.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/12/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.7% 14.9% 9.3% 1.1% 2.5% 2.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 9.1% 12.0% 7.8% 7.2% 4.8% 2.8% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.6% 12.9% 8.3% 5.1% 4.0% 2.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.5% 11.1% 8.1% 6.7% 3.8% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 5.7% 12.9% 7.6% 7.6% 5.9% 3.2% 0.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/12/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.9% 12.0% 14.4% 2.0% 1.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 2.6% RIPA Consensus 9.5% 12.1% 8.3% 7.3% 5.6% 3.9% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.3% 12.0% 10.3% 5.5% 4.2% 3.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.0% 11.3% 10.3% 8.3% 5.1% 4.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 5.0% 12.9% 6.4% 6.4% 6.2% 3.8% 0.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/11/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.8% 5.6% 6.6% 2.2% 2.6% 1.9% 0.6% 1.4% 0.1% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 13.6% 22.7% 16.7% 16.7% 10.0% 6.2% 1.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.9% 16.9% 13.2% 11.8% 7.5% 4.8% 1.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 17.3% 20.3% 16.3% 16.3% 5.7% 5.0% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 9.8% 25.0% 17.0% 17.0% 14.2% 7.5% 2.0% 2.3% 0.7% 1.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Podul at 08/11/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 5.4% 2.5% 1.9% 1.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 4.1% 1.8% 1.2% 1.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.3% 3.2% 1.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.7% 7.5% 3.1% 2.7% 2.3% 2.4% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/11/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 3.2% 7.7% 3.7% 3.1% 2.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.2% 5.3% 2.6% 2.1% 1.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.0% 5.5% 3.2% 2.2% 1.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 2.3% 9.9% 4.2% 4.1% 3.1% 3.6% 0.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/11/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 5.3% 2.5% 2.0% 1.7% 1.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 3.5% 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.1% 3.5% 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.6% 7.1% 2.8% 2.6% 2.1% 2.4% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/10/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 2.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.7% 3.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/10/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/10/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/10/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 2.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.2% 3.7% 1.5% 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/09/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 2.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 4.3% 7.0% 3.6% 3.6% 2.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.5% 5.6% 3.0% 2.5% 1.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.2% 4.4% 2.7% 2.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.4% 9.6% 4.6% 4.5% 3.2% 2.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/09/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 5.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 2.7% 8.6% 4.2% 3.9% 2.4% 2.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 7.4% 3.4% 2.7% 1.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 4.9% 2.3% 1.9% 0.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.0% 12.3% 6.1% 5.8% 4.2% 4.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/09/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 4.4% 10.1% 5.4% 4.8% 3.3% 4.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.0% 7.5% 3.9% 3.2% 2.2% 3.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.8% 6.3% 4.1% 3.2% 1.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.9% 14.0% 6.7% 6.4% 5.4% 6.3% 1.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/09/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 3.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 7.4% 15.7% 8.9% 7.6% 6.2% 6.0% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.5% 11.5% 6.4% 5.2% 4.3% 4.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.5% 9.9% 6.3% 3.9% 2.6% 3.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 7.3% 21.6% 11.5% 11.4% 9.8% 8.9% 2.4% 1.4% 0.4% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/08/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 7.1% 2.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 6.4% 18.6% 10.8% 9.1% 7.3% 8.3% 2.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.8% 14.7% 8.1% 6.3% 5.1% 6.1% 2.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.7% 11.2% 7.0% 4.1% 2.1% 3.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 7.1% 25.9% 14.5% 14.1% 12.4% 12.8% 4.1% 2.5% 1.0% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/08/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.4% 17.5% 9.2% 3.1% 4.1% 7.6% 2.6% 6.5% 2.6% 1.9% RIPA Consensus 7.0% 23.6% 15.0% 13.6% 9.9% 14.8% 6.7% 4.7% 1.6% 3.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.8% 21.5% 13.0% 10.0% 7.9% 12.4% 5.3% 5.3% 1.9% 2.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.0% 14.3% 9.2% 6.7% 2.2% 7.0% 4.0% 3.4% 0.6% 1.9% Logistic Regression 8.0% 32.9% 20.7% 20.4% 17.6% 22.7% 9.3% 6.0% 2.6% 4.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sixteen at 08/08/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 12.2% 2.5% 0.8% 0.1% 1.4% 0.5% 3.6% 0.8% 1.2% RIPA Consensus 4.2% 13.7% 7.2% 5.3% 4.7% 11.5% 4.9% 6.3% 2.1% 3.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 13.1% 5.6% 3.8% 3.1% 8.1% 3.4% 5.3% 1.7% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.6% 7.3% 5.4% 2.7% 1.4% 6.1% 4.1% 7.6% 1.9% 2.8% Logistic Regression 4.8% 20.0% 9.1% 8.0% 8.0% 16.9% 5.7% 5.0% 2.4% 4.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Podul at 08/08/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 2.0% 0.1% 2.7% RIPA Consensus 10.9% 25.7% 16.5% 13.2% 13.2% 21.3% 11.2% 12.4% 5.3% 5.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.4% 17.4% 11.0% 8.8% 8.7% 14.2% 7.4% 8.9% 3.6% 4.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.4% 17.5% 14.6% 8.0% 8.0% 13.8% 10.4% 15.0% 5.4% 4.4% Logistic Regression 10.4% 34.0% 18.4% 18.4% 18.4% 28.8% 11.9% 9.8% 5.3% 7.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sixteen at 08/07/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 4.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 6.1% 0.2% 2.7% RIPA Consensus 4.4% 21.0% 11.7% 8.2% 7.7% 19.6% 10.0% 17.6% 8.7% 13.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 15.4% 7.9% 5.5% 5.2% 13.2% 6.7% 13.7% 5.8% 9.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.4% 12.1% 8.2% 3.1% 2.4% 10.3% 7.6% 22.4% 9.5% 12.8% Logistic Regression 5.4% 29.9% 15.2% 13.3% 13.0% 28.9% 12.4% 12.7% 7.9% 13.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Sixteen at 08/07/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 37.7% 18.0% 3.6% 3.8% 9.8% 4.8% 20.3% 6.7% 13.5% RIPA Consensus 5.5% 24.7% 14.0% 10.3% 9.0% 26.9% 15.6% 22.9% 12.7% 21.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.5% 29.0% 15.3% 8.0% 7.2% 21.2% 12.0% 22.0% 10.6% 18.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.2% 15.0% 9.6% 4.0% 2.3% 15.3% 12.2% 27.6% 13.4% 18.7% Logistic Regression 6.7% 34.4% 18.5% 16.6% 15.7% 38.5% 19.1% 18.2% 11.9% 23.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sixteen at 08/07/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 16.5% 8.8% 1.7% 0.5% 8.8% 3.7% 24.0% 8.8% 31.9% RIPA Consensus 7.1% 30.9% 17.9% 14.8% 10.9% 35.7% 24.8% 33.6% 23.5% 33.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.2% 26.1% 14.8% 10.4% 7.4% 26.7% 17.8% 30.4% 18.5% 32.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.9% 20.4% 13.0% 8.4% 1.6% 18.0% 16.2% 41.5% 23.7% 27.5% Logistic Regression 8.3% 41.5% 22.8% 21.2% 20.1% 53.3% 33.5% 25.7% 23.3% 39.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Sixteen at 08/07/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 16.5% 6.2% 1.7% 0.6% 7.6% 3.4% 20.1% 7.9% 27.7% RIPA Consensus 4.3% 32.4% 17.7% 12.6% 11.5% 39.4% 27.6% 41.7% 29.0% 51.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 27.0% 13.9% 8.9% 7.8% 28.8% 19.5% 34.5% 21.9% 43.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.3% 19.3% 10.5% 2.9% 2.6% 19.4% 17.4% 49.0% 25.5% 48.7% Logistic Regression 6.3% 45.5% 25.0% 22.3% 20.4% 59.4% 37.9% 34.4% 32.5% 54.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------