Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Seventeen intensity image current Seventeen RI diff image

 


Seventeen at 08/19/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 3.5% 0.9% 0.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 5.2% 1.7% 0.3%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 0.3%
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Seventeen at 08/19/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 7.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 1.3% 1.3% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3%
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Seventeen at 08/18/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 8.3% 4.9% 0.3% 2.1% 2.6% 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% 3.4% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 2.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.5% 2.2% 0.5% 1.0% 2.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.8% 4.8% 1.6% 1.3% 0.9% 3.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
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Seventeen at 08/18/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 6.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 28.8% RIPA Consensus 2.9% 16.8% 9.1% 9.1% 4.7% 11.0% 4.6% 0.5% 1.3% 1.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 13.2% 6.4% 6.1% 3.1% 7.4% 3.0% 0.6% 0.8% 10.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 8.4% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 3.9% 25.2% 12.5% 12.5% 9.3% 20.9% 8.6% 0.1% 2.4% 2.4%
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Seventeen at 08/18/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 5.5% 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 11.1% 3.7% 19.4% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 6.0% 2.2% 2.1% 1.2% 6.4% 2.1% 1.3% 0.7% 0.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 5.8% 2.2% 1.4% 0.7% 4.6% 1.4% 4.5% 1.7% 7.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 1.0% 10.5% 4.0% 3.7% 2.3% 12.5% 4.0% 2.5% 1.4% 1.7%
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