Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)                                                               Eighteen at 08/22/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/22/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lingling at 08/22/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lingling at 08/22/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lingling at 08/21/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 3.5% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lingling at 08/21/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 0.1% 3.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Lingling at 08/21/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 3.1% 1.5% 1.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/21/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.9% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/20/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.3% 3.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/20/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/20/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 8.3% 3.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 8.3% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 4.7% 1.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.3% 5.3% 1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/20/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 3.5% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 2.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.3% 6.2% 2.1% 1.7% 1.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/19/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.7% 4.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 2.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/19/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 5.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 16.6% 8.0% 7.3% 5.4% 11.0% 4.5% 2.1% 1.0% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 12.9% 5.7% 5.0% 3.8% 7.7% 3.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.4% 7.4% 3.7% 2.9% 0.3% 2.0% 1.2% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.2% 25.8% 12.3% 11.6% 10.6% 20.0% 7.7% 2.9% 1.9% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Eighteen at 08/19/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.8% 14.0% 4.1% 1.4% 1.4% 5.2% 0.9% 4.2% 0.9% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 4.4% 25.1% 13.6% 12.3% 9.8% 21.3% 11.2% 5.4% 2.9% 0.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.2% 21.4% 10.4% 8.6% 7.0% 15.9% 7.7% 5.0% 2.2% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.0% 13.5% 7.6% 5.2% 1.2% 5.8% 3.8% 5.0% 1.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 5.9% 36.8% 19.5% 19.4% 18.5% 36.8% 18.6% 5.8% 4.7% 1.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------