Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Nineteen intensity image current Nineteen RI diff image

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Nineteen at 08/26/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nineteen at 08/26/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kajiki at 08/26/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


 


 


 


 


Kajiki at 08/26/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kajiki at 08/25/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kajiki at 08/25/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.2% 14.5% 4.3% 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 0.1% 4.7% 1.3% 8.1% RIPA Consensus 3.1% 6.8% 4.8% 4.8% 3.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 9.3% 4.6% 3.3% 2.5% 1.3% 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 2.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.5% 4.0% 2.7% 2.7% 0.4% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 3.7% 9.6% 6.9% 6.9% 5.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kajiki at 08/25/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.6% 27.5% 17.1% 6.9% 4.8% 12.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.8% 11.1% RIPA Consensus 8.0% 8.8% 6.7% 6.7% 4.2% 5.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.8% 15.0% 10.1% 6.7% 4.3% 7.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 3.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.3% 6.8% 6.0% 6.0% 1.5% 8.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 5.7% 10.7% 7.3% 7.3% 6.8% 2.3% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kajiki at 08/25/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 22.5% 11.3% 5.6% 0.8% 4.9% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 1.2% RIPA Consensus 5.8% 8.4% 6.1% 5.7% 3.9% 5.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.5% 13.0% 7.8% 5.6% 2.8% 5.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.8% 6.1% 4.7% 4.2% 1.1% 8.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 4.9% 10.6% 7.4% 7.2% 6.7% 2.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kajiki at 08/24/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.9% 13.7% 11.0% 5.3% 1.6% 12.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 14.0% 29.6% 25.5% 25.5% 17.9% 14.8% 2.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.6% 24.3% 20.6% 18.7% 12.4% 14.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.8% 24.5% 17.5% 17.5% 6.3% 20.8% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 13.2% 34.8% 33.5% 33.5% 29.4% 8.8% 2.8% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kajiki at 08/24/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 27.7% 25.0% 21.1% 12.0% 6.2% 19.1% 2.0% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 52.4% 57.2% 57.2% 57.2% 47.1% 39.4% 14.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 44.1% 46.4% 45.1% 42.1% 33.4% 32.6% 10.2% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 66.9% 56.8% 56.8% 56.8% 36.8% 50.5% 14.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 37.8% 57.6% 57.6% 57.6% 57.3% 28.2% 14.7% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kajiki at 08/24/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 21.0% 32.4% 29.5% 23.6% 20.7% 20.1% 6.0% 4.0% 1.3% 3.7% RIPA Consensus 62.3% 79.0% 79.0% 79.0% 60.5% 57.5% 31.8% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 48.5% 63.4% 62.5% 60.5% 47.2% 45.0% 23.2% 7.3% 0.4% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 72.4% 78.6% 78.6% 78.6% 42.2% 61.7% 26.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 52.2% 79.4% 79.4% 79.4% 78.9% 53.3% 37.7% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kajiki at 08/24/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 15.0% 35.3% 28.4% 30.2% 14.6% 10.5% 3.3% 11.4% 6.8% 4.3% RIPA Consensus 43.6% 73.8% 73.8% 73.8% 52.0% 53.6% 37.4% 19.8% 8.2% 4.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 34.1% 60.9% 58.6% 59.2% 39.5% 39.1% 26.0% 17.0% 7.7% 4.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 46.4% 65.7% 65.7% 65.7% 22.6% 43.0% 26.4% 4.5% 1.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 40.9% 81.8% 81.8% 81.8% 81.4% 64.1% 48.3% 35.1% 15.3% 8.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kajiki at 08/23/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 24.5% 37.2% 23.0% 28.2% 12.3% 17.8% 4.5% 17.4% 8.8% 6.0% RIPA Consensus 33.0% 67.7% 63.7% 63.7% 48.5% 53.5% 37.2% 24.1% 11.6% 6.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 30.2% 57.5% 50.1% 51.8% 36.4% 41.5% 26.3% 21.8% 10.7% 6.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 33.6% 58.6% 50.7% 50.7% 21.5% 41.0% 24.6% 7.8% 2.3% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 32.5% 76.7% 76.7% 76.7% 75.4% 65.9% 49.8% 40.3% 21.0% 13.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kajiki at 08/23/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.5% 38.7% 25.5% 13.1% 5.9% 14.9% 3.2% 2.4% 1.6% 4.4% RIPA Consensus 18.4% 53.4% 43.4% 43.4% 33.8% 45.0% 28.5% 26.9% 13.5% 9.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.7% 48.5% 37.4% 33.3% 24.5% 34.9% 20.0% 18.7% 9.5% 7.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 18.8% 44.5% 30.6% 30.6% 12.4% 34.1% 20.1% 16.1% 5.8% 1.7%
Logistic Regression 18.0% 62.3% 56.3% 56.3% 55.3% 55.8% 36.9% 37.8% 21.3% 17.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kajiki at 08/23/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.3% 34.4% 15.1% 4.7% 3.1% 12.0% 4.4% 10.4% 1.2% 11.0% RIPA Consensus 13.3% 57.2% 42.2% 40.9% 31.0% 53.9% 38.0% 47.4% 33.1% 29.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.6% 49.6% 33.1% 28.8% 21.7% 39.9% 26.8% 35.0% 22.5% 23.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.4% 47.6% 27.3% 24.6% 7.6% 37.2% 22.4% 37.7% 19.9% 13.3%
Logistic Regression 14.3% 66.8% 57.2% 57.2% 54.4% 70.6% 53.6% 57.0% 46.4% 45.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nineteen at 08/23/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.5% 39.6% 19.2% 8.7% 5.0% 10.6% 5.2% 6.0% 2.1% 26.2% RIPA Consensus 11.9% 49.9% 33.7% 33.2% 23.7% 51.7% 36.4% 45.3% 33.6% 36.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.7% 46.5% 28.8% 25.0% 17.4% 38.0% 25.9% 32.1% 23.1% 32.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.9% 40.6% 23.0% 22.1% 4.6% 34.3% 21.4% 39.9% 21.7% 19.1%
Logistic Regression 11.9% 59.3% 44.4% 44.4% 42.8% 69.1% 51.3% 50.7% 45.6% 53.6%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nineteen at 08/22/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.1% 38.3% 18.1% 11.4% 3.7% 19.8% 8.3% 9.0% 7.1% 27.9% RIPA Consensus 8.2% 46.9% 31.0% 31.0% 19.3% 47.9% 34.7% 37.6% 29.1% 39.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.8% 44.0% 26.6% 24.4% 14.0% 38.5% 25.9% 28.0% 21.8% 35.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.8% 32.9% 16.4% 16.4% 1.0% 22.7% 12.7% 28.8% 13.0% 18.6%
Logistic Regression 10.5% 60.9% 45.5% 45.5% 37.5% 73.0% 56.7% 46.4% 45.3% 61.1%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Nineteen at 08/22/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.7% 13.9% 3.4% 1.4% 0.0% 2.9% 0.8% 8.0% 4.3% 4.6% RIPA Consensus 2.1% 26.2% 12.0% 10.9% 7.1% 31.9% 17.1% 40.5% 28.4% 58.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 22.1% 9.1% 7.7% 4.7% 22.2% 11.6% 29.7% 20.3% 40.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 14.5% 4.3% 2.7% 0.2% 12.2% 5.6% 38.4% 20.5% 47.5%
Logistic Regression 3.3% 38.0% 19.8% 19.0% 14.1% 51.6% 28.6% 42.7% 36.3% 70.3%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------