Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Nongfa at 09/02/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 30.2% 10.9% 1.3% 0.7% 5.9% 0.7% 8.7% 3.5% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 3.5% 24.2% 14.7% 14.7% 8.6% 26.1% 16.3% 7.0% 9.1% 7.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.0% 26.2% 13.4% 10.2% 5.9% 19.3% 11.1% 7.6% 7.2% 5.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 9.6% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 4.2% 2.5% 10.3% 3.8% 1.2% Logistic Regression 6.2% 38.8% 24.3% 24.3% 17.2% 47.9% 30.1% 3.8% 14.4% 14.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty at 09/01/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.6% 35.9% 17.4% 5.6% 1.6% 19.0% 3.2% 27.6% 12.4% 18.6% RIPA Consensus 6.2% 41.0% 27.9% 27.9% 18.8% 46.8% 38.4% 17.3% 32.5% 36.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.6% 39.2% 24.4% 20.5% 13.1% 37.5% 26.7% 20.7% 25.8% 30.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.2% 22.1% 10.1% 10.1% 0.4% 16.5% 11.1% 23.4% 11.2% 12.9% Logistic Regression 10.2% 59.8% 45.8% 45.8% 37.3% 77.2% 65.8% 11.2% 53.8% 59.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nongfa at 09/01/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 22.1% 10.7% 3.5% 1.0% 10.9% 0.9% 16.5% 17.4% 3.0% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 8.7% 3.4% 2.8% 2.0% 12.6% 6.1% 8.2% 6.7% 9.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 13.1% 5.8% 3.0% 1.7% 12.0% 4.4% 10.9% 10.2% 6.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 11.7% 4.7% 1.8% Logistic Regression 1.3% 15.5% 6.2% 5.1% 4.1% 24.4% 11.4% 4.7% 8.8% 16.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty at 09/01/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 21.0% 5.7% 0.5% 0.4% 1.4% 0.2% 10.9% 4.3% 2.5% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 15.9% 6.9% 6.2% 3.9% 23.8% 13.9% 10.2% 12.4% 18.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 17.6% 6.4% 4.2% 2.7% 16.3% 9.3% 10.4% 9.7% 12.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 5.5% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 3.5% 2.4% 14.5% 5.9% 4.8% Logistic Regression 1.7% 26.4% 12.0% 10.6% 7.9% 44.1% 25.4% 5.9% 18.9% 31.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty at 09/01/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 13.3% 2.9% 0.9% 0.5% 5.9% 1.0% 6.2% 4.3% 7.9% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 17.1% 7.6% 7.0% 4.1% 31.2% 20.5% 14.4% 21.5% 37.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 15.8% 6.0% 4.9% 2.8% 22.7% 14.0% 11.6% 15.7% 27.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 5.8% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 6.0% 3.8% 20.2% 8.7% 16.2% Logistic Regression 2.1% 28.3% 13.5% 12.3% 8.1% 56.4% 37.2% 8.7% 34.4% 59.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                 Twenty at 08/31/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 13.2% 3.3% 0.7% 0.4% 4.2% 0.7% 3.0% 2.2% 4.7% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 14.2% 5.8% 5.3% 3.1% 26.5% 15.8% 19.2% 14.9% 35.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 13.8% 4.9% 3.7% 2.1% 19.0% 10.7% 13.7% 10.7% 25.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 4.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.8% 2.3% 13.2% 4.9% 15.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 23.8% 10.6% 9.5% 6.1% 49.2% 29.3% 25.2% 25.0% 56.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                             Twenty at 08/31/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 9.9% 3.0% 1.6% 0.4% 3.5% 0.4% 6.2% 2.9% 17.1% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 5.2% 1.8% 1.5% 1.1% 11.0% 4.4% 7.0% 5.1% 18.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 6.7% 2.1% 1.5% 0.8% 8.4% 3.1% 6.7% 4.3% 18.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 2.2% 0.5% 4.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 9.7% 3.3% 2.8% 2.2% 21.4% 8.5% 11.8% 9.6% 33.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty at 08/31/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 5.3% 1.5% 2.6% 1.7% 11.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 3.6% 1.0% 1.7% 1.3% 7.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2.7% Logistic Regression 0.3% 5.2% 1.5% 1.2% 0.9% 10.4% 3.0% 4.6% 3.4% 19.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty at 08/31/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 13.8% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 1.1% 0.5% 4.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 7.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 2.3% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 3.2% 0.6% 1.8% 0.8% 7.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nongfa at 08/30/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 2.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 2.6% 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 3.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nongfa at 08/30/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 7.4% 2.9% 0.8% 0.6% 2.3% 0.2% 0.9% 1.0% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 3.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 2.0% 0.4% 1.6% 0.5% 5.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nongfa at 08/30/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 4.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 4.2% 0.5% 5.8% 4.5% 6.7% RIPA Consensus 4.8% 19.9% 11.5% 11.5% 8.3% 15.6% 6.9% 5.2% 2.7% 4.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.3% 14.6% 7.9% 7.7% 5.5% 11.8% 4.8% 5.3% 3.2% 5.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.3% 11.0% 5.8% 5.8% 1.2% 4.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 5.2% 28.8% 17.1% 17.1% 15.4% 26.8% 12.1% 10.1% 5.3% 9.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nongfa at 08/30/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 7.7% 4.7% 0.4% 0.4% 9.3% 3.0% 10.0% 2.9% 25.3% RIPA Consensus 4.4% 14.5% 7.6% 7.6% 5.2% 10.1% 3.7% 2.6% 1.3% 2.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 12.2% 6.6% 5.2% 3.6% 9.8% 3.5% 5.1% 1.8% 9.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.0% 7.5% 3.9% 3.9% 0.9% 2.5% 0.9% 0.1% -0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 4.7% 21.5% 11.3% 11.3% 9.6% 17.7% 6.6% 5.2% 2.6% 4.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------             Twenty at 08/29/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 1.1% 0.9% 2.0% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 5.6% 2.1% 1.9% 1.4% 4.1% 1.1% 1.2% 0.5% 2.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 4.1% 1.5% 1.3% 0.9% 3.0% 0.8% 1.2% 0.6% 2.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.6% 10.0% 3.8% 3.4% 2.9% 7.9% 2.2% 2.5% 1.0% 5.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty at 08/29/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.1% 2.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.2% 3.1% 0.7% 1.7% 2.0% 5.9% RIPA Consensus 2.4% 12.1% 5.7% 5.5% 3.9% 7.6% 2.7% 2.5% 1.1% 2.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.6% 8.9% 4.3% 3.9% 2.6% 6.1% 2.0% 2.2% 1.4% 3.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 5.8% 3.0% 2.9% 0.1% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.1% 18.5% 8.5% 8.0% 7.6% 13.4% 4.6% 4.7% 2.2% 5.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty at 08/29/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 2.9% 0.9% 3.2% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 7.4% 2.9% 2.5% 1.9% 6.8% 2.2% 2.8% 1.2% 3.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 5.1% 1.9% 1.6% 1.3% 4.6% 1.5% 2.8% 1.0% 3.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 2.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 1.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.5% 12.4% 4.8% 4.1% 3.9% 11.8% 3.6% 5.0% 2.2% 5.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty at 08/29/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 2.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 2.4% 1.6% 4.7% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 8.7% 3.4% 2.9% 2.2% 9.2% 3.2% 4.4% 1.9% 5.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 6.6% 2.3% 2.0% 1.5% 6.5% 2.2% 3.7% 1.8% 4.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 3.1% 1.2% 1.0% 0.0% 2.8% 1.3% 1.7% 0.3% 0.7% Logistic Regression 1.4% 14.3% 5.6% 4.8% 4.4% 15.7% 5.1% 7.1% 3.5% 9.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty at 08/28/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 1.9% 0.7% 3.6% 1.8% 5.3% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 11.2% 4.5% 3.7% 3.0% 11.3% 4.1% 7.9% 3.4% 7.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 8.2% 3.2% 2.6% 2.1% 8.2% 3.0% 6.4% 2.9% 6.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 4.6% 2.0% 1.2% 0.1% 4.0% 2.0% 5.4% 1.5% 1.8% Logistic Regression 1.8% 17.9% 7.1% 6.2% 6.0% 18.7% 6.3% 10.4% 5.4% 13.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty at 08/28/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 1.2% 0.8% 12.1% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 6.8% 2.4% 1.7% 1.5% 7.9% 2.5% 6.5% 2.5% 6.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 4.8% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 5.6% 1.7% 4.7% 1.9% 8.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 2.6% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 3.6% 1.7% 6.3% 1.7% 2.6% Logistic Regression 0.9% 11.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.0% 12.3% 3.3% 6.8% 3.2% 9.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty at 08/28/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 3.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 5.6% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 14.6% 5.8% 4.0% 4.0% 21.4% 8.8% 16.7% 8.9% 17.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 10.9% 4.1% 2.8% 2.9% 14.5% 5.9% 11.6% 6.0% 13.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 9.2% 4.9% 1.6% 1.5% 11.9% 6.2% 19.7% 7.5% 11.9% Logistic Regression 1.7% 20.1% 6.6% 6.5% 6.5% 30.8% 11.4% 13.8% 10.3% 23.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------