Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Twenty-Two at 09/09/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 5.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 3.0% 0.9% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2.2% 0.6% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 4.5% 1.5% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.5% 0.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                         Twenty-Two at 09/09/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                           Tapah at 09/09/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Tapah at 09/08/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Tapah at 09/08/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 13.9% 2.6% 2.1% 1.2% 5.6% 1.1% 2.6% 2.2% 15.0% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 5.5% 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 2.1% 0.4% 1.0% 0.8% 5.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Tapah at 09/08/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.8% 42.4% 23.6% 8.2% 15.3% 10.7% 1.7% 5.8% 3.7% 21.5% RIPA Consensus 4.7% 7.5% 4.9% 4.5% 2.7% 2.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.7% 19.1% 11.1% 5.7% 6.8% 5.3% 1.2% 2.3% 1.2% 7.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.5% 4.7% 3.4% 3.3% 0.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.8% 10.4% 6.4% 5.7% 4.9% 4.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Tapah at 09/08/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.3% 37.6% 25.8% 18.5% 15.2% 7.2% 1.5% 5.6% 0.6% 11.5% RIPA Consensus 38.4% 54.5% 53.8% 53.8% 39.8% 27.5% 15.2% 4.1% 1.9% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 30.0% 48.8% 44.5% 42.0% 31.6% 20.7% 10.6% 4.6% 1.5% 4.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 47.1% 48.9% 48.9% 48.9% 20.9% 21.0% 12.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 29.8% 60.1% 58.8% 58.8% 58.8% 33.9% 18.2% 6.6% 3.6% 2.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Tapah at 09/07/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.8% 47.4% 30.6% 21.3% 22.5% 17.9% 7.2% 7.4% 4.8% 9.7% RIPA Consensus 28.3% 48.9% 43.7% 43.7% 34.6% 25.3% 12.6% 4.9% 2.2% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 24.8% 48.4% 39.3% 36.2% 30.5% 22.8% 10.7% 5.7% 3.0% 3.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 34.1% 41.4% 35.6% 35.6% 18.0% 16.3% 7.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 22.5% 56.4% 51.8% 51.8% 51.2% 34.3% 17.7% 9.6% 4.2% 2.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Tapah at 09/07/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.2% 21.8% 6.5% 1.4% 2.7% 2.0% 0.2% 8.8% 3.2% 16.2% RIPA Consensus 5.8% 18.3% 11.4% 10.9% 8.1% 9.4% 3.4% 2.6% 0.9% 0.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.5% 19.4% 9.7% 7.7% 6.3% 6.9% 2.3% 4.7% 1.6% 6.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.0% 11.8% 8.2% 7.1% 1.5% 5.8% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 5.6% 24.7% 14.7% 14.7% 14.7% 13.1% 4.5% 4.9% 1.7% 1.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Tapah at 09/07/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 16.2% 5.6% 1.1% 0.5% 4.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 2.6% RIPA Consensus 2.9% 13.7% 7.2% 6.4% 5.1% 9.1% 3.2% 3.7% 1.1% 1.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 14.5% 6.6% 4.6% 3.5% 7.4% 2.2% 2.7% 0.9% 1.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.3% 7.6% 4.4% 3.1% 0.6% 5.7% 2.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.5% 19.8% 9.9% 9.7% 9.7% 12.6% 4.0% 5.9% 2.0% 2.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Tapah at 09/07/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 29.3% 17.4% 7.8% 1.4% 7.7% 1.2% 1.5% 3.0% 3.4% RIPA Consensus 11.3% 35.3% 23.7% 21.6% 18.5% 26.9% 13.7% 12.7% 6.1% 5.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.1% 33.3% 21.5% 17.0% 12.7% 20.5% 9.5% 9.0% 5.0% 4.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.5% 25.7% 16.7% 12.5% 6.3% 16.5% 8.9% 8.6% 2.5% 0.8% Logistic Regression 11.1% 44.9% 30.7% 30.7% 30.7% 37.3% 18.5% 16.9% 9.6% 10.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Tapah at 09/06/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.5% 23.2% 7.6% 5.1% 7.5% 9.1% 2.5% 3.2% 2.6% 22.3% RIPA Consensus 11.8% 46.0% 32.8% 28.9% 26.8% 39.6% 23.9% 24.3% 14.7% 13.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.0% 38.4% 24.4% 21.0% 20.4% 29.4% 16.8% 17.2% 10.6% 16.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.9% 34.1% 21.3% 13.5% 9.3% 25.9% 15.9% 18.7% 7.5% 3.4% Logistic Regression 12.7% 57.9% 44.4% 44.4% 44.4% 53.2% 32.0% 29.8% 21.9% 23.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Tapah at 09/06/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 20.7% 5.6% 0.7% 1.5% 4.3% 0.9% 4.9% 2.0% 21.1% RIPA Consensus 3.5% 31.5% 17.6% 15.2% 13.2% 32.5% 18.1% 25.8% 15.9% 22.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.0% 27.9% 13.6% 10.3% 9.2% 23.0% 12.4% 18.8% 11.2% 21.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.3% 19.0% 10.1% 5.3% 1.2% 17.5% 10.2% 24.8% 11.1% 12.1% Logistic Regression 4.7% 44.0% 25.1% 25.1% 25.1% 47.5% 26.1% 26.9% 20.8% 32.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twentytwo at 09/06/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.6% 28.6% 14.3% 2.9% 2.0% 14.0% 5.4% 8.5% 9.0% 35.6% RIPA Consensus 5.4% 41.4% 24.5% 21.3% 18.4% 48.0% 33.2% 35.3% 26.5% 29.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.1% 37.1% 21.1% 15.1% 12.9% 36.6% 23.9% 26.4% 20.6% 31.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.4% 28.5% 15.3% 8.9% 3.1% 28.5% 18.7% 32.2% 16.6% 12.4% Logistic Regression 6.4% 54.3% 33.7% 33.7% 33.7% 67.5% 47.7% 38.5% 36.4% 46.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------