Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Twenty-Three at 09/21/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 21.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% 3.9% 0.5% 8.6% 3.3% 3.5% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.8% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 12.2% 5.6% 9.0% 5.7% 9.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 10.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.9% 9.4% 3.9% 8.9% 4.8% 7.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 2.0% 1.7% 7.7% 2.6% 2.5% Logistic Regression 0.7% 9.1% 3.1% 2.4% 2.4% 22.5% 9.6% 10.4% 8.7% 17.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty-Three at 09/21/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 9.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 7.7% 3.1% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 8.0% 3.2% 2.3% 3.2% 6.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 5.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 5.8% 2.2% 4.0% 3.2% 4.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 3.4% 1.1% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.5% 5.8% 1.9% 1.4% 1.2% 15.5% 6.1% 1.1% 5.4% 11.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty-Three at 09/20/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 7.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.4% 1.3% 0.1% 7.6% 2.7% 3.5% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 6.7% 2.5% 3.4% 3.0% 8.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 4.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 4.9% 1.7% 4.7% 2.9% 6.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 5.0% 1.7% 1.8% Logistic Regression 0.5% 5.0% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 13.1% 4.6% 1.7% 4.3% 14.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty-Three at 09/20/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 4.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 6.0% 1.8% 2.6% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 4.1% 1.3% 3.1% 1.7% 5.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 2.9% 0.9% 4.0% 1.7% 4.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.8% 0.8% 2.2% Logistic Regression 0.4% 3.7% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 7.8% 2.4% 3.4% 2.5% 7.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twenty-Three at 09/20/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 16.0% 2.3% 1.7% 1.0% 4.0% 0.4% 7.9% 5.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 3.7% 1.4% 3.7% 1.9% 1.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 6.7% 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 3.7% 1.0% 5.1% 2.9% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 5.4% 2.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 3.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 7.1% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mitag at 09/20/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 2.1% 0.5% 8.6% 3.8% 9.5% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 2.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 4.8% 1.7% 5.3% 2.6% 11.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 3.9% 1.3% 6.3% 3.0% 11.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 4.9% 1.6% 6.5% Logistic Regression 0.6% 4.8% 1.7% 1.3% 1.2% 9.2% 3.0% 5.7% 3.7% 17.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mitag at 09/19/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 9.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 4.7% 0.5% 2.8% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 2.1% 0.7% 6.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 4.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 1.4% 0.4% 2.9% 0.6% 5.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 3.3% Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.7% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 3.4% 0.9% 3.0% 1.3% 9.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mitag at 09/19/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 5.0% 1.2% 0.8% 1.8% 2.4% 0.4% 13.3% 6.5% 10.4% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.2% 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 3.8% 1.3% 4.9% 1.9% 8.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.8% 1.2% 0.8% 1.1% 3.3% 1.0% 7.7% 3.4% 8.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% 5.2% 1.6% 6.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 5.9% 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 6.8% 2.1% 4.7% 2.3% 10.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                       Mitag at 09/19/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.1% 22.7% 7.1% 1.7% 5.8% 3.9% 1.1% 23.6% 14.7% 27.4% RIPA Consensus 3.6% 20.6% 13.0% 12.6% 9.5% 20.7% 11.6% 12.4% 6.9% 10.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.1% 21.3% 11.0% 8.9% 8.2% 15.1% 8.1% 16.1% 9.5% 16.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.7% 9.5% 4.8% 4.4% 0.3% 6.8% 4.1% 7.3% 2.6% 1.7% Logistic Regression 5.6% 31.8% 21.2% 20.7% 18.6% 34.6% 19.1% 17.5% 11.2% 20.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                             Mitag at 09/18/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 25.3% 23.5% 6.5% 5.6% 11.4% 4.6% 6.4% 5.1% 40.4% RIPA Consensus 15.2% 49.8% 39.4% 38.2% 32.2% 49.7% 40.1% 33.5% 24.9% 21.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.6% 41.6% 34.1% 27.6% 23.3% 36.9% 28.2% 24.4% 18.3% 27.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.3% 34.0% 21.8% 19.4% 7.3% 28.5% 22.0% 22.6% 10.9% 4.5% Logistic Regression 19.1% 65.7% 57.0% 57.0% 57.0% 71.0% 58.2% 44.4% 38.9% 38.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Mitag at 09/18/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.1% 22.1% 7.9% 5.0% 1.3% 9.7% 2.7% 11.0% 6.9% 6.5% RIPA Consensus 7.1% 33.9% 22.9% 20.8% 18.6% 41.4% 30.7% 30.7% 20.5% 23.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.0% 29.9% 17.9% 15.5% 12.8% 30.8% 21.3% 24.1% 16.0% 17.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.1% 18.5% 11.3% 7.1% 2.7% 21.7% 16.4% 21.7% 10.3% 7.6% Logistic Regression 10.1% 49.2% 34.5% 34.5% 34.5% 61.2% 45.0% 39.6% 30.8% 39.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twentythre at 09/18/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 11.8% 2.4% 0.6% 2.1% 7.3% 2.1% 8.2% 3.5% 5.1% RIPA Consensus 4.2% 24.6% 14.3% 13.1% 11.0% 34.0% 22.9% 28.0% 19.1% 20.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.7% 20.3% 10.3% 8.9% 8.0% 25.0% 16.0% 21.3% 13.9% 15.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.2% 11.8% 7.3% 4.9% 0.7% 15.5% 12.2% 24.1% 12.2% 6.7% Logistic Regression 6.1% 37.4% 21.3% 21.3% 21.3% 52.4% 33.7% 31.9% 26.1% 33.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twentythre at 09/18/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 13.3% 3.2% 0.9% 2.2% 6.3% 2.8% 14.4% 6.4% 24.5% RIPA Consensus 6.0% 34.1% 22.0% 20.1% 17.0% 42.2% 31.9% 38.1% 29.2% 26.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.8% 27.1% 15.7% 13.6% 12.1% 30.2% 22.2% 30.2% 21.5% 26.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.9% 17.6% 10.3% 7.3% 1.3% 19.9% 16.0% 32.9% 18.9% 10.0% Logistic Regression 9.0% 50.6% 33.8% 32.9% 32.8% 64.6% 47.9% 43.4% 39.5% 43.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twentythre at 09/17/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 12.9% 1.9% 0.7% 2.5% 8.0% 1.8% 10.4% 5.9% 11.1% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 18.5% 9.2% 7.2% 6.3% 26.9% 15.1% 30.0% 18.8% 33.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 16.5% 6.7% 5.0% 5.0% 20.6% 10.6% 23.4% 14.5% 25.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 6.7% 2.8% 1.0% 0.2% 10.5% 6.9% 27.6% 14.9% 22.8% Logistic Regression 2.4% 30.2% 15.6% 13.3% 12.4% 43.4% 23.3% 32.4% 22.7% 43.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twentythre at 09/17/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 3.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 1.6% 0.4% 5.1% 1.0% 20.7% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 10.8% 4.5% 3.2% 3.0% 18.1% 8.7% 26.9% 15.2% 33.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 8.3% 3.2% 2.2% 2.1% 12.6% 5.9% 19.6% 10.5% 29.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 3.8% 1.6% 0.5% 0.0% 8.2% 5.3% 29.9% 16.1% 29.6% Logistic Regression 1.4% 17.8% 7.5% 5.9% 5.9% 28.0% 12.1% 24.0% 14.4% 37.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twentythre at 09/17/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.2% 31.6% 11.9% 3.1% 7.0% 9.0% 4.2% 15.2% 11.9% 11.7% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 10.8% 5.1% 3.8% 3.1% 14.3% 6.2% 23.8% 10.6% 33.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 17.7% 7.3% 3.5% 4.3% 12.5% 5.5% 20.9% 11.0% 25.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 3.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 6.1% 3.2% 23.9% 11.3% 33.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 18.2% 9.3% 7.3% 6.2% 22.4% 9.1% 23.7% 9.9% 33.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twentythre at 09/17/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.0% 43.6% 32.7% 10.6% 7.6% 19.8% 7.8% 23.1% 15.5% 32.2% RIPA Consensus 3.2% 32.5% 19.2% 15.7% 12.9% 41.3% 29.6% 49.0% 34.1% 55.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.1% 36.2% 23.7% 14.0% 11.1% 34.1% 22.3% 40.4% 27.9% 47.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.6% 19.1% 9.5% 4.5% 0.7% 22.3% 17.0% 45.1% 25.2% 42.8% Logistic Regression 4.9% 46.0% 28.9% 26.9% 25.1% 60.3% 42.1% 53.0% 43.0% 68.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Twentythre at 09/16/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.7% 49.4% 22.1% 10.8% 31.9% 29.4% 9.8% 36.0% 13.7% 41.6% RIPA Consensus 29.8% 68.5% 57.8% 54.4% 44.6% 67.3% 57.0% 57.7% 43.7% 54.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 27.4% 62.1% 45.8% 39.8% 40.3% 54.6% 41.2% 50.4% 33.7% 50.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 28.9% 60.5% 46.4% 39.7% 21.2% 51.6% 39.5% 48.0% 25.2% 35.1% Logistic Regression 30.7% 76.5% 69.1% 69.1% 68.0% 83.0% 74.5% 67.3% 62.3% 74.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twentythre at 09/16/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.0% 28.9% 6.0% 13.0% 6.9% 25.4% 8.4% 28.0% 20.0% 51.3% RIPA Consensus 7.8% 44.4% 27.8% 24.2% 18.7% 52.3% 41.5% 50.4% 39.2% 59.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.5% 39.2% 20.5% 20.4% 14.7% 43.3% 30.4% 42.9% 32.7% 56.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.0% 32.2% 18.1% 11.6% 3.0% 32.0% 25.3% 47.4% 25.1% 42.7% Logistic Regression 9.6% 56.6% 37.4% 36.8% 34.3% 72.7% 57.7% 53.3% 53.2% 76.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twentythre at 09/16/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.9% 20.8% 3.6% 5.3% 2.0% 7.8% 1.9% 41.0% 8.0% 16.4% RIPA Consensus 4.7% 41.9% 24.8% 20.8% 16.1% 49.0% 38.0% 53.1% 41.3% 70.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.4% 34.8% 17.7% 15.6% 11.4% 35.3% 25.9% 49.1% 30.2% 52.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.3% 28.0% 14.2% 7.9% 1.0% 27.0% 21.8% 49.6% 26.6% 59.4% Logistic Regression 7.2% 55.8% 35.4% 33.7% 31.2% 71.1% 54.2% 56.7% 56.1% 81.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------