Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Ragasa at 09/24/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.9% 5.1% 2.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 6.4% 6.2% 4.9% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.2% 5.8% 4.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.4% 5.1% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.4% 7.3% 5.9% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/23/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.2% 6.2% 7.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 3.9% 4.8% 3.5% 3.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.6% 5.2% 4.6% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.8% 3.7% 2.3% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.0% 5.9% 4.6% 4.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/23/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.1% 10.2% 6.6% 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 3.0% 2.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.2% 5.3% 3.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.5% 1.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 4.1% 3.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/23/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.7% 5.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.3% 2.7% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.0% 3.5% 1.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.0% 2.2% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 3.2% 2.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/23/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.4% 3.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 3.5% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.2% 3.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.3% 3.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.9% 3.9% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/22/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.1% 5.2% 2.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 2.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 2.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/22/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 2.0% 2.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/22/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 4.8% 5.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 1.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/22/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 6.2% 4.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 2.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/21/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.8% 11.3% 3.8% 1.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.6% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/21/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 145 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 28.5% 25.8% 29.9% 2.9% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.5% 8.6% 9.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/21/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 34.4% 24.4% 13.3% 0.4% 4.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 32.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 33.1% 8.1% 4.4% 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 65.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/21/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 42.3% 61.5% 56.9% 36.3% 16.2% 5.9% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 56.2% 55.0% 53.0% 51.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 51.6% 57.1% 54.3% 46.7% 5.3% 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 72.3% 59.2% 57.0% 55.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 40.2% 50.8% 49.0% 48.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/20/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 56.4% 56.2% 51.3% 27.6% 35.7% 23.0% 6.3% 3.0% 0.7% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 47.6% 50.2% 47.0% 43.4% 34.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 50.5% 52.2% 48.4% 38.1% 34.6% 7.6% 2.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 67.6% 55.7% 54.1% 47.3% 34.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 27.5% 44.7% 40.0% 39.5% 33.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/20/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 54.8% 66.5% 65.7% 27.5% 38.3% 17.0% 5.3% 6.8% 2.3% 1.2% RIPA Consensus 62.2% 75.8% 75.8% 73.2% 63.3% 80.7% 53.4% 32.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 59.6% 72.7% 72.4% 57.9% 54.9% 59.4% 37.3% 23.7% 0.7% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 77.3% 78.8% 78.8% 73.6% 56.9% 97.0% 56.6% 41.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 47.0% 72.8% 72.8% 72.8% 69.7% 64.4% 50.2% 22.5% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/20/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 51.2% 64.0% 65.2% 52.9% 28.4% 45.4% 20.6% 45.8% 12.1% 17.0% RIPA Consensus 75.4% 97.8% 97.5% 95.4% 92.5% 94.2% 90.1% 87.4% 74.7% 64.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 67.3% 86.5% 86.7% 81.2% 71.1% 77.8% 66.9% 73.5% 53.8% 48.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 77.5% 98.8% 98.2% 94.1% 88.2% 97.1% 94.2% 87.6% 76.6% 62.6% Logistic Regression 73.4% 96.8% 96.8% 96.8% 96.8% 91.2% 85.9% 87.2% 72.8% 65.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/20/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 42.9% 66.3% 55.6% 41.1% 45.6% 52.9% 31.4% 51.9% 15.0% 34.5% RIPA Consensus 71.0% 91.0% 91.0% 90.3% 74.3% 87.4% 82.3% 71.0% 57.7% 60.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 61.6% 82.8% 79.2% 73.9% 64.7% 75.8% 65.3% 64.6% 43.5% 51.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 78.3% 92.3% 92.3% 90.9% 58.9% 89.1% 87.1% 64.1% 50.5% 57.7% Logistic Regression 63.7% 89.8% 89.8% 89.8% 89.8% 85.7% 77.5% 78.0% 65.0% 63.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/19/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.1% 50.5% 48.0% 31.1% 11.4% 42.3% 31.5% 38.6% 22.5% 43.8% RIPA Consensus 54.9% 88.4% 84.5% 83.3% 62.0% 83.6% 73.7% 61.3% 49.4% 63.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 44.6% 75.7% 72.3% 65.8% 45.1% 69.8% 59.6% 53.6% 40.4% 56.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 55.3% 86.0% 78.5% 76.1% 34.4% 79.4% 66.9% 42.5% 29.0% 54.7% Logistic Regression 54.6% 90.8% 90.5% 90.5% 89.5% 87.8% 80.5% 80.0% 69.8% 72.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/19/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.8% 45.5% 36.3% 20.4% 10.7% 35.4% 23.4% 41.7% 21.9% 37.2% RIPA Consensus 25.2% 79.3% 69.7% 63.7% 48.9% 76.7% 65.1% 71.1% 61.1% 70.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 21.4% 68.0% 58.5% 49.2% 36.1% 62.9% 51.1% 61.2% 48.0% 59.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 22.3% 74.0% 59.9% 48.0% 19.9% 67.4% 53.0% 65.6% 51.3% 62.6% Logistic Regression 28.2% 84.6% 79.4% 79.4% 78.0% 85.9% 77.1% 76.5% 70.9% 78.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ragasa at 09/19/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.9% 31.3% 23.8% 13.6% 5.3% 29.0% 12.0% 35.6% 20.0% 45.3% RIPA Consensus 12.5% 68.3% 52.0% 44.9% 35.4% 68.9% 54.7% 64.5% 53.3% 70.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.2% 56.0% 42.6% 34.4% 25.3% 55.5% 40.4% 54.9% 42.2% 62.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.1% 60.1% 38.5% 24.2% 8.6% 56.2% 40.3% 59.0% 44.4% 62.6% Logistic Regression 14.9% 76.6% 65.6% 65.6% 62.3% 81.5% 69.1% 70.1% 62.2% 78.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                             Ragasa at 09/18/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.2% 16.5% 9.7% 7.2% 4.6% 26.0% 8.3% 34.2% 24.3% 55.9% RIPA Consensus 12.8% 58.7% 41.1% 34.0% 29.0% 63.9% 51.6% 54.2% 48.7% 72.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.9% 44.6% 30.6% 25.0% 20.8% 51.2% 37.1% 47.5% 40.6% 66.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.4% 49.5% 32.0% 18.3% 9.4% 48.8% 38.2% 44.1% 34.8% 62.6% Logistic Regression 14.2% 67.9% 50.2% 49.7% 48.5% 78.9% 64.9% 64.3% 62.7% 81.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twentyfour at 09/18/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 9.4% 2.3% 1.7% 0.9% 11.1% 6.1% 27.6% 14.9% 54.6% RIPA Consensus 8.2% 51.6% 31.9% 26.4% 20.9% 63.0% 51.2% 39.5% 49.3% 74.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.0% 37.5% 22.0% 18.1% 14.2% 45.6% 36.1% 35.5% 37.8% 67.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.4% 41.9% 23.6% 13.7% 5.1% 45.8% 35.9% 44.0% 34.9% 62.6% Logistic Regression 9.0% 61.3% 40.2% 39.1% 36.8% 80.1% 66.5% 34.9% 63.7% 85.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------