|
| Neoguri at 09/29/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/29/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/29/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.0% |
1.3% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.4% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/28/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/28/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.9% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/28/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
3.0% |
1.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.3% |
1.4% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
1.0% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/28/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
7.5% |
1.7% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
2.5% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/27/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
10.1% |
2.1% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
7.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
8.2% |
0.7% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
12.7% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
1.9% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/27/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
10.3% |
12.9% |
11.9% |
7.2% |
1.7% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
8.9% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
2.0% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
4.8% |
4.5% |
4.1% |
2.4% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
2.9% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
3.0% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
1.1% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/27/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
8.0% |
10.3% |
4.5% |
3.9% |
1.7% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
7.5% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
2.0% |
0.8% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
3.9% |
3.9% |
1.7% |
1.4% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
2.5% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
2.6% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
1.3% |
1.1% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/27/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
6.1% |
13.5% |
8.0% |
2.0% |
1.6% |
0.9% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
4.8% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
2.4% |
1.4% |
0.8% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
3.6% |
5.4% |
3.1% |
1.0% |
0.9% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
1.5% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
3.4% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
1.5% |
2.2% |
1.0% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/26/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
1.5% |
7.1% |
2.1% |
1.0% |
1.1% |
0.8% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.5% |
1.2% |
0.6% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.7% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.7% |
3.1% |
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.7% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.3% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.6% |
1.9% |
0.9% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
1.2% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/26/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
2.7% |
7.8% |
6.3% |
1.7% |
0.7% |
2.2% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.7% |
1.5% |
0.7% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
1.0% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
1.3% |
3.6% |
2.5% |
0.9% |
0.5% |
1.3% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.8% |
2.5% |
1.2% |
0.9% |
0.8% |
1.6% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/26/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
1.5% |
2.1% |
1.7% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.5% |
1.4% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.7% |
0.2% |
1.7% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.7% |
1.6% |
0.9% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
1.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
3.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.5% |
2.3% |
1.0% |
0.8% |
0.6% |
1.2% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/26/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
1.6% |
5.1% |
2.0% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
1.3% |
1.6% |
0.9% |
0.8% |
0.7% |
1.2% |
0.4% |
4.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
1.4% |
2.7% |
1.2% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.9% |
0.3% |
3.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
1.7% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
8.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
1.0% |
2.6% |
1.2% |
0.9% |
0.9% |
1.7% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/24/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.3% |
1.1% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.4% |
0.9% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.2% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.7% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.4% |
1.7% |
0.9% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.8% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/23/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
3.6% |
4.7% |
1.8% |
1.1% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.8% |
0.1% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.5% |
1.3% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
1.5% |
2.4% |
1.0% |
0.7% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.3% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.6% |
2.2% |
1.2% |
0.9% |
0.7% |
0.9% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/23/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
3.5% |
2.6% |
0.8% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
1.2% |
0.9% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
1.9% |
1.5% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
1.6% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.8% |
1.4% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/23/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.7% |
2.0% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.5% |
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.6% |
1.3% |
0.4% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.5% |
1.5% |
0.8% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/23/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
1.4% |
2.9% |
2.1% |
1.0% |
0.7% |
0.8% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.8% |
1.4% |
0.9% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.9% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.4% |
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/22/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.8% |
1.8% |
1.7% |
1.4% |
0.5% |
1.4% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.3% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/22/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.5% |
1.2% |
0.9% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.1% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/22/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.9% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/22/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
6.0% |
1.3% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
2.1% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/21/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
4.2% |
1.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
1.5% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/21/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
7.1% |
4.6% |
1.8% |
0.3% |
0.9% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
1.0% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
3.0% |
1.7% |
0.6% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
1.4% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.7% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/21/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
8.3% |
6.8% |
3.0% |
1.7% |
1.3% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
5.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
6.3% |
2.2% |
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
7.8% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
3.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/21/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
15.8% |
11.0% |
5.9% |
0.8% |
0.7% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
30.1% |
15.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
25.3% |
13.8% |
1.9% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
42.9% |
16.8% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
17.4% |
13.7% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/20/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
20.3% |
12.6% |
3.9% |
0.9% |
1.2% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/20/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
23.6% |
6.5% |
4.9% |
0.4% |
8.2% |
1.5% |
2.2% |
1.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
18.4% |
32.8% |
31.7% |
31.7% |
24.0% |
23.0% |
7.4% |
6.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
20.1% |
24.0% |
22.7% |
21.2% |
18.7% |
15.8% |
5.6% |
4.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
21.1% |
26.9% |
24.8% |
24.8% |
11.7% |
28.6% |
7.3% |
8.8% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
15.7% |
38.7% |
38.6% |
38.6% |
36.3% |
17.4% |
7.4% |
3.9% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/20/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
27.8% |
29.1% |
26.9% |
12.6% |
14.3% |
6.4% |
5.3% |
2.1% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
58.5% |
65.7% |
65.7% |
65.7% |
51.3% |
43.8% |
24.1% |
12.8% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
48.2% |
53.5% |
52.8% |
48.0% |
39.0% |
31.3% |
17.8% |
9.2% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
68.7% |
64.5% |
64.5% |
64.5% |
36.2% |
44.4% |
20.7% |
15.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
48.2% |
67.0% |
67.0% |
67.0% |
66.5% |
43.2% |
27.5% |
10.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/20/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
32.7% |
23.2% |
16.0% |
22.9% |
11.3% |
17.5% |
16.1% |
7.5% |
0.9% |
1.3% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
33.7% |
49.1% |
49.1% |
49.1% |
38.4% |
29.5% |
16.3% |
14.8% |
4.8% |
1.2% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
33.3% |
40.5% |
38.1% |
40.4% |
29.3% |
25.5% |
16.2% |
12.3% |
3.5% |
1.2% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
37.8% |
41.1% |
41.1% |
41.1% |
19.6% |
24.4% |
13.5% |
12.0% |
3.5% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
29.6% |
57.2% |
57.2% |
57.2% |
57.2% |
34.6% |
19.1% |
17.5% |
6.1% |
2.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/19/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
21.2% |
34.7% |
34.8% |
22.3% |
25.8% |
14.2% |
15.3% |
13.6% |
3.1% |
2.7% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
22.9% |
36.9% |
34.9% |
34.9% |
24.1% |
19.6% |
9.5% |
8.7% |
2.7% |
1.7% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
22.3% |
36.1% |
34.8% |
30.7% |
24.6% |
17.8% |
11.4% |
10.3% |
2.7% |
2.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
25.2% |
30.4% |
30.4% |
30.4% |
8.8% |
14.7% |
7.4% |
4.9% |
1.0% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
20.5% |
43.3% |
39.4% |
39.4% |
39.4% |
24.5% |
11.5% |
12.5% |
4.3% |
3.1% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/19/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
26.4% |
54.9% |
46.6% |
25.5% |
19.9% |
33.0% |
27.8% |
16.2% |
15.9% |
6.1% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
36.4% |
56.9% |
56.9% |
56.9% |
42.7% |
33.9% |
21.6% |
18.7% |
8.2% |
4.7% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
33.0% |
56.2% |
53.4% |
46.4% |
35.1% |
33.6% |
23.7% |
17.8% |
10.7% |
5.1% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
41.0% |
48.9% |
48.9% |
48.9% |
20.5% |
25.1% |
16.8% |
16.2% |
5.5% |
2.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
31.7% |
64.9% |
64.9% |
64.9% |
64.9% |
42.8% |
26.5% |
21.2% |
10.9% |
7.1% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/19/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
19.8% |
36.8% |
27.7% |
30.5% |
16.4% |
26.8% |
27.7% |
21.5% |
10.3% |
4.6% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
17.0% |
43.3% |
34.7% |
34.5% |
27.5% |
28.8% |
17.2% |
16.8% |
7.8% |
9.9% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
17.9% |
41.1% |
32.3% |
33.1% |
23.7% |
28.1% |
20.7% |
18.3% |
8.6% |
8.1% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
13.9% |
31.0% |
21.6% |
21.2% |
7.2% |
14.8% |
8.9% |
12.4% |
3.9% |
5.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
20.1% |
55.6% |
47.8% |
47.8% |
47.8% |
42.9% |
25.5% |
21.2% |
11.6% |
14.4% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Neoguri at 09/18/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
12.3% |
23.7% |
17.3% |
6.3% |
4.3% |
20.6% |
10.6% |
21.3% |
7.3% |
8.5% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
15.0% |
56.3% |
43.7% |
43.2% |
33.4% |
51.0% |
43.3% |
38.8% |
29.6% |
34.3% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
14.1% |
45.4% |
34.8% |
30.9% |
23.6% |
40.8% |
32.3% |
33.0% |
22.1% |
25.7% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
9.5% |
40.2% |
21.9% |
21.0% |
4.9% |
24.0% |
17.9% |
28.7% |
13.5% |
16.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
20.5% |
72.3% |
65.4% |
65.4% |
61.8% |
78.0% |
68.6% |
49.0% |
45.7% |
52.7% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Twentyfive at 09/18/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
5.2% |
15.0% |
13.8% |
6.5% |
1.4% |
19.0% |
6.0% |
24.5% |
3.6% |
5.2% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
5.2% |
35.7% |
23.1% |
20.2% |
18.7% |
39.3% |
28.8% |
35.6% |
24.4% |
30.2% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
5.2% |
28.8% |
20.0% |
15.6% |
12.9% |
32.5% |
21.2% |
31.8% |
17.4% |
21.8% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
2.6% |
19.3% |
10.5% |
4.7% |
3.0% |
17.0% |
12.6% |
33.9% |
17.3% |
20.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
7.8% |
52.1% |
35.8% |
35.7% |
34.5% |
61.7% |
45.1% |
37.3% |
31.5% |
40.3% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|