Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Twentyseve intensity image current Twentyseve RI diff image

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Matmo at 10/06/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Matmo at 10/06/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 15.3% 5.2% 3.2% 0.5% 8.3% 1.8% 9.3% 5.1% 12.2% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 6.1% 2.2% 1.3% 0.3% 3.3% 0.7% 3.6% 1.7% 4.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.6% 1.2% 0.9% 0.7% 1.5% 0.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.9%
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Matmo at 10/06/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 3.5% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 1.4% 0.1% 5.4% 0.6% 7.4% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 2.2% 0.2% 2.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 3.0% 1.6% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.6%
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Matmo at 10/05/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 10.7% 3.7% 2.8% 0.6% 4.3% 0.5% 4.6% 4.1% 15.9% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Matmo at 10/05/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.4% 19.3% 5.8% 4.0% 3.7% 2.9% 0.4% 8.1% 0.9% 5.1% RIPA Consensus 3.4% 5.6% 4.0% 3.4% 2.6% 2.5% 0.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.0% 10.1% 4.6% 3.6% 2.9% 2.6% 0.4% 3.3% 0.3% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.1% 4.0% 3.4% 2.5% 1.1% 3.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 2.6% 7.2% 4.6% 4.3% 4.1% 1.8% 0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
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Matmo at 10/05/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.9% 4.4% 1.9% 0.8% 0.6% 2.5% 0.4% 2.9% 0.4% 4.5% RIPA Consensus 16.2% 29.2% 28.5% 28.5% 16.2% 21.2% 6.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.7% 20.9% 19.6% 19.3% 11.0% 14.9% 4.1% 3.0% 0.1% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 20.8% 27.1% 27.1% 27.1% 7.0% 25.5% 4.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 11.5% 31.3% 30.0% 30.0% 25.5% 16.8% 7.4% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0%
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Matmo at 10/05/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.2% 4.3% 3.8% 1.4% 0.7% 2.6% 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 32.4% 36.8% 35.6% 35.6% 23.6% 31.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 23.7% 25.9% 25.0% 24.2% 16.0% 21.5% 7.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 49.0% 38.6% 38.6% 38.6% 17.7% 37.6% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 15.9% 34.9% 32.6% 32.6% 29.6% 24.4% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Matmo at 10/04/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.8% 9.0% 5.4% 2.9% 1.5% 2.6% 0.5% 7.1% 3.5% 4.0% RIPA Consensus 43.5% 53.6% 53.6% 53.6% 36.1% 32.5% 15.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 31.3% 38.7% 37.5% 36.6% 24.5% 22.5% 10.2% 9.1% 1.1% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 58.9% 55.6% 55.6% 55.6% 21.2% 33.9% 14.2% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 28.2% 51.6% 51.6% 51.6% 51.0% 31.0% 16.1% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Matmo at 10/04/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.1% 25.7% 12.0% 4.6% 1.2% 5.7% 1.1% 12.4% 1.3% 4.3% RIPA Consensus 47.0% 63.1% 63.1% 63.1% 45.6% 36.6% 21.2% 16.3% 6.8% 3.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 35.0% 50.6% 46.0% 43.6% 30.7% 26.3% 14.5% 14.9% 4.9% 3.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 57.8% 60.2% 60.2% 60.2% 25.1% 30.0% 16.5% 9.9% 2.9% 0.4%
Logistic Regression 36.3% 66.0% 66.0% 66.0% 66.0% 43.2% 25.9% 22.6% 10.6% 7.2%
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Matmo at 10/04/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.6% 23.7% 20.5% 17.3% 5.8% 17.6% 5.9% 2.4% 3.2% 7.8% RIPA Consensus 13.3% 29.3% 21.2% 21.2% 15.5% 13.6% 4.8% 5.5% 1.4% 1.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.0% 27.4% 21.0% 19.9% 12.2% 14.9% 5.2% 4.4% 1.9% 3.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.5% 22.3% 14.4% 14.4% 4.9% 10.1% 3.5% 2.6% 0.3% 0.4%
Logistic Regression 13.1% 36.4% 28.1% 28.1% 26.1% 17.2% 6.2% 8.4% 2.4% 3.0%
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Matmo at 10/03/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 1.3% 0.7% 1.7% 0.4% 13.3% RIPA Consensus 6.0% 22.3% 14.9% 13.0% 11.1% 8.8% 2.7% 4.7% 0.9% 2.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.6% 15.2% 9.9% 8.8% 7.5% 6.3% 2.0% 3.6% 0.6% 6.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.4% 15.5% 9.8% 6.0% 2.6% 8.3% 2.6% 2.1% 0.3% 1.9%
Logistic Regression 6.6% 29.1% 19.9% 19.9% 19.6% 9.4% 2.7% 7.2% 1.4% 3.5%
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Matmo at 10/03/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.6% 23.1% 16.4% 6.2% 6.6% 6.7% 2.0% 5.8% 1.6% 21.9% RIPA Consensus 6.0% 26.9% 19.3% 17.3% 14.2% 12.0% 4.1% 7.0% 1.5% 4.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.1% 25.6% 18.3% 13.6% 11.6% 10.2% 3.4% 6.5% 1.5% 10.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.3% 19.2% 13.0% 8.9% 2.7% 11.7% 4.4% 5.2% 1.2% 3.9%
Logistic Regression 6.6% 34.7% 25.7% 25.7% 25.7% 12.2% 3.9% 8.7% 1.8% 4.6%
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Matmo at 10/03/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.8% 55.9% 44.5% 32.8% 15.7% 25.7% 13.8% 11.7% 6.1% 37.6% RIPA Consensus 43.8% 75.1% 71.7% 71.7% 53.9% 51.1% 34.3% 27.1% 11.6% 10.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 34.8% 68.7% 62.6% 58.7% 41.1% 42.6% 27.4% 22.0% 9.7% 19.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 45.4% 69.5% 62.7% 62.7% 27.2% 41.7% 26.1% 19.4% 7.2% 4.4%
Logistic Regression 42.2% 80.7% 80.7% 80.7% 80.6% 60.5% 42.4% 34.9% 16.0% 16.1%
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Matmo at 10/03/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 31.9% 64.3% 57.3% 45.2% 36.3% 38.8% 24.5% 13.7% 14.8% 6.5% RIPA Consensus 61.3% 81.9% 81.1% 81.1% 68.0% 68.4% 51.5% 40.5% 22.3% 14.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 51.5% 76.0% 73.2% 69.1% 57.4% 58.5% 42.5% 31.5% 19.8% 11.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 68.6% 78.0% 76.4% 76.4% 50.1% 62.0% 41.4% 32.7% 15.9% 6.0%
Logistic Regression 54.1% 85.9% 85.9% 85.9% 85.9% 74.8% 61.6% 48.3% 28.7% 22.7%
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Twentyseve at 10/02/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.9% 34.5% 17.7% 8.3% 18.7% 27.2% 16.9% 40.9% 27.9% 32.3% RIPA Consensus 22.8% 63.3% 50.5% 43.7% 38.5% 56.4% 41.9% 49.0% 31.1% 41.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 19.1% 53.7% 39.5% 31.8% 31.8% 46.6% 33.6% 46.2% 30.0% 38.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 19.7% 55.2% 40.5% 26.8% 16.4% 43.6% 31.7% 49.5% 25.8% 38.3%
Logistic Regression 25.9% 71.4% 60.5% 60.5% 60.5% 69.2% 52.2% 48.4% 36.4% 43.8%
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Twentyseve at 10/02/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.9% 57.8% 46.8% 24.1% 17.2% 31.7% 28.4% 45.5% 32.9% 34.2% RIPA Consensus 39.0% 79.4% 73.4% 65.9% 58.7% 72.9% 63.5% 54.7% 43.9% 56.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 30.3% 72.2% 64.5% 51.9% 44.8% 59.1% 51.8% 51.6% 40.2% 49.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 38.3% 73.6% 65.5% 50.6% 36.1% 60.4% 49.3% 41.9% 25.0% 50.0%
Logistic Regression 39.7% 85.3% 81.2% 81.2% 81.2% 85.5% 77.8% 67.6% 62.8% 63.3%
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Twentyseve at 10/01/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 26.6% 57.4% 39.6% 24.7% 19.2% 48.8% 31.5% 43.2% 43.4% 41.0% RIPA Consensus 20.4% 73.9% 60.5% 49.9% 46.6% 69.6% 60.8% 56.7% 49.5% 69.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 22.4% 68.3% 53.5% 41.4% 37.4% 62.6% 51.0% 52.1% 47.4% 59.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.0% 65.0% 45.9% 24.7% 20.3% 51.9% 41.0% 42.6% 29.4% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 26.8% 82.8% 75.0% 75.0% 72.9% 87.4% 80.6% 70.7% 69.6% 76.1%
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Twentyseve at 10/01/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.1% 38.1% 26.5% 8.9% 7.5% 25.4% 15.3% 34.1% 33.4% 52.3% RIPA Consensus 8.7% 58.7% 39.3% 32.2% 27.2% 66.0% 57.3% 64.5% 64.9% 72.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.2% 51.8% 35.0% 24.4% 20.6% 52.5% 43.2% 54.3% 54.3% 65.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.4% 45.7% 23.7% 11.3% 3.8% 46.4% 37.3% 70.1% 58.8% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 13.1% 71.6% 54.8% 53.1% 50.6% 85.7% 77.3% 58.8% 70.9% 82.2%
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Twentyseve at 10/01/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.9% 55.8% 42.0% 17.7% 9.9% 34.0% 20.7% 45.8% 41.5% 58.1% RIPA Consensus 14.9% 69.9% 53.1% 48.8% 36.1% 74.0% 69.9% 85.6% 86.0% 76.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.9% 65.2% 49.4% 38.4% 27.3% 60.6% 53.5% 72.3% 71.1% 70.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.1% 56.6% 31.6% 22.9% 2.6% 54.3% 48.5% 87.6% 83.6% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 23.8% 83.3% 74.7% 74.7% 69.6% 93.6% 91.3% 83.6% 88.4% 91.0%
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