|
| Matmo at 10/06/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.1% |
2.3% |
0.9% |
0.8% |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
1.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.9% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
3.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Matmo at 10/06/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.5% |
15.3% |
5.2% |
3.2% |
0.5% |
8.3% |
1.8% |
9.3% |
5.1% |
12.2% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.2% |
1.5% |
0.7% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
0.2% |
0.8% |
0.2% |
0.6% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.2% |
6.1% |
2.2% |
1.3% |
0.3% |
3.3% |
0.7% |
3.6% |
1.7% |
4.4% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.3% |
2.6% |
1.2% |
0.9% |
0.7% |
1.5% |
0.3% |
1.4% |
0.2% |
0.9% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Matmo at 10/06/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.2% |
3.5% |
0.8% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
1.4% |
0.1% |
5.4% |
0.6% |
7.4% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.2% |
1.8% |
0.9% |
0.7% |
0.5% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
0.7% |
0.1% |
0.6% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.2% |
2.3% |
0.8% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.8% |
0.1% |
2.2% |
0.2% |
2.8% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.5% |
3.0% |
1.6% |
1.3% |
1.1% |
0.9% |
0.2% |
1.1% |
0.1% |
0.6% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Matmo at 10/05/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.3% |
10.7% |
3.7% |
2.8% |
0.6% |
4.3% |
0.5% |
4.6% |
4.1% |
15.9% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Matmo at 10/05/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
8.4% |
19.3% |
5.8% |
4.0% |
3.7% |
2.9% |
0.4% |
8.1% |
0.9% |
5.1% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
3.4% |
5.6% |
4.0% |
3.4% |
2.6% |
2.5% |
0.4% |
1.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
5.0% |
10.1% |
4.6% |
3.6% |
2.9% |
2.6% |
0.4% |
3.3% |
0.3% |
1.7% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
4.1% |
4.0% |
3.4% |
2.5% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
0.4% |
0.9% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
2.6% |
7.2% |
4.6% |
4.3% |
4.1% |
1.8% |
0.4% |
1.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Matmo at 10/05/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
5.9% |
4.4% |
1.9% |
0.8% |
0.6% |
2.5% |
0.4% |
2.9% |
0.4% |
4.5% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
16.2% |
29.2% |
28.5% |
28.5% |
16.2% |
21.2% |
6.1% |
3.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
12.7% |
20.9% |
19.6% |
19.3% |
11.0% |
14.9% |
4.1% |
3.0% |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
20.8% |
27.1% |
27.1% |
27.1% |
7.0% |
25.5% |
4.7% |
2.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
11.5% |
31.3% |
30.0% |
30.0% |
25.5% |
16.8% |
7.4% |
3.9% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Matmo at 10/05/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
6.2% |
4.3% |
3.8% |
1.4% |
0.7% |
2.6% |
0.4% |
1.0% |
0.2% |
0.7% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
32.4% |
36.8% |
35.6% |
35.6% |
23.6% |
31.0% |
11.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
23.7% |
25.9% |
25.0% |
24.2% |
16.0% |
21.5% |
7.5% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
49.0% |
38.6% |
38.6% |
38.6% |
17.7% |
37.6% |
9.9% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
15.9% |
34.9% |
32.6% |
32.6% |
29.6% |
24.4% |
12.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Matmo at 10/04/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
6.8% |
9.0% |
5.4% |
2.9% |
1.5% |
2.6% |
0.5% |
7.1% |
3.5% |
4.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
43.5% |
53.6% |
53.6% |
53.6% |
36.1% |
32.5% |
15.2% |
10.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
31.3% |
38.7% |
37.5% |
36.6% |
24.5% |
22.5% |
10.2% |
9.1% |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
58.9% |
55.6% |
55.6% |
55.6% |
21.2% |
33.9% |
14.2% |
8.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
28.2% |
51.6% |
51.6% |
51.6% |
51.0% |
31.0% |
16.1% |
12.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Matmo at 10/04/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
11.1% |
25.7% |
12.0% |
4.6% |
1.2% |
5.7% |
1.1% |
12.4% |
1.3% |
4.3% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
47.0% |
63.1% |
63.1% |
63.1% |
45.6% |
36.6% |
21.2% |
16.3% |
6.8% |
3.8% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
35.0% |
50.6% |
46.0% |
43.6% |
30.7% |
26.3% |
14.5% |
14.9% |
4.9% |
3.9% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
57.8% |
60.2% |
60.2% |
60.2% |
25.1% |
30.0% |
16.5% |
9.9% |
2.9% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
36.3% |
66.0% |
66.0% |
66.0% |
66.0% |
43.2% |
25.9% |
22.6% |
10.6% |
7.2% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Matmo at 10/04/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
9.6% |
23.7% |
20.5% |
17.3% |
5.8% |
17.6% |
5.9% |
2.4% |
3.2% |
7.8% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
13.3% |
29.3% |
21.2% |
21.2% |
15.5% |
13.6% |
4.8% |
5.5% |
1.4% |
1.7% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
12.0% |
27.4% |
21.0% |
19.9% |
12.2% |
14.9% |
5.2% |
4.4% |
1.9% |
3.7% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
13.5% |
22.3% |
14.4% |
14.4% |
4.9% |
10.1% |
3.5% |
2.6% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
13.1% |
36.4% |
28.1% |
28.1% |
26.1% |
17.2% |
6.2% |
8.4% |
2.4% |
3.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Matmo at 10/03/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
1.8% |
1.0% |
0.1% |
0.7% |
0.3% |
1.3% |
0.7% |
1.7% |
0.4% |
13.3% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
6.0% |
22.3% |
14.9% |
13.0% |
11.1% |
8.8% |
2.7% |
4.7% |
0.9% |
2.7% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
4.6% |
15.2% |
9.9% |
8.8% |
7.5% |
6.3% |
2.0% |
3.6% |
0.6% |
6.2% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
5.4% |
15.5% |
9.8% |
6.0% |
2.6% |
8.3% |
2.6% |
2.1% |
0.3% |
1.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
6.6% |
29.1% |
19.9% |
19.9% |
19.6% |
9.4% |
2.7% |
7.2% |
1.4% |
3.5% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Matmo at 10/03/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
9.6% |
23.1% |
16.4% |
6.2% |
6.6% |
6.7% |
2.0% |
5.8% |
1.6% |
21.9% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
6.0% |
26.9% |
19.3% |
17.3% |
14.2% |
12.0% |
4.1% |
7.0% |
1.5% |
4.3% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
7.1% |
25.6% |
18.3% |
13.6% |
11.6% |
10.2% |
3.4% |
6.5% |
1.5% |
10.1% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
5.3% |
19.2% |
13.0% |
8.9% |
2.7% |
11.7% |
4.4% |
5.2% |
1.2% |
3.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
6.6% |
34.7% |
25.7% |
25.7% |
25.7% |
12.2% |
3.9% |
8.7% |
1.8% |
4.6% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Matmo at 10/03/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
16.8% |
55.9% |
44.5% |
32.8% |
15.7% |
25.7% |
13.8% |
11.7% |
6.1% |
37.6% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
43.8% |
75.1% |
71.7% |
71.7% |
53.9% |
51.1% |
34.3% |
27.1% |
11.6% |
10.2% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
34.8% |
68.7% |
62.6% |
58.7% |
41.1% |
42.6% |
27.4% |
22.0% |
9.7% |
19.3% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
45.4% |
69.5% |
62.7% |
62.7% |
27.2% |
41.7% |
26.1% |
19.4% |
7.2% |
4.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
42.2% |
80.7% |
80.7% |
80.7% |
80.6% |
60.5% |
42.4% |
34.9% |
16.0% |
16.1% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Matmo at 10/03/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
31.9% |
64.3% |
57.3% |
45.2% |
36.3% |
38.8% |
24.5% |
13.7% |
14.8% |
6.5% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
61.3% |
81.9% |
81.1% |
81.1% |
68.0% |
68.4% |
51.5% |
40.5% |
22.3% |
14.4% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
51.5% |
76.0% |
73.2% |
69.1% |
57.4% |
58.5% |
42.5% |
31.5% |
19.8% |
11.7% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
68.6% |
78.0% |
76.4% |
76.4% |
50.1% |
62.0% |
41.4% |
32.7% |
15.9% |
6.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
54.1% |
85.9% |
85.9% |
85.9% |
85.9% |
74.8% |
61.6% |
48.3% |
28.7% |
22.7% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Twentyseve at 10/02/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
11.9% |
34.5% |
17.7% |
8.3% |
18.7% |
27.2% |
16.9% |
40.9% |
27.9% |
32.3% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
22.8% |
63.3% |
50.5% |
43.7% |
38.5% |
56.4% |
41.9% |
49.0% |
31.1% |
41.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
19.1% |
53.7% |
39.5% |
31.8% |
31.8% |
46.6% |
33.6% |
46.2% |
30.0% |
38.1% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
19.7% |
55.2% |
40.5% |
26.8% |
16.4% |
43.6% |
31.7% |
49.5% |
25.8% |
38.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
25.9% |
71.4% |
60.5% |
60.5% |
60.5% |
69.2% |
52.2% |
48.4% |
36.4% |
43.8% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Twentyseve at 10/02/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
12.9% |
57.8% |
46.8% |
24.1% |
17.2% |
31.7% |
28.4% |
45.5% |
32.9% |
34.2% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
39.0% |
79.4% |
73.4% |
65.9% |
58.7% |
72.9% |
63.5% |
54.7% |
43.9% |
56.7% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
30.3% |
72.2% |
64.5% |
51.9% |
44.8% |
59.1% |
51.8% |
51.6% |
40.2% |
49.1% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
38.3% |
73.6% |
65.5% |
50.6% |
36.1% |
60.4% |
49.3% |
41.9% |
25.0% |
50.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
39.7% |
85.3% |
81.2% |
81.2% |
81.2% |
85.5% |
77.8% |
67.6% |
62.8% |
63.3% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Twentyseve at 10/01/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
26.6% |
57.4% |
39.6% |
24.7% |
19.2% |
48.8% |
31.5% |
43.2% |
43.4% |
41.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
20.4% |
73.9% |
60.5% |
49.9% |
46.6% |
69.6% |
60.8% |
56.7% |
49.5% |
69.3% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
22.4% |
68.3% |
53.5% |
41.4% |
37.4% |
62.6% |
51.0% |
52.1% |
47.4% |
59.9% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
14.0% |
65.0% |
45.9% |
24.7% |
20.3% |
51.9% |
41.0% |
42.6% |
29.4% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
26.8% |
82.8% |
75.0% |
75.0% |
72.9% |
87.4% |
80.6% |
70.7% |
69.6% |
76.1% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Twentyseve at 10/01/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
13.1% |
38.1% |
26.5% |
8.9% |
7.5% |
25.4% |
15.3% |
34.1% |
33.4% |
52.3% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
8.7% |
58.7% |
39.3% |
32.2% |
27.2% |
66.0% |
57.3% |
64.5% |
64.9% |
72.4% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
10.2% |
51.8% |
35.0% |
24.4% |
20.6% |
52.5% |
43.2% |
54.3% |
54.3% |
65.7% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
4.4% |
45.7% |
23.7% |
11.3% |
3.8% |
46.4% |
37.3% |
70.1% |
58.8% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
13.1% |
71.6% |
54.8% |
53.1% |
50.6% |
85.7% |
77.3% |
58.8% |
70.9% |
82.2% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Twentyseve at 10/01/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
14.9% |
55.8% |
42.0% |
17.7% |
9.9% |
34.0% |
20.7% |
45.8% |
41.5% |
58.1% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
14.9% |
69.9% |
53.1% |
48.8% |
36.1% |
74.0% |
69.9% |
85.6% |
86.0% |
76.8% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
14.9% |
65.2% |
49.4% |
38.4% |
27.3% |
60.6% |
53.5% |
72.3% |
71.1% |
70.5% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
6.1% |
56.6% |
31.6% |
22.9% |
2.6% |
54.3% |
48.5% |
87.6% |
83.6% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
23.8% |
83.3% |
74.7% |
74.7% |
69.6% |
93.6% |
91.3% |
83.6% |
88.4% |
91.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|