Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Twentyeigh intensity image current Twentyeigh RI diff image

 


Twenty-Eight at 10/10/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/10/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/10/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/09/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/09/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/09/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 15.8% 5.0% 3.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 5.2% 1.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/09/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/08/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/08/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/08/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.3% 3.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/08/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.7% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/07/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.4% 9.4% 1.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.1% 3.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/07/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 24.5% 15.0% 4.6% 4.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.8% 5.0% 1.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 31.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/07/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 21.8% 25.4% 12.1% 7.2% 3.1% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 36.3% 23.5% 22.6% 22.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 31.4% 24.0% 19.0% 17.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 50.4% 25.9% 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 22.2% 21.0% 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/07/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 19.4% 17.0% 7.1% 3.2% 4.6% 1.8% 0.5% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 25.9% 25.7% 25.1% 25.1% 16.6% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 23.7% 22.8% 19.0% 17.7% 12.6% 9.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 32.5% 23.9% 23.9% 23.9% 9.8% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 19.4% 27.6% 26.2% 26.2% 23.4% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/06/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.3% 41.9% 26.8% 20.7% 13.6% 7.5% 5.8% 4.2% 0.8% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 12.5% 16.3% 14.4% 14.4% 9.6% 6.9% 3.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 13.7% 24.8% 18.5% 16.5% 10.9% 7.0% 4.1% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.2% 12.8% 12.8% 12.8% 4.2% 5.2% 3.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 10.8% 19.8% 16.1% 16.1% 15.0% 8.6% 3.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/06/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.0% 24.5% 20.0% 3.4% 7.6% 3.8% 5.2% 5.1% 0.4% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 16.6% 20.6% 18.8% 18.8% 13.1% 10.0% 5.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.0% 21.9% 19.2% 13.6% 11.2% 7.9% 5.3% 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.7% 19.1% 19.1% 19.1% 7.7% 9.3% 6.4% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 11.4% 22.2% 18.5% 18.5% 18.5% 10.8% 4.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/06/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.2% 27.0% 22.1% 15.1% 11.3% 10.1% 18.2% 7.8% 1.5% 1.9% RIPA Consensus 12.7% 19.7% 17.0% 17.0% 10.5% 9.8% 5.1% 4.2% 1.5% 0.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.5% 22.1% 18.7% 16.4% 10.7% 9.8% 9.4% 5.3% 1.5% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 15.8% 17.3% 17.3% 17.3% 4.2% 7.3% 5.0% 5.0% 1.4% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 9.5% 22.1% 16.8% 16.8% 16.8% 12.2% 5.1% 3.4% 1.7% 0.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/06/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.7% 31.0% 31.5% 14.3% 12.0% 16.4% 14.3% 14.4% 1.7% 5.4% RIPA Consensus 17.3% 25.5% 21.6% 21.6% 14.2% 15.0% 7.9% 5.0% 2.3% 0.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 13.7% 27.3% 24.8% 19.1% 13.4% 15.5% 10.0% 8.1% 2.1% 2.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 22.5% 21.3% 21.3% 21.3% 7.0% 9.4% 6.1% 5.2% 1.3% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 12.1% 29.7% 21.9% 21.9% 21.3% 20.7% 9.6% 4.8% 3.3% 1.4%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/05/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.8% 12.5% 4.8% 3.8% 5.4% 3.3% 1.9% 9.2% 0.9% 7.7% RIPA Consensus 16.4% 38.8% 35.2% 35.2% 22.0% 29.5% 18.9% 13.5% 7.7% 2.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.2% 30.0% 25.0% 24.7% 16.5% 20.7% 13.2% 12.0% 5.4% 4.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 19.0% 31.3% 31.3% 31.3% 6.6% 16.8% 11.6% 12.3% 4.3% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 13.8% 46.3% 39.0% 39.0% 37.5% 42.2% 26.3% 14.7% 11.2% 5.5%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/05/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.3% 26.4% 17.0% 13.3% 12.3% 23.4% 18.3% 19.8% 6.4% 9.7% RIPA Consensus 6.2% 24.1% 16.3% 16.3% 10.6% 21.2% 11.5% 10.8% 6.1% 4.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.9% 24.8% 16.5% 15.2% 11.1% 21.8% 13.8% 13.7% 6.2% 6.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.5% 15.1% 10.4% 10.4% 1.8% 8.5% 5.0% 9.1% 2.8% 0.6%
Logistic Regression 5.9% 33.1% 22.1% 22.1% 19.4% 33.8% 18.1% 12.4% 9.4% 7.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/05/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.6% 20.0% 24.1% 11.4% 6.2% 11.6% 3.7% 12.5% 2.9% 10.6% RIPA Consensus 5.2% 19.4% 10.5% 9.6% 7.6% 19.7% 9.8% 13.0% 6.9% 6.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.6% 19.5% 15.0% 10.2% 7.1% 17.0% 7.7% 12.8% 5.5% 8.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.0% 11.7% 7.3% 5.5% 1.5% 8.7% 5.1% 13.4% 4.5% 2.9%
Logistic Regression 5.3% 27.0% 13.8% 13.8% 13.7% 30.7% 14.5% 12.7% 9.2% 11.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Halong at 10/05/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 3.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 6.5% 0.4% 6.5% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 6.7% 2.6% 2.1% 1.7% 8.9% 3.3% 6.3% 2.8% 6.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 5.5% 2.2% 1.5% 1.2% 6.2% 2.2% 6.3% 1.9% 6.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 1.9% 1.1% 6.1% 1.6% 3.5%
Logistic Regression 1.7% 11.7% 4.6% 3.9% 3.4% 15.8% 5.4% 6.6% 3.9% 9.8%
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Twentyeigh at 10/04/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 3.6% 0.3% 3.8% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 9.2% 3.7% 3.4% 2.4% 11.5% 4.6% 7.9% 4.0% 9.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 6.4% 2.5% 2.3% 1.5% 7.8% 3.1% 6.4% 2.7% 7.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 3.5% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 2.9% 1.7% 7.5% 2.0% 3.9%
Logistic Regression 2.0% 14.9% 5.8% 5.2% 4.7% 20.2% 7.5% 8.3% 6.0% 15.4%
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Twentyeigh at 10/04/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 4.3% 1.4% 1.0% 0.5% 2.4% 1.1% 7.3% 0.8% 5.6% RIPA Consensus 2.9% 14.4% 6.5% 5.8% 4.5% 12.8% 5.3% 6.6% 3.4% 8.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 11.0% 4.8% 4.2% 3.1% 9.3% 3.8% 6.8% 2.5% 7.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 7.0% 3.8% 2.9% 0.6% 3.8% 2.1% 6.3% 1.5% 3.3%
Logistic Regression 3.4% 21.7% 9.2% 8.7% 8.5% 21.8% 8.4% 6.8% 5.3% 12.9%
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