Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)                                                                                                                             Nakri at 10/14/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/14/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 20.3% 14.3% 5.7% 2.2% 8.4% 2.3% 8.5% 0.3% 4.9% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 6.7% 4.7% 1.9% 0.7% 2.8% 0.7% 2.8% 0.0% 1.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/14/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.9% 26.3% 12.9% 8.5% 3.5% 7.2% 3.0% 6.6% 0.5% 4.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 8.7% 4.3% 2.8% 1.1% 2.4% 1.0% 2.1% 0.1% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/14/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/13/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/13/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/13/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 4.0% 6.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 1.3% 2.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/13/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 1.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 2.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/12/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 4.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/12/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/12/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/12/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/11/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 10.2% 5.8% 4.0% 3.4% 2.5% 3.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.0% 4.3% 4.3% 3.6% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.4% 7.4% 3.7% 3.2% 3.0% 5.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/11/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.0% 24.1% 3.8% 4.2% 1.9% 3.6% 1.2% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 2.6% 2.8% 1.4% 1.1% 0.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 9.8% 2.1% 2.1% 1.1% 2.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 4.6% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 3.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/11/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 8.2% 3.1% 1.4% 1.0% 1.6% 1.5% 2.9% 1.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 1.1% 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/11/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 2.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 2.9% 1.0% 3.4% 1.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 1.9% 0.6% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 5.3% 1.5% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.2% 4.9% 1.9% 1.3% 1.2% 5.4% 1.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/10/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.2% 11.1% 11.0% 9.6% 3.2% 7.9% 1.6% 5.2% 1.5% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 3.4% 11.8% 6.7% 5.7% 3.7% 12.9% 7.0% 8.3% 3.4% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.3% 11.6% 8.1% 6.9% 3.5% 11.2% 5.2% 7.2% 2.7% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 5.8% 3.3% 2.4% 0.5% 3.3% 3.0% 12.2% 4.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 4.4% 17.9% 10.1% 8.9% 7.0% 22.6% 11.0% 4.3% 2.5% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/10/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 1.1% 0.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 4.5% 1.9% 1.3% 1.0% 4.9% 1.9% 6.9% 2.3% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 3.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.7% 3.6% 1.2% 5.2% 1.5% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.9% 10.3% 3.5% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.3% 7.7% 3.1% 2.3% 2.0% 8.9% 2.8% 3.5% 1.0% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/10/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 2.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 1.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 2.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 2.0% 0.6% 4.0% 1.1% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 1.8% 0.4% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 6.1% 1.8% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.8% 3.7% 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 3.6% 0.9% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/10/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 2.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 3.8% 1.4% 5.4% 2.0% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 2.6% 0.9% 3.9% 1.4% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.9% 9.9% 3.4% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.0% 4.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 6.6% 1.8% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/09/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 4.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.1% 6.7% 2.7% 6.6% 2.8% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 1.5% 1.4% 11.2% 3.9% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.7% 8.0% 3.3% 2.6% 2.2% 11.8% 4.0% 2.0% 1.7% 1.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/09/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 5.2% 0.1% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 1.9% 9.3% 4.4% 3.3% 3.0% 11.5% 5.0% 14.7% 7.7% 6.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 6.3% 3.0% 2.2% 2.0% 7.7% 3.4% 11.5% 5.1% 4.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 3.1% 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 3.6% 2.7% 22.1% 9.6% 5.9% Logistic Regression 2.8% 15.6% 7.3% 6.1% 5.4% 19.4% 7.4% 7.4% 5.8% 7.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/09/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 2.9% 0.5% 2.7% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 9.4% 4.3% 3.1% 3.0% 12.5% 5.4% 17.8% 10.0% 10.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 6.6% 2.9% 2.2% 2.0% 8.9% 3.7% 12.8% 6.8% 7.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.0% 3.4% 1.9% 0.7% 0.7% 5.0% 3.7% 27.6% 13.7% 12.1% Logistic Regression 2.3% 15.5% 6.7% 5.5% 5.4% 19.9% 7.2% 8.1% 6.4% 8.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/09/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 3.1% 0.1% 4.2% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 9.5% 4.4% 3.2% 3.1% 10.5% 4.1% 14.7% 6.7% 15.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.1% 6.4% 3.0% 2.1% 2.0% 7.0% 2.7% 10.8% 4.5% 11.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 4.0% 2.5% 1.0% 0.8% 5.2% 3.2% 22.0% 9.1% 21.2% Logistic Regression 1.9% 14.9% 6.3% 5.4% 5.4% 15.7% 5.1% 7.4% 4.3% 10.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/08/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 4.2% 0.2% 13.3% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 13.4% 6.4% 4.9% 4.5% 14.8% 6.3% 13.5% 6.1% 11.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 9.1% 4.2% 3.3% 3.0% 10.1% 4.2% 10.3% 4.1% 11.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 7.3% 4.7% 2.2% 1.4% 7.8% 4.8% 17.4% 6.6% 10.7% Logistic Regression 2.0% 19.5% 8.0% 7.6% 7.6% 21.7% 7.7% 9.5% 5.7% 11.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nakri at 10/08/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 7.8% 0.4% 10.2% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 8.4% 3.0% 2.1% 1.9% 12.3% 4.7% 14.5% 7.3% 20.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 6.1% 2.1% 1.4% 1.3% 8.5% 3.2% 12.2% 4.9% 17.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 3.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.4% 4.7% 2.9% 20.2% 8.0% 21.8% Logistic Regression 1.2% 13.0% 4.2% 3.5% 3.4% 19.9% 6.5% 8.7% 6.5% 19.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Twentynine at 10/08/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 6.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 7.3% 1.1% 11.6% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 5.4% 1.6% 1.1% 0.8% 9.2% 3.0% 12.9% 6.1% 22.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 5.8% 1.4% 0.8% 0.6% 6.3% 2.2% 11.0% 4.3% 18.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 2.9% 1.5% 17.6% 6.5% 23.1% Logistic Regression 0.8% 9.0% 2.6% 2.0% 1.7% 15.5% 4.5% 8.2% 5.6% 21.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------