Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Thirty at 10/23/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 3.0% 0.7% 7.2% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% 9.3% 3.4% 16.0% 8.3% 40.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 2.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 6.4% 2.2% 11.6% 5.8% 29.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.9% 20.7% 8.7% 44.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 5.3% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 17.0% 5.8% 11.2% 8.0% 37.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Thirty at 10/23/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 0.1% 5.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/23/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 3.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 1.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/22/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 3.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/22/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 7.6% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 2.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/22/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 13.7% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 4.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/22/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 5.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 1.2% 11.6% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 4.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 1.6% 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 1.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/21/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 4.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.3% 1.3% 31.5% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 4.0% 2.2% 2.0% 1.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 4.2% 1.7% 1.5% 0.7% 1.7% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 10.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% -0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.5% 6.8% 3.3% 3.0% 2.3% 4.4% 1.2% 1.8% 0.4% 1.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/21/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 4.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 2.9% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.1% 6.8% 3.1% 2.7% 2.2% 4.7% 1.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/21/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 3.0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% 2.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% -0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.9% 5.2% 2.1% 1.8% 1.5% 3.7% 0.9% 1.4% 0.4% 1.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/21/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 2.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.8% 4.8% 1.9% 1.6% 1.4% 3.5% 0.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/20/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 8.3% 4.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 3.6% 1.5% 1.3% 0.9% 2.3% 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.8% 5.1% 2.5% 0.9% 0.6% 1.6% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.1% 6.0% 2.5% 2.2% 1.8% 4.2% 1.1% 1.6% 0.5% 1.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/20/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 3.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 3.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.8% 1.7% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.2% 6.4% 2.7% 2.4% 1.9% 4.3% 1.1% 1.7% 0.5% 1.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/20/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.0% 5.2% 3.0% 2.1% 1.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.6% 1.3% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 5.8% 19.5% 11.9% 11.9% 7.2% 13.2% 5.7% 4.2% 1.8% 2.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.2% 14.7% 8.9% 8.6% 5.3% 9.2% 3.9% 3.0% 1.6% 2.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.7% 12.9% 8.5% 8.5% 0.8% 4.6% 2.2% 2.0% 0.3% 0.2% Logistic Regression 6.0% 26.2% 15.3% 15.3% 13.6% 21.8% 9.2% 6.4% 3.4% 5.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/20/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.3% 22.8% 20.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 0.6% 1.3% 1.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 14.3% 35.1% 24.2% 24.2% 17.4% 26.2% 14.2% 7.6% 4.3% 4.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.3% 31.0% 22.8% 16.8% 12.3% 18.1% 9.6% 5.5% 3.2% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.8% 25.7% 16.6% 16.6% 5.4% 12.0% 6.4% 3.7% 0.9% 0.1% Logistic Regression 13.8% 44.5% 31.8% 31.8% 29.4% 40.4% 22.0% 11.6% 7.8% 8.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/19/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.8% 25.9% 9.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 9.4% 30.6% 18.3% 16.3% 13.2% 23.7% 11.9% 9.3% 4.5% 5.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.2% 29.0% 15.3% 11.2% 9.1% 16.0% 8.0% 6.5% 3.1% 3.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.7% 20.8% 11.0% 7.2% 3.6% 9.7% 4.8% 7.4% 1.9% 1.3% Logistic Regression 10.1% 40.3% 25.5% 25.5% 22.9% 37.6% 19.1% 11.2% 7.2% 8.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/19/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 13.4% 7.0% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 2.1% 16.1% 7.5% 6.1% 5.2% 12.2% 4.6% 9.6% 3.4% 5.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.7% 15.1% 7.3% 4.6% 3.9% 8.5% 3.4% 7.0% 2.4% 3.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.4% 9.0% 4.3% 2.1% 0.4% 6.2% 2.8% 10.1% 3.1% 3.8% Logistic Regression 2.7% 23.2% 10.7% 10.0% 10.0% 18.1% 6.4% 9.1% 3.7% 7.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/19/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.8% 47.9% 46.5% 16.2% 19.5% 16.3% 6.6% 5.5% 9.8% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 4.7% 34.7% 19.5% 16.8% 13.7% 27.0% 12.9% 17.3% 7.1% 9.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.0% 39.0% 28.4% 16.5% 15.6% 23.4% 10.7% 13.3% 8.0% 6.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.3% 22.3% 9.0% 3.7% 1.4% 12.2% 5.0% 17.0% 5.7% 8.4% Logistic Regression 7.1% 47.0% 29.9% 29.9% 26.0% 41.9% 20.7% 17.6% 8.5% 11.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/19/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.8% 8.8% 4.7% 3.1% 1.2% 5.4% 2.3% 5.1% 6.6% 1.7% RIPA Consensus 4.4% 32.4% 17.6% 14.0% 12.7% 27.0% 12.6% 25.4% 11.8% 13.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.2% 24.5% 13.2% 10.3% 8.8% 19.8% 9.1% 18.6% 10.0% 9.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.5% 22.1% 10.7% 4.0% 1.4% 16.6% 7.8% 29.3% 13.3% 15.8% Logistic Regression 6.3% 42.8% 24.5% 24.0% 24.0% 37.4% 17.4% 21.5% 10.2% 11.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/18/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.9% 19.2% 4.5% 2.4% 3.2% 4.9% 2.6% 8.8% 5.4% 2.7% RIPA Consensus 10.1% 47.9% 30.0% 26.2% 22.5% 40.7% 23.3% 33.7% 18.9% 20.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.0% 38.3% 21.5% 18.2% 16.0% 28.7% 16.4% 25.4% 14.4% 14.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.0% 36.0% 18.6% 10.9% 3.7% 26.8% 14.9% 35.9% 18.1% 19.7% Logistic Regression 13.2% 59.8% 41.4% 41.4% 41.4% 54.5% 31.8% 31.5% 19.7% 20.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/18/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.5% 44.6% 31.9% 10.8% 9.2% 17.0% 8.8% 20.9% 13.0% 11.0% RIPA Consensus 11.4% 59.6% 41.7% 36.4% 31.8% 55.6% 40.0% 47.9% 30.1% 31.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.7% 54.5% 38.4% 27.8% 24.2% 42.7% 29.6% 38.9% 24.4% 24.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.5% 47.9% 26.0% 15.3% 6.1% 39.5% 26.0% 47.4% 25.1% 31.9% Logistic Regression 15.4% 71.2% 57.5% 57.5% 57.5% 71.8% 54.1% 48.4% 35.1% 30.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/18/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.0% 41.4% 25.0% 3.0% 1.9% 6.9% 4.0% 23.4% 4.1% 6.7% RIPA Consensus 9.0% 60.8% 42.7% 40.3% 30.8% 60.7% 49.3% 54.6% 40.1% 45.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.3% 54.3% 36.8% 27.8% 21.2% 42.7% 34.2% 44.1% 28.1% 32.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.7% 47.3% 23.5% 18.7% 2.1% 39.5% 27.8% 48.4% 25.2% 35.8% Logistic Regression 13.3% 74.4% 61.9% 61.9% 59.6% 81.9% 70.9% 60.8% 55.1% 55.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fengshen at 10/18/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.8% 35.8% 15.1% 6.8% 2.3% 23.2% 12.6% 32.8% 17.6% 47.4% RIPA Consensus 12.3% 64.6% 48.0% 41.3% 35.0% 70.1% 60.2% 55.8% 47.1% 61.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.8% 54.9% 37.0% 29.8% 24.0% 54.4% 44.3% 48.1% 37.2% 57.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.4% 53.3% 33.7% 20.4% 7.8% 53.6% 41.8% 41.8% 25.2% 52.8% Logistic Regression 15.3% 75.8% 62.2% 62.2% 62.2% 86.6% 78.7% 69.7% 69.0% 71.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------