Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Thirtyone intensity image current Thirtyone RI diff image

 


Thirty-One at 11/07/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 5.2% 1.7% 3.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 3.5% 1.1% 2.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 9.6% 3.1% 6.9%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7%
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Thirty-One at 11/07/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 3.8%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
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Kalmaegi at 11/07/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
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Kalmaegi at 11/06/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 3.6% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
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Kalmaegi at 11/06/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.2% 14.7% 10.5% 5.0% 6.9% 10.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.4% 5.1% 3.6% 1.7% 2.3% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Kalmaegi at 11/06/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.6% 22.8% 19.7% 3.7% 4.4% 5.7% 1.5% 0.9% 0.1% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 4.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.9% 8.5% 7.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Kalmaegi at 11/06/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 23.2% 30.6% 23.3% 18.7% 2.9% 11.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 12.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 15.8% 12.2% 7.7% 6.2% 0.9% 3.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 3.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Kalmaegi at 11/05/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 37.4% 32.6% 27.1% 9.4% 13.9% 18.7% 2.3% 4.4% 0.9% 2.7% RIPA Consensus 25.5% 9.6% 7.2% 7.2% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 29.4% 17.2% 13.7% 7.8% 8.8% 6.2% 0.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 42.0% 11.2% 9.5% 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 8.9% 7.9% 4.8% 4.8% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Kalmaegi at 11/05/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 39.8% 31.2% 24.5% 13.8% 12.1% 10.3% 0.9% 1.6% 0.6% 6.6% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kalmaegi at 11/05/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 27.0% 41.1% 31.7% 17.8% 12.4% 27.7% 4.0% 3.9% 4.5% 6.3% RIPA Consensus 26.8% 36.6% 30.5% 30.5% 21.3% 10.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 26.8% 38.1% 30.9% 26.3% 18.3% 15.9% 3.0% 2.0% 1.5% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 36.5% 36.2% 28.0% 28.0% 14.5% 11.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 17.0% 37.0% 33.1% 33.1% 28.2% 8.9% 2.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0%
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Kalmaegi at 11/05/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 14.0% 26.9% 21.0% 20.4% 11.1% 20.7% 4.3% 0.9% 1.0% 5.9% RIPA Consensus 19.1% 38.0% 30.3% 29.7% 23.7% 12.4% 3.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.4% 34.2% 27.1% 26.5% 19.4% 15.1% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 2.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 25.0% 36.1% 25.2% 24.0% 15.7% 14.0% 4.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 13.2% 39.8% 35.3% 35.3% 31.6% 10.7% 3.1% 2.9% 0.6% 0.8%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kalmaegi at 11/04/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.9% 33.3% 15.2% 14.8% 6.3% 19.3% 4.1% 0.6% 1.7% 2.7% RIPA Consensus 11.3% 30.3% 21.9% 20.9% 14.7% 11.4% 3.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.5% 31.3% 19.6% 18.8% 11.9% 14.0% 3.4% 1.5% 0.8% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.7% 26.9% 16.3% 14.4% 7.3% 12.3% 3.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 8.9% 33.7% 27.4% 27.4% 22.1% 10.5% 2.9% 3.3% 0.7% 0.8%
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Kalmaegi at 11/04/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.3% 41.9% 23.3% 14.2% 13.8% 23.0% 3.3% 2.3% 2.0% 3.2% RIPA Consensus 10.0% 25.4% 17.4% 15.5% 12.2% 11.5% 3.2% 2.6% 0.4% 0.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.1% 30.8% 19.4% 15.0% 12.7% 15.3% 3.2% 2.5% 0.9% 1.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.8% 23.2% 15.1% 11.2% 7.2% 13.8% 4.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 7.3% 27.6% 19.8% 19.8% 17.1% 9.3% 2.5% 3.9% 0.7% 0.8%
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Kalmaegi at 11/04/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 10.9% 23.8% 15.6% 2.5% 2.2% 11.8% 1.8% 3.5% 2.1% 3.6% RIPA Consensus 3.2% 18.9% 11.6% 9.7% 7.0% 7.1% 1.5% 4.0% 0.5% 1.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.8% 20.5% 12.9% 7.3% 5.3% 8.6% 1.5% 3.8% 1.0% 2.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.3% 15.9% 7.8% 4.0% 2.4% 8.4% 1.6% 2.2% 0.2% 2.0%
Logistic Regression 3.2% 21.9% 15.4% 15.4% 11.5% 5.8% 1.3% 5.8% 0.7% 1.3%
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Kalmaegi at 11/04/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.3% 23.6% 20.7% 4.6% 5.6% 7.9% 2.1% 1.9% 2.7% 1.4% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 7.1% 3.5% 2.9% 2.2% 2.6% 0.3% 2.0% 0.2% 1.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 12.6% 9.2% 3.4% 3.3% 4.3% 0.8% 1.9% 1.0% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 5.0% 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 3.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 2.3%
Logistic Regression 1.2% 9.2% 5.4% 5.0% 3.6% 1.8% 0.3% 3.2% 0.2% 0.8%
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Kalmaegi at 11/03/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.5% 34.5% 42.6% 16.9% 21.1% 12.1% 3.7% 5.2% 2.7% 3.3% RIPA Consensus 10.5% 28.8% 19.8% 16.7% 14.9% 16.0% 3.4% 6.2% 1.2% 2.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.1% 30.6% 27.4% 16.8% 16.9% 14.7% 3.5% 5.8% 1.6% 2.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.0% 29.0% 18.0% 11.9% 11.9% 23.1% 4.5% 6.4% 1.2% 2.4%
Logistic Regression 6.9% 28.5% 21.6% 21.6% 17.9% 8.9% 2.3% 6.0% 1.1% 1.7%
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Kalmaegi at 11/03/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 41.9% 56.1% 63.9% 55.5% 48.5% 40.9% 15.1% 6.3% 4.3% 2.5% RIPA Consensus 48.5% 58.7% 51.8% 51.8% 49.2% 50.2% 19.8% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 46.2% 57.7% 55.8% 53.0% 48.9% 47.1% 18.2% 12.7% 1.4% 0.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 68.9% 63.0% 54.0% 54.0% 54.0% 65.0% 23.2% 22.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic Regression 28.0% 54.3% 49.5% 49.5% 44.4% 35.5% 16.4% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kalmaegi at 11/03/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 32.8% 49.8% 49.8% 36.8% 33.0% 33.0% 14.0% 7.9% 5.8% 5.2% RIPA Consensus 58.9% 74.7% 72.6% 72.6% 72.3% 49.3% 22.9% 21.8% 8.4% 8.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 50.1% 66.4% 65.0% 60.6% 59.1% 43.8% 19.9% 17.1% 7.5% 7.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 76.4% 77.9% 76.3% 76.3% 76.3% 57.3% 26.7% 26.0% 9.8% 8.9%
Logistic Regression 41.4% 71.6% 69.0% 69.0% 68.3% 41.3% 19.2% 17.6% 7.1% 8.5%
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Kalmaegi at 11/03/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.2% 49.4% 44.0% 32.3% 39.2% 34.1% 14.3% 17.7% 11.1% 7.3% RIPA Consensus 53.6% 76.8% 73.5% 71.3% 71.3% 50.8% 26.7% 31.3% 13.1% 16.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 40.1% 67.6% 63.6% 58.3% 60.6% 45.2% 22.6% 26.8% 12.4% 13.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 69.0% 78.0% 73.7% 69.4% 69.4% 54.5% 29.9% 35.1% 15.6% 19.5%
Logistic Regression 38.2% 75.5% 73.2% 73.2% 73.2% 47.2% 23.6% 27.6% 10.6% 13.8%
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Kalmaegi at 11/02/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.0% 39.6% 28.0% 17.5% 8.4% 27.6% 15.6% 22.3% 22.1% 21.5% RIPA Consensus 37.6% 75.2% 65.7% 58.8% 57.9% 54.2% 30.8% 40.0% 20.3% 32.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 30.3% 63.3% 53.1% 45.0% 41.3% 45.3% 25.7% 34.0% 20.9% 28.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 43.6% 73.1% 58.7% 44.8% 44.8% 51.0% 28.3% 42.9% 22.6% 38.3%
Logistic Regression 31.5% 77.3% 72.7% 72.7% 70.9% 57.5% 33.3% 37.0% 18.0% 27.0%
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Kalmaegi at 11/02/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 31.8% 36.1% 23.8% 21.2% 6.9% 25.4% 10.9% 6.8% 14.3% 7.7% RIPA Consensus 32.9% 75.5% 64.1% 58.9% 58.2% 64.2% 40.6% 49.5% 27.9% 46.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 32.5% 62.3% 50.6% 46.3% 41.0% 51.3% 30.7% 35.2% 23.3% 33.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 36.2% 72.9% 56.7% 46.3% 46.3% 59.5% 34.0% 49.6% 25.5% 52.7%
Logistic Regression 29.5% 78.0% 71.4% 71.4% 70.0% 69.0% 47.2% 49.3% 30.4% 39.8%
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Kalmaegi at 11/02/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 11.2% 30.7% 19.0% 14.0% 8.0% 29.1% 20.3% 33.7% 25.9% 24.6% RIPA Consensus 20.0% 69.4% 55.2% 45.1% 45.0% 60.6% 38.8% 46.7% 30.7% 53.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.0% 56.5% 43.1% 34.6% 32.6% 50.1% 32.6% 42.3% 29.0% 43.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 20.5% 65.6% 47.8% 27.6% 27.6% 54.2% 32.7% 42.7% 26.6% 60.2%
Logistic Regression 19.5% 73.3% 62.5% 62.5% 62.4% 67.1% 44.9% 50.6% 34.8% 46.3%
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Kalmaegi at 11/02/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.7% 44.9% 23.4% 13.8% 9.5% 18.5% 11.8% 28.9% 18.6% 28.3% RIPA Consensus 13.9% 61.8% 44.5% 37.5% 37.5% 57.5% 36.9% 45.6% 31.3% 52.9%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.8% 56.1% 37.5% 29.6% 28.2% 44.5% 28.5% 39.9% 27.0% 44.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 14.6% 56.7% 37.7% 23.7% 23.7% 49.4% 31.0% 41.8% 25.9% 60.2%
Logistic Regression 13.3% 66.9% 51.4% 51.4% 51.4% 65.6% 42.7% 49.3% 36.8% 45.6%
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Kalmaegi at 11/01/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.4% 37.8% 33.2% 20.0% 11.3% 26.4% 19.4% 32.0% 23.4% 38.6% RIPA Consensus 18.0% 70.2% 53.9% 46.3% 44.5% 65.7% 49.6% 51.9% 41.8% 60.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.8% 59.4% 46.9% 37.5% 33.4% 52.6% 39.5% 45.2% 35.6% 53.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 16.3% 63.9% 42.0% 26.9% 26.9% 50.3% 32.5% 41.8% 25.8% 57.4%
Logistic Regression 19.7% 76.5% 65.7% 65.7% 62.1% 81.2% 66.8% 62.0% 57.9% 63.4%
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Thirtyone at 11/01/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 20.6% 39.3% 21.1% 12.1% 11.0% 13.3% 8.2% 17.7% 15.4% 19.6% RIPA Consensus 5.1% 47.0% 25.7% 23.7% 20.8% 51.5% 33.8% 47.2% 36.0% 64.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.2% 44.4% 24.1% 19.8% 17.5% 38.7% 25.2% 37.3% 29.0% 49.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.4% 36.9% 15.3% 11.4% 11.4% 33.9% 20.1% 43.7% 26.6% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 6.8% 57.1% 36.1% 36.1% 30.1% 69.1% 47.4% 50.7% 45.3% 65.6%
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Thirtyone at 11/01/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.6% 43.1% 23.7% 11.4% 6.9% 17.9% 12.2% 21.9% 13.5% 24.7% RIPA Consensus 3.0% 35.4% 16.4% 11.8% 10.1% 39.7% 22.4% 42.4% 29.5% 59.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.5% 37.9% 18.8% 11.6% 9.0% 32.4% 19.0% 35.6% 24.1% 48.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 26.1% 10.6% 2.6% 2.0% 22.9% 12.9% 48.6% 26.4% 62.6%
Logistic Regression 4.2% 44.7% 22.2% 21.0% 18.2% 56.4% 31.9% 36.3% 32.5% 56.9%
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