|
| Fung-wong at 11/13/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
1.3% |
0.0% |
1.2% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.4% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/13/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
4.3% |
0.4% |
4.4% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
1.4% |
0.1% |
1.5% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/13/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.9% |
0.0% |
1.1% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.4% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/12/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/12/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.0% |
2.5% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.8% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/12/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/12/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/11/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/11/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/11/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/11/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.6% |
1.5% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/10/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
1.7% |
4.0% |
1.7% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/10/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
1.2% |
2.2% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.5% |
1.0% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.3% |
0.7% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/10/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
1.8% |
4.8% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.6% |
1.8% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/10/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.8% |
1.7% |
1.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.6% |
0.9% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.7% |
1.4% |
0.8% |
0.6% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/09/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
2.0% |
3.4% |
2.0% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.5% |
0.8% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.7% |
1.2% |
0.7% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/09/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
8.9% |
6.8% |
5.2% |
1.3% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
2.0% |
1.9% |
1.1% |
1.0% |
0.4% |
1.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
4.3% |
3.5% |
2.5% |
1.0% |
0.3% |
1.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
2.3% |
1.1% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.0% |
2.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
1.7% |
2.7% |
1.7% |
1.4% |
0.7% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/09/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
6.0% |
7.1% |
6.4% |
0.6% |
0.2% |
1.8% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
6.2% |
4.6% |
3.1% |
2.9% |
0.9% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
6.1% |
5.4% |
4.2% |
2.1% |
0.6% |
0.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
9.1% |
4.4% |
3.1% |
3.1% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
3.3% |
4.8% |
3.1% |
2.7% |
1.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/09/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
12.3% |
4.6% |
1.9% |
1.3% |
1.0% |
0.7% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
34.1% |
25.3% |
23.0% |
23.0% |
8.8% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
26.8% |
18.3% |
15.9% |
15.7% |
6.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
51.7% |
29.3% |
29.3% |
29.3% |
6.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
16.5% |
21.2% |
16.7% |
16.7% |
11.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/08/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
9.1% |
17.2% |
8.9% |
2.2% |
0.7% |
3.2% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
33.4% |
26.9% |
24.6% |
24.6% |
9.0% |
32.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
25.3% |
23.6% |
19.3% |
17.1% |
6.2% |
22.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
54.0% |
33.0% |
33.0% |
33.0% |
7.6% |
52.7% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
12.8% |
20.8% |
16.1% |
16.1% |
10.4% |
12.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/08/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
10.2% |
23.5% |
11.8% |
4.8% |
1.1% |
13.1% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
38.3% |
37.6% |
34.7% |
34.7% |
16.4% |
30.1% |
7.9% |
4.7% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
28.9% |
32.8% |
27.1% |
24.7% |
11.3% |
24.4% |
5.5% |
3.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
59.1% |
42.1% |
42.1% |
42.1% |
12.3% |
43.6% |
9.4% |
7.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
17.5% |
33.0% |
27.4% |
27.4% |
20.6% |
16.6% |
6.5% |
2.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/08/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
8.2% |
17.4% |
10.0% |
3.8% |
0.4% |
4.7% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
42.0% |
47.6% |
38.5% |
38.5% |
23.5% |
30.7% |
8.5% |
9.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
30.7% |
37.5% |
29.0% |
26.9% |
15.7% |
22.0% |
5.7% |
6.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
65.7% |
55.7% |
46.3% |
46.3% |
22.4% |
43.4% |
10.8% |
15.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
18.2% |
39.5% |
30.7% |
30.7% |
24.5% |
17.9% |
6.2% |
3.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/08/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
9.5% |
18.5% |
4.2% |
3.0% |
1.0% |
9.6% |
1.4% |
1.5% |
0.2% |
1.3% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/07/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
21.0% |
37.3% |
22.2% |
3.6% |
4.7% |
6.4% |
0.8% |
1.7% |
0.3% |
1.4% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
34.7% |
54.7% |
41.7% |
40.8% |
27.1% |
21.3% |
7.0% |
7.7% |
1.8% |
1.8% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
30.1% |
48.9% |
35.1% |
28.4% |
19.6% |
16.3% |
4.9% |
5.6% |
1.2% |
1.7% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
49.2% |
58.4% |
41.9% |
40.2% |
18.6% |
25.4% |
8.8% |
8.6% |
1.7% |
1.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
20.1% |
51.0% |
41.5% |
41.5% |
35.6% |
17.2% |
5.2% |
6.7% |
1.8% |
2.5% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/07/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
19.1% |
28.7% |
27.4% |
11.3% |
4.2% |
18.8% |
2.0% |
2.8% |
0.3% |
2.6% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
30.7% |
52.2% |
37.3% |
34.5% |
23.7% |
25.9% |
9.5% |
10.9% |
3.2% |
4.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
26.8% |
44.3% |
33.9% |
26.7% |
17.2% |
23.5% |
7.0% |
8.2% |
2.2% |
3.5% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
41.9% |
55.3% |
37.9% |
32.4% |
15.0% |
30.0% |
12.0% |
14.3% |
4.0% |
3.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
19.5% |
49.0% |
36.6% |
36.6% |
32.5% |
21.8% |
7.0% |
7.5% |
2.4% |
4.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/07/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
14.1% |
28.4% |
19.0% |
9.8% |
6.2% |
10.7% |
2.4% |
1.8% |
0.5% |
1.3% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
35.0% |
58.1% |
43.4% |
41.6% |
28.3% |
34.5% |
15.2% |
19.2% |
7.3% |
11.4% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
28.0% |
48.1% |
35.2% |
31.0% |
20.9% |
26.5% |
10.9% |
13.4% |
5.0% |
8.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
47.3% |
60.2% |
44.2% |
40.7% |
17.2% |
35.3% |
17.2% |
27.5% |
9.9% |
14.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
22.6% |
56.0% |
42.5% |
42.5% |
39.3% |
33.7% |
13.2% |
10.9% |
4.6% |
8.6% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/07/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
36.1% |
44.3% |
43.8% |
22.2% |
30.0% |
31.6% |
13.5% |
20.4% |
5.5% |
6.3% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
43.5% |
72.0% |
59.3% |
55.9% |
41.3% |
48.1% |
26.5% |
32.7% |
17.3% |
18.4% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
41.0% |
62.7% |
54.1% |
44.6% |
37.5% |
42.6% |
22.1% |
28.5% |
13.3% |
14.3% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
50.5% |
71.2% |
55.2% |
48.4% |
22.5% |
42.4% |
24.1% |
42.8% |
21.9% |
20.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
36.4% |
72.8% |
63.4% |
63.4% |
60.1% |
53.8% |
28.9% |
22.6% |
12.7% |
16.5% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/06/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
14.6% |
24.4% |
8.9% |
8.5% |
6.3% |
6.8% |
3.3% |
14.9% |
3.7% |
4.6% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
12.9% |
55.9% |
35.5% |
31.7% |
22.3% |
41.1% |
21.2% |
35.3% |
19.2% |
29.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
13.4% |
45.3% |
26.6% |
23.9% |
16.9% |
29.6% |
15.2% |
28.4% |
14.0% |
20.9% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
11.8% |
50.6% |
25.6% |
17.9% |
5.0% |
32.5% |
16.9% |
45.4% |
24.6% |
35.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
14.0% |
61.1% |
45.5% |
45.5% |
39.6% |
49.7% |
25.5% |
25.1% |
13.8% |
22.3% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/06/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
7.6% |
15.6% |
2.5% |
3.8% |
1.1% |
8.0% |
2.0% |
17.8% |
7.5% |
10.7% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
9.6% |
52.7% |
30.9% |
26.6% |
19.1% |
41.3% |
21.8% |
36.9% |
20.2% |
41.6% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
8.9% |
40.3% |
21.4% |
19.0% |
13.1% |
30.1% |
15.1% |
30.5% |
16.0% |
31.3% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
9.0% |
47.5% |
23.1% |
14.6% |
3.4% |
32.1% |
17.4% |
48.7% |
25.1% |
53.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
10.3% |
58.0% |
38.7% |
38.7% |
34.9% |
50.4% |
26.1% |
25.1% |
15.4% |
29.4% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Fung-wong at 11/06/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
3.6% |
5.0% |
5.7% |
1.7% |
2.5% |
9.4% |
6.3% |
19.7% |
8.8% |
12.7% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
15.9% |
71.2% |
55.5% |
42.8% |
39.5% |
69.3% |
46.2% |
75.5% |
66.7% |
61.4% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
11.7% |
49.1% |
38.9% |
29.1% |
27.1% |
49.3% |
32.9% |
56.9% |
47.4% |
45.1% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
15.7% |
67.7% |
49.8% |
24.5% |
17.8% |
65.4% |
42.0% |
94.9% |
86.1% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
16.0% |
74.7% |
61.2% |
61.2% |
61.2% |
73.3% |
50.4% |
56.1% |
47.3% |
60.2% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Thirtytwo at 11/06/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
20.2% |
42.1% |
21.6% |
25.6% |
19.4% |
34.1% |
18.8% |
30.2% |
15.0% |
21.3% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
13.3% |
70.1% |
51.1% |
39.7% |
39.7% |
65.2% |
43.0% |
66.7% |
51.2% |
57.2% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
15.6% |
60.7% |
41.2% |
35.0% |
32.9% |
54.8% |
34.9% |
54.5% |
39.1% |
45.2% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
13.8% |
66.6% |
44.5% |
21.8% |
21.8% |
57.7% |
35.4% |
81.2% |
58.9% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
12.8% |
73.7% |
57.7% |
57.7% |
57.7% |
72.6% |
50.6% |
52.1% |
43.5% |
51.8% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Thirtytwo at 11/05/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
20.9% |
44.1% |
32.6% |
5.4% |
8.1% |
17.1% |
12.0% |
35.4% |
25.6% |
16.6% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
2.9% |
47.6% |
23.1% |
17.6% |
14.5% |
50.3% |
29.6% |
44.6% |
31.3% |
60.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
8.9% |
46.4% |
26.2% |
13.5% |
12.3% |
39.2% |
23.7% |
41.5% |
29.4% |
45.6% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
1.8% |
40.0% |
14.3% |
3.4% |
2.4% |
35.6% |
19.1% |
42.0% |
25.4% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
4.0% |
55.2% |
31.9% |
31.7% |
26.6% |
65.0% |
40.1% |
47.1% |
37.2% |
57.7% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Thirtytwo at 11/05/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
3.4% |
35.8% |
38.4% |
16.3% |
5.0% |
22.5% |
7.5% |
39.8% |
12.4% |
11.9% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
2.3% |
32.6% |
13.8% |
8.9% |
8.9% |
41.2% |
20.1% |
47.9% |
32.4% |
56.3% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
2.6% |
33.6% |
22.0% |
11.4% |
7.6% |
34.9% |
15.9% |
45.1% |
25.7% |
41.5% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
1.8% |
26.9% |
11.3% |
3.1% |
3.1% |
35.9% |
19.8% |
57.0% |
37.0% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
2.8% |
38.3% |
16.3% |
14.8% |
14.8% |
46.5% |
20.5% |
38.8% |
27.8% |
50.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Thirtytwo at 11/05/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
5.9% |
15.5% |
10.8% |
1.1% |
2.6% |
7.3% |
4.8% |
16.9% |
6.6% |
18.8% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
2.7% |
33.4% |
15.1% |
9.6% |
9.6% |
42.0% |
21.3% |
54.5% |
39.9% |
60.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
3.7% |
27.4% |
13.6% |
6.8% |
7.3% |
30.3% |
15.8% |
41.9% |
28.8% |
46.2% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
1.9% |
26.2% |
12.6% |
2.4% |
2.4% |
36.8% |
22.3% |
67.5% |
49.6% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
3.5% |
40.6% |
17.5% |
16.9% |
16.9% |
47.1% |
20.3% |
41.5% |
30.3% |
57.3% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Thirtytwo at 11/05/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
5.0% |
9.4% |
2.0% |
0.3% |
1.2% |
1.3% |
0.7% |
27.2% |
2.6% |
41.8% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
3.2% |
43.1% |
21.9% |
15.9% |
15.9% |
48.8% |
27.4% |
74.9% |
66.2% |
66.4% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
3.7% |
31.9% |
15.2% |
10.7% |
11.0% |
32.9% |
18.4% |
58.9% |
45.0% |
58.2% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
2.1% |
35.2% |
17.0% |
5.3% |
5.3% |
42.2% |
26.5% |
94.5% |
88.0% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
4.2% |
51.1% |
26.7% |
26.5% |
26.5% |
55.4% |
28.2% |
55.2% |
44.5% |
70.2% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Thirtytwo at 11/04/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
1.9% |
26.3% |
2.8% |
5.8% |
0.5% |
12.5% |
6.5% |
10.4% |
8.1% |
33.2% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
3.8% |
38.1% |
18.5% |
13.4% |
12.8% |
42.3% |
22.4% |
41.2% |
29.9% |
60.8% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
3.1% |
34.1% |
13.2% |
10.8% |
8.7% |
32.3% |
17.0% |
30.9% |
22.6% |
51.6% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
3.0% |
30.3% |
14.3% |
5.5% |
5.5% |
32.1% |
18.7% |
42.8% |
26.8% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
4.5% |
45.8% |
22.6% |
21.3% |
20.1% |
52.5% |
26.0% |
39.6% |
33.0% |
59.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Thirtytwo at 11/04/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
5.0% |
34.1% |
25.4% |
1.8% |
5.4% |
9.6% |
9.8% |
37.8% |
10.1% |
57.6% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
6.3% |
48.9% |
26.6% |
19.7% |
19.7% |
56.9% |
38.8% |
70.3% |
62.8% |
70.5% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
5.8% |
43.9% |
26.1% |
13.7% |
14.9% |
41.1% |
29.1% |
59.4% |
45.2% |
66.2% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
5.9% |
42.6% |
22.7% |
9.0% |
9.0% |
44.5% |
30.7% |
85.6% |
72.2% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
6.7% |
55.1% |
30.4% |
30.4% |
30.4% |
69.4% |
46.9% |
54.9% |
53.4% |
78.4% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Thirtytwo at 11/04/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
7.6% |
23.7% |
11.9% |
1.5% |
3.0% |
12.2% |
3.5% |
21.6% |
5.8% |
41.1% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
4.3% |
50.5% |
27.8% |
22.2% |
22.2% |
62.1% |
44.4% |
99.2% |
85.6% |
77.6% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
5.3% |
41.6% |
22.5% |
15.2% |
15.7% |
45.4% |
30.8% |
73.3% |
59.0% |
65.3% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
2.6% |
40.4% |
19.3% |
9.6% |
9.6% |
47.6% |
32.2% |
99.6% |
98.8% |
62.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
6.0% |
60.7% |
36.3% |
34.8% |
34.8% |
76.5% |
56.7% |
98.8% |
72.4% |
92.5% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
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