Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current One intensity image current One RI diff image

 


Arthur at 06/18/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 113 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Arthur at 06/17/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 2.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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One at 06/17/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 1.3% 6.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.2% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.6% 3.2% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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One at 06/17/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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One at 06/17/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 124 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 8.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.7% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.4% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.1% SHIPS-RII 1.2% 7.2% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 4.3% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


One at 06/16/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 128 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 1.1% 4.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 4.0% 3.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.6% 2.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 1.2% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 10.0% 7.3% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 3.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 2.4% Logistic Regression 1.6% 1.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


One at 06/16/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.2% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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