Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Two intensity image current Two RI diff image

 


Two at 07/24/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bertha at 07/23/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% N/A SHIPS-RII 1.2% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bertha at 07/23/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 171 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 3.7% 3.3% 1.2% 0.1% 2.9% 2.6% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 2.8% 2.4% 0.9% 0.0% 2.1% 2.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 1.2% 7.4% 6.4% 3.0% 0.0% 8.0% 7.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% Logistic Regression 2.8% 3.7% 3.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bertha at 07/23/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 171 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 3.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 6.7% 6.4% 2.2% 0.2% 3.7% 3.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 5.1% 4.8% 1.6% 0.1% 2.9% 2.5% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 10.8% 10.1% 4.8% 0.0% 8.9% 8.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 1.6% Logistic Regression 5.0% 9.2% 8.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.1% 0.9% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Bertha at 07/22/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 3.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bertha at 07/22/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 170 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bertha at 07/22/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bertha at 07/22/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.7% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 6.8% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bertha at 07/21/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 3.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 2.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 8.2% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bertha at 07/21/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 166 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 3.3% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 2.7% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 2.3% 8.9% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% Logistic Regression 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Bertha at 07/21/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.6% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 2.3% 8.8% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 07/21/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 07/20/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 1.9% 2.6% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.8% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 1.1% 6.7% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 07/20/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 169 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 1.1% 1.7% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 3.7% 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 3.1% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 8.2% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% Logistic Regression 1.4% 2.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 07/20/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 165 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 6.9% 4.8% 3.8% 1.9% 3.3% 2.2% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 4.6% 3.5% 1.7% 0.4% 0.5% 1.3% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 1.5% 10.2% 7.6% 7.5% 3.4% 7.5% 5.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% Logistic Regression 3.3% 9.8% 6.6% 3.7% 2.3% 2.3% 1.5% 0.8%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 07/20/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 5.1% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 2.3% 2.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 7.3% 4.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 2.4% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 6.7% 4.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 2.3% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 11.3% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 3.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 1.3% Logistic Regression 2.7% 10.1% 6.6% 2.5% 1.2% 2.3% 1.7% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 07/19/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 5.6% 3.8% 1.9% 0.5% 5.6% 3.6% 7.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 10.7% 6.4% 4.3% 0.9% 2.2% 3.8% 0.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 9.4% 5.8% 3.7% 0.8% 3.0% 3.7% 2.3% SHIPS-RII 1.4% 13.0% 9.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 3.3% 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% 2.8% 1.8% 3.9% Logistic Regression 3.6% 17.1% 10.0% 4.5% 2.8% 6.7% 4.2% 1.3%
Bayesian 0.4% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 07/19/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 177 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 3.5% 2.4% 0.9% 0.0% 3.3% 4.3% 6.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 7.7% 4.7% 0.8% 0.4% 1.3% 3.8% 0.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 6.6% 4.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1.7% 3.9% 2.1% SHIPS-RII 1.3% 12.3% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 2.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 1.6% 2.1% 3.4% Logistic Regression 2.0% 10.1% 5.3% 2.4% 1.2% 3.8% 3.8% 1.7%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------