Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current cristobal intensity image current cristobal RI diff image

 


Cristobal at 08/13/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 53 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS Logistic Regression 1.0% 1.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Cristobal at 08/13/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 51 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Cristobal at 08/13/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 68 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Cristobal at 08/12/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 82 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% 2.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 1.1% Logistic Regression 1.0% 1.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% N/A
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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