Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Five intensity image current Five RI diff image

 


Edouard at 09/03/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 170 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 3.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Edouard at 09/02/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 4.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.6% 3.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.6% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Edouard at 09/02/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 2.4% 1.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 3.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 11.7% 9.3% 6.8% 3.9% 9.0% 1.6% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 9.3% 7.2% 5.3% 2.9% 6.9% 1.2% N/A SHIPS-RII 3.8% 17.7% 14.5% 10.5% 6.1% 13.2% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 5.7% 16.5% 13.2% 9.8% 5.6% 13.9% 4.7% N/A
Bayesian 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Edouard at 09/01/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.1% 5.7% 3.0% 2.6% 1.1% 4.1% 2.2% 6.2% SHIPS Consensus 7.7% 22.0% 15.6% 11.9% 5.5% 14.5% 4.4% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 17.9% 12.4% 9.5% 4.4% 11.9% 3.8% N/A SHIPS-RII 6.5% 28.9% 19.0% 18.0% 7.3% 15.5% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 2.8% 1.5% 1.3% 0.5% 2.0% 1.1% 3.1% Logistic Regression 12.6% 30.8% 25.9% 17.2% 9.2% 27.7% 13.1% N/A
Bayesian 3.9% 6.3% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Edouard at 09/01/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 179 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 3.2% 1.2% 1.6% 0.1% 0.8% 1.1% 3.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 15.1% 11.0% 8.3% 4.4% 7.7% 2.4% 0.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 12.1% 8.5% 6.6% 3.3% 6.0% 2.1% 1.0% SHIPS-RII 2.4% 17.1% 11.1% 11.1% 6.1% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 1.6% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% 1.6% Logistic Regression 7.5% 26.5% 21.5% 13.7% 7.1% 10.4% 7.3% 0.8%
Bayesian 0.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Edouard at 09/01/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 170 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.3% 3.4% 3.1% 1.5% 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 4.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 13.5% 9.3% 6.0% 3.0% 6.7% 2.6% 0.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 10.9% 7.7% 4.9% 2.3% 5.4% 2.1% 1.5% SHIPS-RII 2.1% 16.1% 10.9% 10.2% 5.8% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 1.7% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 2.1% Logistic Regression 4.8% 22.7% 16.7% 7.9% 3.1% 7.5% 7.7% 2.0%
Bayesian 1.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Edouard at 09/01/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 3.2% 2.0% 2.7% 0.3% 1.1% 0.4% 14.2% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 22.1% 17.7% 10.7% 5.4% 11.7% 3.1% 0.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 17.3% 13.7% 8.7% 4.1% 9.0% 2.4% 3.9% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 19.2% 12.6% 12.0% 7.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 1.6% 1.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 7.1% Logistic Regression 7.5% 45.0% 39.8% 20.0% 9.3% 20.9% 9.3% 1.7%
Bayesian 0.4% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Five at 08/31/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 162 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.3% 6.3% 6.5% 2.5% 0.9% 6.0% 1.8% 13.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 22.1% 16.5% 11.2% 6.7% 16.3% 5.1% 1.7%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 18.1% 14.0% 9.0% 5.2% 13.7% 4.2% 4.6% SHIPS-RII 2.9% 18.8% 11.9% 11.5% 6.6% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 3.6% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4% 3.0% 0.9% 6.7% Logistic Regression 8.0% 44.6% 37.1% 22.1% 13.5% 35.0% 15.3% 5.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Five at 08/31/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 169 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 23.0% 16.1% 12.3% 7.6% 20.2% 14.3% 4.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 4.4% 21.3% 15.3% 10.0% 6.6% 14.4% 16.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 10.2% 39.7% 31.1% 26.6% 16.3% 45.7% 26.2% 12.6%
Bayesian 1.4% 8.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS
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