Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Two intensity image current Two RI diff image

 


Moke at 08/25/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 3.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Moke at 08/25/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 1.4% 0.5% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 5.0% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 4.1% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% N/A SHIPS-RII 6.9% 13.6% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Moke at 08/24/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 4.2% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 3.3% N/A SHIPS-RII 0.0% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.2% 12.4% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Moke at 08/24/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 5.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Moke at 08/24/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 129 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 5.4% 4.3% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.5% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 12.9% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Moke at 08/24/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 1.5% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 6.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 4.9% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 4.0% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.7% 14.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Moke at 08/23/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.2% 3.1% 2.1% 2.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 5.2% 4.6% 4.1% 0.0% 6.0% 5.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.3% 3.6% 3.1% 0.0% 5.2% 4.4% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 6.5% 14.6% 13.4% 12.3% 0.0% 17.9% 15.5% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Moke at 08/23/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.5% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 5.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 3.9% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 15.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Moke at 08/23/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 132 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Moke at 08/23/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 127 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.7% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 6.8% 5.6% 4.4% 3.6% 6.5% 6.0% 4.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.1% 4.2% 3.3% 2.6% 4.9% 4.9% 3.5% SHIPS-RII 9.6% 19.8% 16.5% 13.1% 10.7% 19.3% 17.7% 12.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Moke at 08/22/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 126 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 3.9% 1.5% 0.4% 0.4% 2.1% 1.5% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 8.4% 6.2% 5.0% 3.7% 7.0% 6.2% 4.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 7.3% 5.0% 3.8% 2.8% 5.7% 5.0% 4.3% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 20.7% 17.0% 14.0% 10.8% 20.0% 17.9% 14.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.6% 2.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.2% 1.0% 0.7% 1.3% Logistic Regression 1.5% 3.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Moke at 08/22/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 7.1% 5.3% 0.9% 0.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.5% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 8.4% 6.1% 4.8% 3.5% 6.5% 5.9% 5.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 8.1% 5.9% 3.8% 2.7% 5.5% 5.1% 4.4% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 20.9% 16.7% 13.3% 10.1% 18.8% 17.2% 14.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 4.5% 3.1% 0.9% 0.3% 1.9% 1.3% 1.2% Logistic Regression 1.7% 3.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Moke at 08/22/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 1.5% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 5.5% 4.6% 3.9% 3.0% 5.5% 4.9% 4.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 4.5% 3.5% 2.9% 2.2% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 14.9% 13.2% 11.4% 8.8% 16.4% 14.8% 13.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Moke at 08/22/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 3.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.2% 2.0% 2.3% 4.7% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 5.7% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 5.4% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 5.1% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% 4.6% 1.2% SHIPS-RII 8.9% 15.4% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 16.1% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 3.6% 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 1.5% 1.6% 2.3% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Moke at 08/21/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 2.0% 4.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 5.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 4.2% 1.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 14.9% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 2.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 1.2% 1.5% 2.3% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 08/21/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 1.8% 4.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 5.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 4.1% 1.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 14.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.4% 2.3% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 08/21/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.7% 16.4% 10.8% 0.9% 1.0% 4.2% 2.1% 4.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 7.4% 4.8% 3.8% 0.0% 5.5% 5.1% 5.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 9.6% 6.3% 3.0% 0.2% 5.1% 4.3% 5.2% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 16.9% 13.3% 10.8% 0.0% 16.0% 15.1% 15.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 9.7% 5.9% 0.4% 0.5% 2.6% 1.5% 2.4% Logistic Regression 1.2% 4.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8%
Bayesian 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 08/21/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 153 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.3% 16.9% 6.9% 2.0% 0.8% 4.1% 7.7% 8.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.8% 10.3% 6.4% 4.9% 0.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 11.8% 6.5% 4.1% 0.2% 5.7% 6.1% 6.2% SHIPS-RII 9.0% 19.8% 15.8% 12.7% 0.0% 17.8% 16.1% 15.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 9.4% 3.9% 1.0% 0.4% 2.5% 4.3% 4.1% Logistic Regression 2.2% 9.0% 3.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 1.1%
Bayesian 0.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 08/20/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 8.2% 22.6% 8.3% 3.4% 1.4% 15.6% 12.8% 8.4% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 8.9% 6.2% 4.9% 0.1% 6.2% 5.5% 5.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 12.3% 6.7% 4.5% 0.3% 8.5% 7.3% 6.2% SHIPS-RII 8.9% 18.7% 15.6% 13.3% 0.0% 18.0% 16.2% 15.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.1% 13.3% 5.1% 1.7% 0.7% 8.3% 6.9% 4.7% Logistic Regression 1.8% 7.5% 3.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6%
Bayesian 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
DTOPS 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Two at 08/20/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 9.3% 6.9% 5.3% 0.1% 6.9% 6.0% 5.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 10.6% 21.4% 18.1% 14.9% 0.0% 20.3% 17.7% 14.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 1.1% 5.1% 2.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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