Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Amanda at 06/08/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 105 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% 1.2% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/07/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 105 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/07/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 113 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 2.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 6.8% 4.8% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 5.7% 3.6% 2.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% SHIPS-RII 5.6% 13.2% 11.5% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 6.4% 2.8% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 2.8% Bayesian 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/07/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 107 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 4.8% 3.9% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 3.9% 3.1% 2.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 12.9% 11.3% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.7% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/07/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 106 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/06/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/06/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 3.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.8% 0.3% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.8% 3.1% 2.9% 2.1% 4.7% 4.4% 0.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 4.1% 2.7% 2.3% 1.7% 4.1% 3.5% 0.6% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 10.3% 9.0% 8.5% 6.3% 14.0% 13.2% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/06/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 97 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 5.4% 3.9% 3.2% 2.4% 5.1% 4.9% 5.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 4.4% 3.0% 2.4% 1.7% 4.0% 3.9% 4.5% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 13.5% 10.7% 9.5% 6.9% 15.3% 14.7% 14.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.9% Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/06/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 95 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 4.1% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 3.1% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 12.4% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/05/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 92 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 4.2% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% 3.4% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 12.5% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/05/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 88 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 5.1% 3.8% 3.2% 2.4% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 4.0% 3.0% 2.4% 1.7% 3.8% 3.5% 3.4% SHIPS-RII 6.1% 14.0% 11.0% 9.5% 7.0% 14.2% 13.7% 13.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/05/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 81 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.6% 4.3% 3.5% 2.6% 5.0% 4.5% 4.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.3% 3.4% 2.6% 1.9% 3.8% 3.4% 3.2% SHIPS-RII 6.9% 15.1% 12.2% 10.5% 7.8% 15.0% 13.6% 12.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/05/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 90 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 1.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 2.6% 0.5% 1.4% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 6.5% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 5.4% 4.8% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.2% 3.9% 3.1% 2.3% 4.7% 3.7% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 8.4% 17.0% 13.7% 11.8% 8.6% 16.3% 14.3% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.7% Logistic Regression 0.6% 2.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/04/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 2.0% 0.4% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 5.5% 4.6% 3.9% 3.0% 5.4% 4.7% 3.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.1% 3.0% 2.5% 1.8% 4.0% 3.3% 3.5% SHIPS-RII 8.9% 16.0% 13.6% 11.6% 8.9% 16.1% 14.0% 11.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 0.7% 1.3% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/04/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 105 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.4% 4.0% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 4.8% 1.7% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.1% 4.0% 3.4% 2.6% 4.9% 4.4% 3.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 4.8% 3.4% 2.7% 2.0% 4.8% 3.7% 3.6% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 13.9% 11.6% 10.2% 7.7% 14.6% 13.2% 11.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.2% 2.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 2.4% 1.3% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/04/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 2.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.5% 2.6% 1.4% 3.7% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.1% 4.2% 3.6% 2.8% 5.1% 4.6% 3.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 4.3% 3.4% 2.8% 2.1% 4.4% 3.7% 3.8% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 14.6% 12.4% 10.6% 8.2% 15.3% 13.7% 11.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.8% 1.2% 1.8% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/04/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 109 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 3.0% 6.6% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 6.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 4.7% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% SHIPS-RII 7.8% 16.7% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 14.9% 12.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 2.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 2.0% 3.3% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Amanda at 06/03/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 3.8% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 12.3% 8.5% 6.0% 4.2% 6.9% 6.0% 5.3% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 9.2% 6.3% 4.4% 3.1% 5.1% 5.0% 4.9% SHIPS-RII 10.0% 21.1% 17.7% 14.9% 11.7% 19.9% 17.8% 14.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 3.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 1.9% Logistic Regression 4.5% 14.4% 7.2% 2.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% Bayesian 4.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 06/03/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 143 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 37.7% 16.4% 2.3% 2.4% 4.6% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 11.7% 21.9% 15.1% 10.0% 5.8% 9.7% 8.6% 6.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.7% 25.8% 15.4% 8.0% 4.9% 8.4% 6.4% 4.8% SHIPS-RII 12.6% 28.4% 21.2% 17.5% 14.0% 25.8% 24.9% 16.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 26.3% 12.2% 2.6% 2.2% 4.3% 1.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 11.5% 31.7% 19.9% 10.5% 3.1% 2.4% 0.4% 2.9% Bayesian 11.0% 5.7% 4.2% 2.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 15.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 06/03/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.8% 21.9% 7.3% 2.8% 1.1% 10.7% 12.7% 20.1% SHIPS Consensus 6.8% 18.4% 12.6% 8.3% 0.3% 10.2% 9.8% 7.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 19.2% 11.2% 6.9% 0.5% 10.3% 10.5% 10.2% SHIPS-RII 11.9% 29.7% 21.6% 17.1% 0.0% 26.9% 27.7% 17.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 17.9% 6.1% 1.9% 1.0% 6.8% 7.8% 10.5% Logistic Regression 5.3% 22.4% 12.0% 6.3% 1.0% 3.6% 1.5% 3.3% Bayesian 3.3% 3.2% 4.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 14.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 06/03/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.5% 37.5% 7.2% 5.2% 1.3% 20.3% 7.0% 24.2% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 20.8% 13.3% 3.8% 1.1% 11.0% 14.0% 1.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 25.0% 11.7% 4.1% 1.1% 13.3% 12.2% 7.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 23.6% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 24.3% 37.4% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 25.2% 5.6% 3.1% 1.1% 12.1% 7.0% 13.1% Logistic Regression 6.5% 37.3% 18.9% 11.2% 3.3% 8.5% 4.5% 4.8% Bayesian 0.7% 1.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS 1.0% 13.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 7.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 06/02/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 150 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 11.2% 3.3% 0.5% 0.3% 8.5% 4.4% 21.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 20.0% 12.2% 2.8% 1.0% 11.3% 23.0% 3.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 17.7% 10.0% 2.1% 0.8% 10.6% 18.3% 8.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 31.7% 23.0% 0.0% 0.0% 27.4% 54.9% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 7.6% 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 4.7% 4.2% 12.3% Logistic Regression 4.5% 27.4% 13.0% 8.1% 3.0% 6.6% 13.9% 10.7% Bayesian 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------