Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Cristina at 06/11/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 163 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 11.2% 8.5% 2.9% 0.4% 4.1% 2.8% 11.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 11.4% 7.0% 5.2% 0.2% 9.6% 17.1% N/A AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 11.3% 7.3% 4.6% 0.2% 8.2% 13.5% N/A SHIPS-RII 8.7% 23.2% 17.7% 13.7% 0.0% 21.4% 27.1% N/A AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 6.1% 4.2% 1.4% 0.2% 2.0% 1.9% 5.5% Logistic Regression 0.7% 11.1% 3.2% 1.8% 0.5% 7.5% 24.1% N/A Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Cristina at 06/10/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.0% 35.1% 21.2% 12.3% 1.5% 3.0% 7.0% 15.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 17.4% 8.8% 6.3% 1.0% 11.5% 19.0% 26.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 21.7% 11.9% 7.8% 1.1% 9.4% 16.0% 24.0% SHIPS-RII 8.1% 22.7% 16.8% 13.3% 0.0% 20.6% 24.7% 53.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.5% 17.5% 10.6% 6.1% 0.7% 1.5% 3.5% 7.7% Logistic Regression 2.7% 28.6% 9.4% 5.6% 3.0% 13.9% 32.2% 27.6% Bayesian 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Cristina at 06/10/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.9% 26.7% 14.1% 7.9% 1.1% 3.6% 2.5% 7.8% SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 17.0% 8.7% 6.1% 4.1% 11.2% 18.5% 27.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 19.4% 10.0% 6.5% 3.3% 9.3% 14.5% 22.8% SHIPS-RII 9.9% 23.2% 17.6% 14.1% 10.8% 21.7% 26.6% 54.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.9% 13.3% 7.0% 3.9% 0.5% 1.8% 1.2% 3.9% Logistic Regression 3.6% 24.2% 7.7% 4.2% 1.5% 11.3% 27.7% 28.8% Bayesian 0.2% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 1.2% 0.5% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Cristina at 06/10/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.0% 55.0% 18.6% 12.0% 4.6% 14.1% 17.5% 11.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 14.5% 7.2% 5.1% 3.7% 8.5% 13.4% 18.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 24.6% 10.0% 6.8% 3.8% 9.8% 14.4% 16.9% SHIPS-RII 8.3% 21.1% 16.0% 12.8% 9.7% 19.5% 20.9% 29.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.0% 28.0% 9.8% 6.0% 2.3% 7.0% 8.7% 5.5% Logistic Regression 2.1% 19.1% 5.1% 2.5% 1.2% 5.7% 18.6% 27.3% Bayesian 0.1% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Cristina at 06/09/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 165 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.7% 35.4% 6.0% 1.5% 0.4% 8.9% 5.5% 5.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 8.2% 5.5% 4.4% 3.2% 7.2% 8.9% 15.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 15.0% 5.6% 3.6% 2.5% 7.6% 8.0% 12.9% SHIPS-RII 6.7% 18.6% 14.6% 12.5% 9.3% 19.4% 19.0% 34.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.3% 18.7% 3.5% 0.7% 0.2% 4.4% 2.7% 2.5% Logistic Regression 0.5% 6.0% 1.9% 0.7% 0.4% 2.2% 7.5% 12.4% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Cristina at 06/09/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 166 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 6.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 6.0% 4.2% 3.6% 2.6% 6.1% 7.2% 9.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 6.0% 3.3% 2.7% 1.9% 4.9% 5.6% 7.7% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 16.0% 12.1% 10.5% 7.7% 17.8% 17.9% 21.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.9% 3.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 3.7% 7.3% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Cristina at 06/09/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 167 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.9% 2.4% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Cristina at 06/09/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 154 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 5.5% 0.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 4.1% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.1% 16.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 2.1% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Cristina at 06/08/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 145 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 6.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 5.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 3.1% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Cristina at 06/08/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 162 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 5.5% Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------