Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Four intensity image current Four RI diff image

 


Douglas at 07/03/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 52 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Douglas at 07/03/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 59 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.2% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Douglas at 07/02/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 68 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 3.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 2.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.9% 10.4% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Douglas at 07/02/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 76 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.7% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 2.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.4% 10.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Douglas at 07/02/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 73 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 5.1% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 3.9% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.4% 14.0% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Douglas at 07/02/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 73 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 5.8% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 4.5% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.7% 15.1% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Douglas at 07/01/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 82 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 7.3% 5.2% 3.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 6.1% 4.2% 2.7% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 16.9% 12.4% 9.9% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 2.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 4.9% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Four at 07/01/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 103 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.8% 20.5% 8.6% 2.8% 1.1% 11.6% 3.3% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 10.6% 15.5% 10.8% 6.4% 0.1% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.6% 16.7% 10.2% 5.5% 0.3% 6.9% 0.8% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.6% 18.7% 14.0% 11.3% 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 11.2% 4.8% 1.4% 0.5% 5.8% 1.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 11.7% 26.5% 17.2% 7.4% 0.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 10.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Four at 07/01/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 98 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.1% 18.8% 4.4% 2.2% 0.8% 6.0% 0.5% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 11.1% 7.2% 4.8% 0.1% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 13.0% 6.4% 4.1% 0.2% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.3% 18.5% 14.3% 11.6% 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 11.4% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 3.5% 0.7% 0.1% Logistic Regression 3.3% 14.4% 6.8% 2.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
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