Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Five intensity image current Five RI diff image

 


Elida at 07/20/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/20/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/20/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 0 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/19/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 11 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 2.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.1% 6.1% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/19/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 17 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 3.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 2.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 8.9% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/19/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 28 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 8.9% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/19/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 32 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 4.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 3.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 12.3% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/18/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 59 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 4.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 3.6% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.9% 14.4% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/18/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 64 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 5.3% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 4.0% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 15.5% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/18/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 86 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 6.5% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 4.9% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.3% 17.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/18/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 109 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 9.7% 6.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 7.4% 5.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.1% 20.8% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.6% 8.2% 2.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/17/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 114 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 20.5% 12.0% 7.9% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.5% 15.7% 9.2% 6.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.3% 44.5% 30.1% 20.3% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.5% 7.1% 3.9% 2.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Logistic Regression 10.0% 17.0% 5.8% 3.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 8.0% 13.0% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/17/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.0% 11.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 14.2% 8.9% 6.6% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 13.5% 7.1% 5.1% 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.3% 34.1% 24.1% 18.6% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.0% 9.7% 3.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.6% 8.6% 2.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 4.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/17/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 7.5% 4.2% 3.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 17.7% 11.7% 8.4% 5.1% 8.2% 5.6% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 15.1% 9.8% 7.0% 4.2% 6.3% 4.2% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.8% 40.9% 31.9% 23.0% 15.1% 23.9% 16.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.3% 16.7% 10.6% 7.0% 5.8% 4.3% 1.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.9% 11.6% 3.0% 2.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 10.0% 26.0% 17.0% 11.0% 10.0% 8.0% 2.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Elida at 07/16/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.2% 27.4% 6.1% 2.9% 3.3% 7.9% 3.3% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.1% 35.2% 15.0% 8.4% 5.6% 20.4% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 5.0% 43.0% 24.0% 14.0% 8.0% 33.0% 18.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/16/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.4% 39.3% 14.1% 8.9% 8.5% 16.0% 3.6% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.2% 56.6% 35.5% 19.9% 13.7% 20.5% 10.8% 0.1% Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 26.0% 74.0% 57.0% 31.0% 19.0% 25.0% 18.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/16/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.5% 49.0% 18.7% 13.9% 10.8% 26.1% 3.9% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 19.7% 53.5% 30.8% 24.4% 21.4% 27.0% 12.9% 0.3% Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 27.0% 58.0% 43.0% 35.0% 32.0% 28.0% 22.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/16/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.2% 40.4% 14.4% 5.6% 3.5% 11.5% 2.4% 1.5% SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 9.6% 46.7% 24.2% 8.8% 5.7% 12.2% 11.7% 3.2% Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 15.0% 53.0% 34.0% 12.0% 8.0% 13.0% 21.0% 5.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/15/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 154 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 7.1% 37.8% 17.5% 9.7% 5.3% 18.3% 7.5% 1.6% SHIPS Consensus 28.5% 48.8% 31.9% 25.4% 8.6% 17.8% 20.3% 5.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 23.1% 46.0% 28.3% 21.5% 7.7% 17.9% 17.1% 4.4% SHIPS-RII 23.4% 62.5% 44.5% 35.4% 20.7% 44.9% 60.5% 16.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 14.5% 36.4% 16.2% 8.8% 6.1% 20.1% 21.7% 2.3% Logistic Regression 33.0% 64.5% 38.9% 32.4% 4.6% 6.8% 0.4% 0.1%
Bayesian 29.0% 19.3% 12.3% 8.5% 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 22.0% 35.0% 15.0% 8.0% 7.0% 22.0% 36.0% 3.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Elida at 07/15/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.5% 22.2% 9.1% 6.9% 4.2% 18.8% 22.1% 4.0% SHIPS Consensus 8.6% 22.1% 15.0% 11.8% 5.8% 11.9% 15.3% 6.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.3% 22.1% 13.5% 10.5% 5.4% 13.6% 17.0% 6.2% SHIPS-RII 12.9% 34.2% 29.5% 25.8% 16.1% 31.2% 44.5% 20.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 6.2% 31.1% 14.6% 9.0% 1.3% 4.2% 0.9% 0.2%
Bayesian 6.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Elida at 07/15/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.6% 14.8% 4.3% 4.2% 1.6% 6.7% 10.7% 30.1% SHIPS Consensus 6.9% 25.7% 16.3% 12.2% 5.8% 15.5% 15.9% 13.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 19.8% 10.6% 8.1% 0.8% 11.2% 10.9% 17.7% SHIPS-RII 11.6% 29.2% 25.9% 22.2% 15.1% 30.4% 40.5% 38.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 18.9% 6.1% 2.6% 1.3% 5.8% 14.3% 16.0% Logistic Regression 7.3% 41.8% 20.5% 13.7% 2.2% 15.1% 6.7% 0.7%
Bayesian 1.6% 6.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2%
DTOPS 2.0% 41.0% 22.0% 4.0% 3.0% 11.0% 31.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Five at 07/15/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 163 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.8% 46.6% 24.9% 15.1% 5.8% 23.6% 38.9% 35.5% SHIPS Consensus 10.1% 47.5% 29.8% 20.7% 2.9% 31.7% 27.9% 17.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.0% 47.2% 28.5% 19.3% 3.6% 29.6% 30.7% 21.7% SHIPS-RII 10.9% 46.9% 31.1% 20.2% 0.0% 43.9% 66.3% 49.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.4% 32.8% 14.9% 8.0% 3.4% 16.3% 32.4% 26.2% Logistic Regression 18.3% 71.4% 45.2% 36.5% 8.4% 48.0% 15.9% 2.1%
Bayesian 1.2% 24.1% 13.1% 5.5% 0.4% 3.1% 1.7% 0.5%
DTOPS 1.0% 19.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 9.0% 26.0% 17.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Five at 07/14/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.7% 39.6% 15.0% 10.4% 4.4% 17.8% 30.5% 37.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 31.5% 17.4% 11.4% 1.1% 17.4% 22.2% 17.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.4% 33.5% 16.7% 11.1% 1.9% 17.5% 24.3% 22.3% SHIPS-RII 10.0% 31.7% 21.0% 17.4% 0.0% 34.1% 61.2% 51.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.8% 29.8% 11.5% 5.7% 2.7% 10.9% 23.7% 29.5% Logistic Regression 9.7% 46.2% 23.7% 14.5% 2.9% 16.2% 4.8% 0.9%
Bayesian 1.3% 16.7% 7.3% 2.2% 0.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 20.0% 8.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 17.0% 22.0%
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