Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Genevieve at 08/01/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 58 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 4.6% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 3.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 13.6% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 08/01/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 26 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 5.1% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 3.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.1% 15.2% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/31/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 37 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 5.8% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 4.3% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.5% 17.4% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/31/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 30 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 5.6% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 4.2% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.5% 16.8% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/31/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 35 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 6.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 4.8% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.0% 19.4% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/31/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 40 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 6.1% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 4.5% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.6% 18.1% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/30/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 36 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 5.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 4.4% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.4% 17.6% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/30/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 49 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 4.9% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 3.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.5% 14.5% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/30/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 70 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 5.1% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.8% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.2% 15.1% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/30/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 78 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.5% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 3.4% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 13.2% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/29/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 81 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/29/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 99 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 2.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 1.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 1.9% 6.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/29/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 102 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.2% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/29/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 110 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/28/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 113 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.8% 2.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.4% 2.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.3% 8.3% 7.8% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/28/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 139 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 2.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 8.2% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/28/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.6% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/28/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/27/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/27/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/27/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.7% 2.6% 1.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/27/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 10.7% 6.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.8% 5.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.8% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 10.3% 3.2% 1.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 7.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/26/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 157 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.3% 3.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 28.9% 10.5% 7.2% 5.9% 4.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 27.4% 8.6% 5.8% 4.5% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 42.4% 21.8% 18.8% 15.9% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 24.6% 12.5% 8.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 13.7% 5.4% 2.6% 1.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian 30.6% 4.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 26.0% 22.0% 15.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/26/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.4% 10.3% 5.3% 1.4% 2.2% 9.9% 1.2% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 53.8% 33.8% 22.5% 16.6% 10.1% 8.7% 0.4% 0.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 38.1% 31.6% 21.8% 15.2% 8.5% 9.2% 0.5% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 62.0% 37.1% 30.1% 23.6% 15.1% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 40.2% 38.1% 31.6% 28.7% 14.1% 16.4% 0.6% 0.2% Logistic Regression 49.7% 39.7% 23.1% 17.8% 13.8% 5.9% 1.2% 0.4% Bayesian 49.7% 24.7% 14.2% 8.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 76.0% 46.0% 43.0% 40.0% 15.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/26/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 30.6% 34.8% 27.2% 19.7% 16.7% 35.6% 4.7% 1.9% SHIPS Consensus 62.7% 56.2% 50.1% 44.6% 23.0% 15.8% 7.8% 4.5% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 52.3% 55.7% 48.1% 41.6% 26.4% 23.8% 7.3% 4.0% SHIPS-RII 75.5% 70.9% 63.9% 60.1% 45.5% 33.7% 18.2% 11.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 54.8% 62.9% 60.6% 58.3% 53.8% 60.3% 27.8% 1.4% Logistic Regression 32.1% 35.4% 20.2% 12.9% 11.3% 8.2% 4.9% 1.8% Bayesian 80.5% 62.4% 66.4% 60.8% 12.1% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 83.0% 91.0% 95.0% 97.0% 91.0% 80.0% 28.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/26/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 161 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 33.0% 51.6% 31.9% 27.8% 18.2% 54.6% 21.5% 12.9% SHIPS Consensus 55.7% 74.8% 67.0% 60.7% 45.0% 44.3% 18.0% 6.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 50.0% 69.0% 58.2% 52.4% 38.2% 46.9% 18.9% 8.0% SHIPS-RII 71.3% 87.2% 83.2% 81.3% 68.1% 60.9% 34.1% 15.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 57.5% 64.3% 50.4% 49.4% 36.6% 59.8% 43.2% 7.9% Logistic Regression 35.9% 53.9% 33.2% 23.9% 24.7% 19.1% 7.8% 3.6% Bayesian 59.9% 83.5% 84.5% 76.8% 42.1% 53.0% 12.2% 0.6% DTOPS 82.0% 77.0% 69.0% 71.0% 55.0% 65.0% 65.0% 3.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/25/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.0% 47.1% 35.4% 31.9% 13.4% 39.8% 33.5% 19.9% SHIPS Consensus 24.0% 64.5% 54.4% 43.5% 27.3% 43.8% 32.2% 10.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 22.0% 60.1% 49.6% 40.6% 23.8% 42.8% 32.5% 12.4% SHIPS-RII 37.7% 85.4% 78.0% 72.0% 56.5% 74.3% 62.4% 20.8% AI-RI and DTOPS 21.0% 64.5% 58.2% 58.9% 41.7% 63.9% 60.2% 14.9% Logistic Regression 15.2% 41.5% 23.4% 14.3% 12.7% 13.7% 10.3% 6.2% Bayesian 19.2% 66.5% 61.8% 44.2% 12.6% 43.5% 24.1% 3.0% DTOPS 26.0% 82.0% 81.0% 86.0% 70.0% 88.0% 87.0% 10.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/25/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 159 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.0% 51.0% 30.7% 19.6% 14.1% 52.1% 38.4% 21.2% SHIPS Consensus 11.2% 45.7% 34.3% 20.5% 12.3% 34.0% 35.8% 19.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.1% 47.0% 33.3% 20.2% 12.7% 38.5% 36.4% 20.2% SHIPS-RII 14.0% 64.1% 46.7% 39.1% 24.9% 61.8% 65.6% 41.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 24.0% 53.5% 35.3% 23.3% 13.5% 63.5% 62.2% 15.1% Logistic Regression 11.2% 33.5% 18.1% 9.7% 6.1% 11.4% 10.7% 7.1% Bayesian 8.3% 39.4% 38.0% 12.8% 6.0% 28.9% 31.0% 11.4% DTOPS 29.0% 56.0% 40.0% 27.0% 13.0% 75.0% 86.0% 9.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/25/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.6% 59.6% 22.4% 24.1% 10.3% 47.9% 39.5% 29.4% SHIPS Consensus 18.3% 61.3% 53.0% 37.3% 15.8% 51.9% 52.1% 28.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.6% 60.8% 45.3% 34.0% 14.4% 50.8% 48.9% 28.6% SHIPS-RII 14.5% 61.6% 47.7% 42.4% 26.9% 71.6% 77.5% 52.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 13.3% 62.3% 37.2% 35.0% 23.6% 62.4% 67.2% 61.2% Logistic Regression 20.1% 58.2% 43.0% 29.3% 12.4% 30.8% 29.5% 19.9% Bayesian 20.4% 64.0% 68.1% 40.2% 8.2% 53.2% 49.3% 12.9% DTOPS 11.0% 65.0% 52.0% 46.0% 37.0% 77.0% 95.0% 93.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/25/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.3% 44.9% 14.7% 7.3% 5.4% 29.7% 30.2% 27.9% SHIPS Consensus 18.6% 53.8% 49.2% 36.8% 18.2% 47.5% 45.9% 30.7% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.2% 51.5% 40.5% 29.4% 15.0% 43.0% 41.9% 30.0% SHIPS-RII 26.3% 66.1% 60.8% 56.6% 41.3% 85.2% 80.0% 53.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 25.6% 58.9% 38.3% 29.6% 21.2% 48.8% 59.6% 52.4% Logistic Regression 16.8% 52.3% 39.0% 27.0% 11.6% 28.3% 33.0% 26.5% Bayesian 12.6% 42.9% 47.8% 26.8% 1.7% 29.0% 24.7% 12.5% DTOPS 38.0% 73.0% 62.0% 52.0% 37.0% 68.0% 89.0% 77.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Genevieve at 07/24/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 158 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.3% 32.8% 12.2% 3.4% 1.1% 21.8% 34.3% 39.6% SHIPS Consensus 7.6% 34.6% 25.4% 13.6% 5.8% 26.5% 42.1% 39.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 34.1% 22.0% 11.0% 4.6% 25.2% 40.1% 39.7% SHIPS-RII 11.9% 33.9% 24.4% 18.3% 14.2% 50.2% 69.9% 49.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 17.6% 38.9% 23.6% 14.7% 7.5% 35.9% 60.1% 67.8% Logistic Regression 5.8% 31.9% 16.7% 8.4% 2.4% 19.6% 50.1% 45.3% Bayesian 5.0% 38.1% 35.1% 14.0% 0.8% 9.5% 6.4% 24.5% DTOPS 29.0% 62.0% 59.0% 48.0% 28.0% 52.0% 88.0% 99.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seven at 07/24/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 160 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.1% 27.4% 8.1% 3.3% 0.8% 26.4% 17.9% 30.7% SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 16.5% 10.5% 6.8% 0.5% 13.9% 31.8% 30.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 19.2% 9.9% 5.9% 0.6% 17.0% 28.3% 30.3% SHIPS-RII 9.2% 21.7% 18.0% 15.1% 0.0% 27.4% 62.9% 48.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.0% 38.2% 20.5% 5.1% 2.4% 23.7% 28.4% 53.3% Logistic Regression 2.5% 24.0% 11.2% 4.9% 1.6% 12.1% 22.5% 31.0% Bayesian 0.6% 3.8% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 2.1% 10.1% 11.1% DTOPS 6.0% 49.0% 33.0% 7.0% 4.0% 21.0% 39.0% 76.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------