Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Eight intensity image current Eight RI diff image

 


Hernan at 08/15/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 126 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hernan at 08/15/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hernan at 08/15/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 91 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.4% 3.9% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 2.9% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 11.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hernan at 08/15/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.9% 3.5% 2.7% 0.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 4.1% 2.8% 2.1% 0.0% 3.3% 2.9% 2.8% SHIPS-RII 4.0% 12.7% 9.5% 7.7% 0.0% 12.1% 11.5% 10.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hernan at 08/14/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 135 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 4.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4.4% 3.9% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 3.4% 3.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 11.8% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hernan at 08/14/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 126 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 4.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hernan at 08/14/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 103 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hernan at 08/14/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Hernan at 08/13/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 121 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 1.8% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 4.2% 3.1% 2.7% 1.8% 4.1% 4.0% 3.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 2.6% 1.8% 1.5% 0.9% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 5.3% 12.5% 9.4% 8.1% 5.5% 12.2% 11.8% 10.7%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Hernan at 08/13/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 97 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Eight at 08/13/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 99 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------