Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Iselle intensity image current Iselle RI diff image

 


Iselle at 08/27/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 24 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Iselle at 08/26/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 45 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Iselle at 08/26/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 51 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Iselle at 08/26/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 63 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Iselle at 08/26/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 66 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.8% 2.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% SHIPS-RII 3.4% 9.5% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Iselle at 08/25/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 68 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.2% 2.8% 2.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.1% 2.1% 1.7% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.5% 12.5% 8.5% 7.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Iselle at 08/25/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 82 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 4.9% 3.9% 3.5% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 3.7% 2.9% 2.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.3% 14.8% 11.6% 10.6% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Iselle at 08/25/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 97 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 5.6% 4.5% 4.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 4.2% 3.3% 3.0% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.3% 16.7% 13.4% 12.1% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Iselle at 08/25/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 7.7% 6.2% 5.2% 4.1% 5.6% 3.9% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 6.1% 4.7% 3.9% 3.0% 4.2% 2.9% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.5% 22.6% 18.3% 15.5% 12.2% 16.9% 11.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.4% 2.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Iselle at 08/24/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.3% 10.1% 7.0% 5.9% 4.7% 6.4% 4.5% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 8.2% 5.5% 4.5% 3.5% 4.8% 3.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.6% 29.3% 20.8% 17.7% 14.0% 19.2% 13.6% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.2% 4.7% 2.5% 1.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Iselle at 08/24/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 3.9% 5.9% 3.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 9.6% 6.8% 5.7% 4.4% 7.0% 5.1% 2.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 8.1% 6.6% 5.1% 3.4% 5.3% 3.8% 2.1% SHIPS-RII 13.1% 26.3% 20.0% 17.0% 13.0% 20.9% 15.3% 8.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.7% 6.9% 5.9% 3.6% 1.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 10.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Iselle at 08/24/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.6% 8.7% 6.0% 3.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 18.9% 9.7% 6.9% 5.0% 8.7% 6.1% 3.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 14.3% 7.7% 5.4% 3.7% 6.2% 4.4% 2.6% SHIPS-RII 13.5% 44.2% 26.7% 19.3% 14.1% 25.5% 18.2% 11.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.8% 12.8% 7.0% 3.6% 1.9% 2.4% 0.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.9% 11.7% 2.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 7.0% 18.0% 9.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Iselle at 08/24/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.5% 20.0% 7.4% 1.2% 0.8% 2.2% 1.4% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 19.3% 9.5% 6.7% 5.0% 8.4% 7.7% 4.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 19.5% 8.9% 5.3% 3.9% 6.8% 6.1% 3.3% SHIPS-RII 13.2% 42.6% 25.3% 18.2% 13.9% 24.7% 22.7% 13.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.7% 19.5% 8.2% 2.6% 2.4% 4.1% 2.2% 0.1% Logistic Regression 4.5% 13.9% 3.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 6.0% 19.0% 9.0% 4.0% 4.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Iselle at 08/23/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 7.6% 6.4% 5.5% 4.4% 7.2% 6.2% 3.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 5.7% 4.5% 3.7% 2.9% 4.9% 4.5% 2.7% SHIPS-RII 11.3% 21.6% 19.0% 16.5% 13.0% 21.6% 18.5% 10.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 7.7% 2.4% 1.1% 1.0% 4.6% 4.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 20.0% 8.0% 4.0% 4.0% 13.0% 7.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Iselle at 08/23/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 160 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 12.2% 32.1% 29.2% 13.9% 5.1% 21.1% 11.6% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 10.3% 29.6% 15.4% 10.3% 6.3% 11.9% 14.2% 5.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 10.8% 30.2% 18.8% 11.2% 5.9% 14.2% 13.5% 4.2% SHIPS-RII 13.1% 42.8% 28.6% 20.7% 14.5% 28.3% 40.1% 15.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 8.6% 37.0% 25.1% 9.4% 4.5% 17.0% 9.8% 1.1% Logistic Regression 10.5% 36.3% 12.4% 8.1% 3.4% 6.4% 2.4% 0.2%
Bayesian 7.4% 9.7% 5.2% 2.2% 0.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 5.0% 42.0% 21.0% 5.0% 4.0% 13.0% 8.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------