Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Ten intensity image current Ten RI diff image

 


Julio at 08/25/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 1.1% 4.4% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.7% 2.7% 2.3% 1.5% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.1% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 4.6% 11.2% 8.0% 6.9% 4.5% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 2.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Julio at 08/25/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 4.8% 2.3% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 6.5% 5.4% 4.5% 3.5% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.4% 4.1% 3.4% 2.6% N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 10.4% 19.3% 16.1% 13.5% 10.4% N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 2.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 1.2% 2.4% 1.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A N/A N/A
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Ten at 08/25/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 22.7% 3.8% 1.1% 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 5.2% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 11.5% 7.3% 5.8% 0.2% 8.2% 9.8% N/A
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 14.3% 6.4% 4.6% 0.2% 6.6% 7.5% N/A SHIPS-RII 10.3% 22.2% 17.8% 14.6% 0.0% 21.6% 26.2% N/A
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.5% 16.3% 3.4% 1.0% 0.6% 1.5% 0.7% 2.6% Logistic Regression 4.1% 12.0% 3.9% 2.6% 0.6% 2.9% 3.3% N/A
Bayesian 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% N/A
DTOPS 2.0% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
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Ten at 08/24/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 155 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.9% 25.0% 8.3% 3.0% 0.4% 4.4% 0.2% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 13.5% 8.2% 6.4% 0.5% 7.0% 6.0% 5.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus SHIPS-RII 9.4% 22.7% 18.4% 15.2% 0.0% 19.5% 17.3% 15.3%
AI-RI and DTOPS Logistic Regression 2.9% 16.9% 5.9% 3.8% 1.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0%
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