Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Karina at 09/07/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 58 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/06/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 52 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/06/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 44 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/06/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 46 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/06/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 55 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/05/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 57 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/05/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 54 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 2.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.0% 9.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/05/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 49 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.0% 4.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.5% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.1% 14.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/05/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 51 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 5.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 3.8% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.8% 15.2% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/04/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 46 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 4.9% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.7% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.1% 14.7% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/04/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 40 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/04/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 51 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/04/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 53 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/03/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 54 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/03/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 73 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/03/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 62 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/03/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 58 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/02/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 66 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/02/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 69 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/02/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 75 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/02/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 83 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/01/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 77 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.8% 1.8% 1.0% 0.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/01/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 78 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.4% 3.5% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/01/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 83 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.9% 2.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 09/01/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 114 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 4.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.8% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.8% 3.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/31/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 127 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.1% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.0% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/31/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 133 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 5.1% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.1% 3.8% 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.4% 11.6% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 4.6% 3.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/31/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 130 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 18.5% 8.9% 1.6% 2.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.2% 6.8% 1.2% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 23.2% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 32.2% 10.1% 4.8% 6.2% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 12.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/31/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 15.7% 7.9% 6.2% 5.8% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 12.6% 6.0% 4.7% 4.3% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 31.6% 18.8% 16.7% 15.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.2% 5.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 15.5% 4.9% 2.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 15.0% 10.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/30/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.7% 7.0% 5.5% 4.9% 3.8% 5.5% 3.9% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 5.7% 4.2% 3.7% 2.9% 4.1% 3.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.8% 19.1% 16.3% 14.6% 11.3% 16.4% 11.6% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.3% 19.4% 11.2% 8.6% 6.1% 4.0% 0.6% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 17.0% 37.0% 22.0% 17.0% 12.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/30/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.2% 3.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.0% 7.5% 5.9% 5.2% 4.0% 6.0% 4.4% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.5% 6.4% 4.9% 4.0% 3.0% 4.5% 3.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.4% 19.6% 17.1% 15.3% 12.0% 17.9% 13.1% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 5.6% 13.1% 6.0% 3.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 2.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 8.0% 23.0% 10.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/30/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 131 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 8.5% 6.2% 5.4% 4.1% 6.2% 4.8% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 6.6% 4.7% 4.0% 3.1% 4.7% 3.6% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.7% 20.9% 17.6% 15.5% 12.2% 18.5% 14.2% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.0% 4.0% 2.2% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 2.2% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.6% 4.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/30/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 138 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.4% 5.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 1.2% 2.6% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 8.9% 6.7% 5.7% 4.4% 6.7% 5.3% 3.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.3% 8.8% 5.6% 4.5% 3.4% 5.3% 4.6% 2.9% SHIPS-RII 12.4% 23.7% 19.5% 16.7% 13.2% 19.8% 15.6% 11.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.2% 27.2% 13.2% 10.7% 9.6% 19.1% 4.3% 0.1% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 10.0% 48.0% 23.0% 19.0% 18.0% 35.0% 5.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/29/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.1% 24.5% 4.3% 1.9% 3.7% 2.6% 3.1% 0.3% SHIPS Consensus 8.3% 19.5% 9.8% 7.8% 4.9% 7.3% 5.6% 4.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 20.7% 8.4% 6.3% 4.6% 6.1% 5.0% 3.2% SHIPS-RII 13.7% 36.5% 22.2% 18.2% 14.2% 21.0% 16.7% 12.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 13.0% 35.2% 13.1% 10.4% 10.3% 24.8% 10.5% 0.1% Logistic Regression 6.5% 19.0% 5.9% 4.6% 0.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 4.6% 2.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 17.0% 46.0% 22.0% 19.0% 17.0% 47.0% 18.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/29/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.2% 7.9% 2.4% 1.4% 2.5% 4.4% 2.5% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 6.1% 21.3% 12.4% 8.8% 5.2% 8.6% 6.5% 5.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.6% 17.9% 9.9% 6.9% 4.5% 7.5% 5.5% 3.9% SHIPS-RII 13.0% 43.1% 29.6% 21.7% 14.9% 24.1% 19.0% 15.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 23.6% 46.4% 36.7% 33.7% 29.2% 35.2% 5.2% 0.2% Logistic Regression 3.3% 18.7% 5.9% 4.0% 0.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 43.0% 85.0% 71.0% 66.0% 56.0% 66.0% 8.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/29/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 148 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.3% 11.7% 2.0% 1.8% 4.3% 7.0% 2.8% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 21.6% 14.6% 10.7% 6.7% 9.3% 6.7% 5.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 19.1% 11.5% 8.4% 6.1% 8.7% 5.7% 4.0% SHIPS-RII 13.6% 46.3% 36.7% 27.6% 19.4% 26.0% 19.8% 15.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 25.3% 9.5% 8.9% 10.6% 30.5% 13.9% 0.5% Logistic Regression 2.7% 16.8% 6.0% 4.1% 0.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian 1.1% 1.8% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 39.0% 17.0% 16.0% 17.0% 54.0% 25.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/29/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.5% 30.3% 11.1% 7.7% 9.7% 17.4% 8.5% 0.9% SHIPS Consensus 17.3% 46.8% 37.3% 28.1% 12.1% 20.5% 10.0% 5.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.3% 42.6% 30.7% 22.9% 11.4% 19.7% 9.6% 4.2% SHIPS-RII 28.4% 66.5% 53.4% 43.9% 32.3% 40.9% 27.4% 15.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 9.2% 38.6% 18.5% 9.8% 9.3% 21.7% 14.2% 2.4% Logistic Regression 17.3% 52.2% 29.4% 26.1% 3.2% 15.1% 1.9% 0.2% Bayesian 6.3% 21.7% 29.1% 14.2% 0.7% 5.6% 0.6% 0.0% DTOPS 13.0% 47.0% 26.0% 12.0% 9.0% 26.0% 20.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/28/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 137 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 30.3% 12.0% 4.2% 3.1% 14.8% 5.5% 2.1% SHIPS Consensus 29.1% 58.4% 48.4% 37.9% 17.5% 28.5% 14.2% 5.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.0% 40.0% 25.7% 17.7% 7.9% 21.4% 15.3% 5.3% SHIPS-RII 36.7% 73.6% 62.7% 55.0% 39.5% 54.8% 39.1% 16.3% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.8% 36.1% 17.5% 6.6% 5.0% 14.4% 21.7% 4.5% Logistic Regression 22.8% 55.1% 31.9% 28.7% 8.3% 15.3% 1.9% 0.3% Bayesian 27.9% 46.5% 50.7% 30.1% 4.7% 15.5% 1.6% 0.0% DTOPS 31.0% 53.0% 36.0% 18.0% 12.0% 16.0% 31.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/28/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 27.7% 6.7% 4.4% 3.8% 14.8% 10.1% 3.9% SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 26.3% 15.0% 9.7% 5.3% 10.5% 12.5% 6.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 26.7% 12.9% 8.4% 4.9% 11.5% 11.8% 6.1% SHIPS-RII 11.6% 37.2% 22.7% 17.4% 14.1% 24.3% 35.0% 20.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.5% 25.8% 8.8% 4.7% 3.9% 14.4% 14.0% 9.4% Logistic Regression 6.0% 31.6% 13.9% 9.3% 1.8% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% Bayesian 4.5% 10.3% 8.3% 2.5% 0.1% 2.2% 1.1% 0.0% DTOPS 4.0% 24.0% 11.0% 5.0% 4.0% 14.0% 18.0% 15.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/28/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 151 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 14.8% 6.0% 3.1% 1.7% 15.7% 8.4% 5.1% SHIPS Consensus 12.3% 39.5% 28.9% 17.3% 6.9% 19.3% 23.2% 7.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.4% 33.3% 23.2% 13.7% 5.6% 18.3% 19.4% 6.8% SHIPS-RII 13.5% 49.9% 36.3% 26.3% 17.0% 36.3% 58.7% 21.2% AI-RI and DTOPS 2.6% 23.4% 12.5% 7.0% 5.8% 19.8% 26.2% 18.0% Logistic Regression 10.6% 45.4% 25.4% 18.5% 3.0% 10.0% 2.1% 0.6% Bayesian 12.6% 23.1% 25.1% 7.1% 0.7% 11.5% 8.7% 0.3% DTOPS 4.0% 32.0% 19.0% 11.0% 10.0% 24.0% 44.0% 31.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/28/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 47.0% 25.5% 12.3% 5.0% 29.3% 14.3% 9.1% SHIPS Consensus 29.4% 71.7% 64.6% 51.1% 19.4% 53.4% 33.3% 10.2% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 22.9% 65.5% 54.8% 41.3% 15.8% 47.3% 28.5% 9.8% SHIPS-RII 34.4% 72.6% 62.0% 53.2% 37.3% 69.6% 68.3% 26.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.3% 47.5% 27.7% 16.1% 10.5% 23.1% 21.6% 26.0% Logistic Regression 30.1% 73.5% 54.1% 48.9% 11.2% 46.3% 13.9% 2.7% Bayesian 23.8% 69.1% 77.7% 51.1% 9.8% 44.3% 17.9% 1.3% DTOPS 19.0% 48.0% 30.0% 20.0% 16.0% 17.0% 29.0% 43.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Karina at 08/27/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.6% 58.8% 31.0% 14.9% 6.7% 47.2% 26.3% 10.7% SHIPS Consensus 19.5% 69.0% 52.0% 37.3% 11.9% 48.9% 40.0% 20.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 17.3% 66.4% 46.7% 31.7% 10.5% 48.4% 36.5% 17.9% SHIPS-RII 14.1% 62.7% 43.4% 31.8% 19.3% 54.5% 65.9% 54.4% AI-RI and DTOPS 12.3% 48.4% 23.0% 9.4% 4.8% 32.1% 28.1% 44.3% Logistic Regression 17.4% 70.2% 44.3% 35.7% 8.4% 39.0% 15.4% 3.0% Bayesian 27.1% 74.0% 68.3% 44.5% 7.9% 53.2% 38.6% 3.6% DTOPS 14.0% 38.0% 15.0% 4.0% 3.0% 17.0% 30.0% 78.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------