Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Lowell intensity image current Lowell RI diff image

 


Lowell at 09/11/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 68 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/10/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 64 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/10/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 59 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/10/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 64 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/10/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 65 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/09/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 61 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/09/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 61 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/09/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 53 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/09/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 53 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/08/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 58 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/08/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 77 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/08/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 89 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/08/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 106 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/07/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 117 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/07/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/07/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 114 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/07/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 120 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.4% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/06/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 4.2% 3.2% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 3.3% 2.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.3% 12.4% 9.6% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/06/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 1.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 5.2% 4.2% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 4.3% 3.4% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.2% 15.2% 12.5% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/06/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 118 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.2% 5.5% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 4.2% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.6% 15.6% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/06/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 125 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 5.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 3.9% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 14.6% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/05/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 125 kts, MPI = 133 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/05/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 138 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/05/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 136 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/05/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.0% 3.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/04/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.1% 2.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 6.3% 4.8% 4.1% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 5.3% 4.0% 3.1% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 9.2% 16.7% 13.9% 11.9% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.5% 3.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.5% 2.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/04/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 7.1% 5.1% 4.3% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 5.7% 3.9% 3.2% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.7% 16.8% 14.0% 12.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 1.7% 0.8% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.8% 4.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/04/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 5.3% 4.2% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 4.1% 3.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.0% 14.4% 12.1% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/03/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.3% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 4.6% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.3% 3.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.4% 13.0% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/03/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 1.9% 4.0% 2.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 3.4% 2.2% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 5.0% 10.8% 8.3% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/03/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 139 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/03/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 135 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 1.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.6% 2.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/02/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 140 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 1.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 5.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 11.8% 4.8% 3.1% 3.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Bayesian 2.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/02/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 130 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 11.4% 3.1% 2.2% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 9.4% 2.4% 1.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 16.3% 9.0% 6.5% 7.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Bayesian 3.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/02/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 13.3% 4.0% 1.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 46.6% 30.7% 27.6% 20.4% 14.9% 4.0% 0.2% 0.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 38.2% 24.0% 21.1% 15.4% 11.3% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 59.9% 39.0% 32.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 25.6% 6.5% 3.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 77.6% 52.9% 50.0% 61.2% 44.7% 12.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Bayesian 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 38.0% 9.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/02/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 141 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 31.4% 18.3% 6.6% 5.6% 6.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 53.5% 39.0% 38.1% 40.8% 30.7% 9.7% 0.6% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 48.0% 33.8% 30.2% 31.9% 24.5% 7.5% 0.5% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 70.5% 46.8% 45.8% 44.8% 34.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 46.2% 31.6% 19.3% 5.8% 3.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 87.1% 68.9% 68.4% 77.4% 57.5% 29.0% 1.9% 0.2%
Bayesian 3.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 61.0% 45.0% 32.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/01/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 17.5% 24.1% 13.3% 7.6% 9.7% 9.4% 2.0% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 36.0% 46.7% 28.3% 26.2% 11.6% 14.0% 0.4% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 31.4% 41.0% 24.5% 21.5% 11.1% 12.8% 0.8% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 41.0% 46.5% 39.5% 37.4% 22.9% 28.1% 0.0% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 37.2% 38.5% 24.1% 19.3% 13.3% 23.7% 4.5% 0.5% Logistic Regression 38.5% 51.2% 32.9% 35.4% 10.8% 11.4% 1.2% 0.3%
Bayesian 28.6% 42.5% 12.5% 5.9% 1.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 57.0% 53.0% 35.0% 31.0% 17.0% 38.0% 7.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/01/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 148 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 25.6% 45.8% 21.0% 4.1% 7.0% 18.0% 8.4% 2.8% SHIPS Consensus 25.7% 49.3% 26.8% 22.1% 9.4% 13.8% 7.5% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 25.6% 48.4% 25.3% 17.5% 8.8% 14.8% 7.7% 0.8% SHIPS-RII 30.0% 48.0% 37.4% 32.4% 20.7% 28.7% 20.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 50.8% 60.4% 40.0% 35.0% 25.0% 47.5% 32.7% 7.4% Logistic Regression 29.8% 51.1% 27.6% 26.5% 4.8% 7.4% 1.0% 0.5%
Bayesian 17.4% 48.7% 15.5% 7.2% 2.7% 5.3% 0.8% 0.0%
DTOPS 76.0% 75.0% 59.0% 66.0% 43.0% 77.0% 57.0% 12.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/01/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 144 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 21.6% 31.1% 23.8% 6.5% 6.5% 13.9% 11.0% 8.6% SHIPS Consensus 11.5% 24.9% 13.4% 11.4% 6.2% 9.1% 6.8% 5.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.0% 26.4% 15.9% 10.1% 6.2% 10.2% 7.8% 6.2% SHIPS-RII 14.0% 36.0% 28.1% 26.2% 17.3% 24.1% 18.7% 16.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 39.3% 57.5% 52.4% 44.2% 35.2% 35.4% 22.0% 16.3% Logistic Regression 13.7% 23.7% 9.4% 7.2% 1.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.4%
Bayesian 6.9% 14.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0%
DTOPS 57.0% 84.0% 81.0% 82.0% 64.0% 57.0% 33.0% 24.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 09/01/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 4.9% 20.1% 7.7% 1.7% 1.4% 11.1% 5.7% 11.9% SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 13.5% 8.8% 7.8% 5.0% 7.8% 6.0% 5.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.5% 15.1% 8.5% 6.2% 4.1% 8.6% 5.9% 6.8% SHIPS-RII 11.9% 23.9% 20.9% 19.4% 14.5% 22.4% 17.6% 15.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 27.4% 57.5% 48.3% 44.3% 38.7% 50.0% 38.8% 43.4% Logistic Regression 4.7% 15.5% 5.5% 3.9% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 50.0% 95.0% 89.0% 87.0% 76.0% 89.0% 72.0% 75.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/31/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 6.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 1.8% 3.8% 10.9% SHIPS Consensus 6.0% 12.9% 9.5% 8.3% 5.2% 7.8% 6.1% 5.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 11.1% 7.3% 6.3% 4.0% 6.3% 5.5% 6.5% SHIPS-RII 12.5% 23.7% 22.7% 20.8% 15.0% 22.8% 17.9% 15.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 6.7% 36.0% 33.9% 35.2% 27.6% 40.9% 32.9% 47.9% Logistic Regression 3.8% 14.2% 5.8% 4.0% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2%
Bayesian 1.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
DTOPS 12.0% 66.0% 67.0% 70.0% 55.0% 80.0% 62.0% 85.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/31/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 142 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.7% 5.1% 1.8% 0.5% 0.6% 10.6% 6.8% 9.7% SHIPS Consensus 8.4% 22.6% 15.7% 14.0% 6.7% 11.6% 8.0% 0.2%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.6% 9.9% 6.5% 5.2% 3.6% 8.8% 6.5% 6.5% SHIPS-RII 13.1% 33.8% 31.3% 29.9% 18.0% 31.2% 22.4% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 4.8% 40.0% 25.4% 19.2% 15.8% 51.3% 47.9% 49.3% Logistic Regression 8.5% 27.8% 14.6% 11.7% 2.0% 3.2% 0.6% 0.5%
Bayesian 3.6% 6.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 84.0% 70.0% 63.0% 47.0% 93.0% 87.0% 82.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/31/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 140 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.5% 8.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.4% 5.9% 1.5% 9.3% SHIPS Consensus 4.0% 10.3% 7.1% 6.0% 4.3% 8.6% 6.8% 5.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.4% 9.9% 5.6% 4.6% 3.3% 7.9% 5.5% 6.4% SHIPS-RII 10.1% 20.9% 18.4% 16.2% 12.8% 24.1% 19.8% 16.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.2% 17.3% 8.2% 5.3% 4.2% 32.4% 39.7% 52.1% Logistic Regression 1.7% 9.2% 2.9% 1.9% 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 26.0% 15.0% 10.0% 8.0% 59.0% 78.0% 95.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/31/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 143 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.1% 4.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 6.8% 8.0% 14.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 7.8% 5.6% 4.8% 3.6% 6.9% 6.3% 5.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.3% 6.9% 4.3% 3.7% 2.6% 6.9% 6.7% 7.9% SHIPS-RII 7.3% 17.4% 15.1% 13.6% 10.5% 20.0% 18.6% 17.1%
AI-RI and DTOPS 2.0% 10.2% 3.7% 2.2% 1.5% 14.9% 29.5% 51.2% Logistic Regression 0.8% 5.9% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 16.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 23.0% 51.0% 88.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/30/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.8% 6.4% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 6.6% 2.7% 12.3% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 6.8% 5.2% 4.6% 3.4% 6.6% 6.2% 5.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.5% 6.6% 4.0% 3.5% 2.5% 6.6% 5.3% 7.2% SHIPS-RII 7.6% 16.5% 14.5% 13.2% 10.2% 19.4% 18.3% 16.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 7.7% 2.8% 1.6% 1.0% 5.8% 5.8% 47.6% Logistic Regression 0.7% 3.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 2.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5.0% 9.0% 83.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/30/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 145 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 2.7% 4.6% 9.9% SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 6.2% 4.9% 4.5% 0.0% 6.4% 5.9% 5.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 4.9% 3.7% 3.3% 0.0% 5.4% 5.5% 6.5% SHIPS-RII 7.3% 15.1% 13.9% 13.0% 0.0% 18.9% 17.5% 15.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 7.2% 2.5% 1.5% 1.1% 12.8% 27.8% 53.4% Logistic Regression 0.5% 3.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 13.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 23.0% 51.0% 97.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/30/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 116 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.7% 5.5% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 8.9% 6.4% 5.3% 4.0% 7.5% 6.5% 6.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 6.9% 4.8% 3.9% 2.9% 6.0% 5.0% 5.8% SHIPS-RII 9.8% 19.5% 16.9% 14.8% 11.6% 21.2% 19.1% 17.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 4.5% 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 4.2% 15.3% 51.7% Logistic Regression 1.1% 6.8% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.9%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 7.0% 30.0% 98.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/30/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 134 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 6.8% 5.0% 4.4% 3.2% 6.3% 6.0% 6.5%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHIPS-RII 6.7% 15.9% 13.7% 12.6% 9.6% 18.4% 17.7% 18.8%
AI-RI and DTOPS N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression 0.5% 4.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/29/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 146 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 1.4% 5.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 7.5% 5.8% 4.8% 3.8% 6.9% 6.3% 6.4%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.6% 2.8% 5.3% 5.0% 6.0% SHIPS-RII 8.1% 18.2% 16.0% 14.0% 11.2% 20.1% 18.7% 18.9%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 5.5% 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 4.4% 17.7% 26.5% Logistic Regression 0.5% 4.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 10.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 8.0% 34.0% 48.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/29/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 152 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 3.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 2.3% 2.6% 6.6% SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 8.9% 6.1% 5.0% 3.7% 7.0% 6.4% 7.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 7.5% 4.9% 3.8% 2.8% 5.8% 5.4% 7.1% SHIPS-RII 8.4% 19.9% 16.4% 14.0% 10.9% 20.3% 18.9% 21.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 6.2% 2.7% 0.6% 1.0% 6.1% 19.3% 51.3% Logistic Regression 0.9% 6.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.7%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 2.0% 10.0% 36.0% 96.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/29/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 149 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.6% 2.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 2.7% 3.0% 6.1% SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 6.7% 5.2% 4.5% 0.0% 6.5% 6.0% 6.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 5.7% 4.0% 3.4% 0.0% 5.5% 5.2% 6.0% SHIPS-RII 7.8% 16.8% 14.9% 13.1% 0.0% 19.0% 17.5% 17.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.8% 3.9% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 2.3% 3.0% 15.0% Logistic Regression 0.6% 3.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 24.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/29/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 151 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 2.2% 5.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 5.8% 4.4% 3.9% 0.0% 5.7% 5.6% 5.8%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 4.6% 3.3% 2.9% 0.0% 4.6% 4.7% 5.7% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 14.3% 12.5% 11.5% 0.0% 17.0% 16.4% 17.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.6% 3.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 2.1% 2.6% 30.2% Logistic Regression 0.4% 3.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 3.0% 55.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/28/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 150 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.5% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 1.6% 2.3% 4.4% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 5.5% 4.5% 4.0% 0.0% 5.9% 5.7% 5.6%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 4.7% 3.4% 3.0% 0.0% 4.8% 4.9% 5.2% SHIPS-RII 5.9% 14.9% 13.1% 11.7% 0.0% 17.7% 17.0% 16.4%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 2.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 1.3% 2.1% 3.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/28/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 156 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 2.2% 2.9% SHIPS Consensus 0.1% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 5.6% 0.1%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.5% 4.7% 0.7% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 16.7% 0.0%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 1.3% 2.1% 4.9% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 7.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/28/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 157 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 3.5% SHIPS Consensus 2.2% 6.5% 4.4% 3.7% 2.7% 5.8% 5.4% 5.3%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 5.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.8% SHIPS-RII 6.1% 15.4% 12.6% 10.8% 8.1% 17.1% 16.0% 15.5%
AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 1.8% 2.2% Logistic Regression 0.4% 3.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
Bayesian 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DTOPS 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/28/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 158 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 3.2% 12.2% 5.2% 3.7% 1.6% 3.7% 9.0% 17.3% SHIPS Consensus 9.4% 26.6% 12.2% 9.3% 3.4% 8.5% 6.6% 7.9%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 7.8% 22.9% 10.4% 7.8% 2.9% 7.2% 7.2% 10.2% SHIPS-RII 9.2% 20.4% 15.3% 12.4% 8.9% 19.3% 18.2% 19.6%
AI-RI and DTOPS 3.1% 12.1% 6.6% 3.3% 1.8% 4.3% 7.5% 8.6% Logistic Regression 15.7% 51.1% 19.4% 14.8% 1.2% 5.3% 1.2% 4.1%
Bayesian 3.2% 8.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0%
DTOPS 3.0% 12.0% 8.0% 3.0% 2.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 


Lowell at 08/27/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 161 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.7% 16.0% 5.2% 3.4% 0.6% 10.8% 10.4% 14.8% SHIPS Consensus 13.8% 23.0% 12.1% 8.4% 3.3% 7.4% 6.5% 7.0%
AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 11.8% 21.2% 10.4% 7.1% 2.6% 8.2% 7.5% 8.9% SHIPS-RII 10.7% 21.1% 15.8% 12.9% 9.2% 18.8% 17.7% 19.2%
AI-RI and DTOPS 7.3% 13.0% 5.1% 2.7% 1.3% 7.4% 6.7% 7.4% Logistic Regression 15.2% 42.5% 19.2% 11.8% 0.8% 2.6% 0.4% 1.9%
Bayesian 15.6% 5.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.8% 1.5% 0.0%
DTOPS 9.0% 10.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------