Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Marie at 09/08/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 0 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/08/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 7 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/08/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 10 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/07/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 13 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 0.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/07/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 18 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 4.4% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.6% 3.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.4% 13.1% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/07/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 25 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 5.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 3.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.0% 15.0% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/07/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 25 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.4% 4.8% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.8% 3.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 7.2% 14.5% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/06/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 31 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.1% 3.2% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 1.5% 2.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 6.3% 9.7% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/06/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 51 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 4.1% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.0% 3.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 8.2% 12.3% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/06/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 61 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 4.9% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.6% 3.7% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.5% 14.8% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/06/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 67 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.2% 6.4% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.1% 4.8% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.1% 19.0% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/05/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 67 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 6.0% 5.2% 4.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.8% 4.5% 3.9% 3.4% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.9% 17.9% 15.6% 13.6% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/05/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 75 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 5.8% 4.9% 4.3% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.7% 4.3% 3.6% 3.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.2% 17.2% 14.7% 12.8% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/05/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 80 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 3.9% 5.8% 5.0% 4.4% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 2.9% 4.3% 3.7% 3.3% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 10.5% 16.5% 14.6% 13.2% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/05/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 86 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 5.4% 7.9% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.4% 5.9% 4.5% 3.7% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.4% 20.2% 16.9% 14.4% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.9% 3.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/04/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 77 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.6% 6.8% 5.4% 4.5% 3.7% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.5% 5.2% 4.0% 3.4% 2.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 11.9% 17.8% 15.3% 13.3% 10.9% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/04/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 80 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 6.8% 5.5% 4.8% 3.9% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 3.7% 5.1% 4.0% 3.5% 2.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 12.5% 17.9% 15.9% 14.0% 11.4% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/04/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 88 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.3% 9.6% 6.8% 5.6% 4.5% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.9% 7.2% 5.1% 4.2% 3.4% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.5% 21.8% 18.5% 15.6% 12.8% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 1.9% 1.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.4% 6.9% 1.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/04/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 104 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 6.2% 11.2% 7.0% 5.6% 4.5% 6.0% 4.5% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.1% 8.6% 5.3% 4.2% 3.4% 4.5% 3.3% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 13.3% 22.5% 18.5% 15.2% 12.5% 17.6% 13.4% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.0% 3.3% 2.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.3% 11.1% 2.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 10.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/03/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 123 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 3.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.4% 11.4% 7.1% 5.7% 4.7% 6.2% 4.5% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 9.3% 5.5% 4.3% 3.6% 4.8% 3.4% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 14.7% 22.3% 18.7% 15.5% 12.8% 18.1% 13.5% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 4.3% 11.6% 6.4% 3.6% 3.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.5% 11.5% 2.5% 1.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 8.0% 20.0% 12.0% 7.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/03/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 123 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 2.3% 1.7% 0.7% 0.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% SHIPS Consensus 7.7% 11.6% 7.3% 5.9% 4.8% 6.3% 4.6% 0.0% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 9.2% 5.9% 4.6% 3.6% 4.9% 3.5% 0.0% SHIPS-RII 16.1% 22.5% 19.1% 16.0% 12.9% 18.4% 13.6% 0.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 7.2% 9.1% 6.8% 3.8% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.3% 11.2% 2.8% 1.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 14.0% 16.0% 12.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/03/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 135 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.7% 12.6% 7.3% 3.2% 4.3% 3.2% 1.2% 0.1% SHIPS Consensus 15.2% 21.7% 11.5% 8.2% 6.2% 7.3% 5.4% 3.4% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.5% 19.4% 10.4% 6.9% 5.7% 6.3% 4.3% 2.5% SHIPS-RII 28.5% 36.4% 25.7% 18.9% 14.7% 20.5% 15.8% 10.1% AI-RI and DTOPS 24.3% 24.8% 20.1% 11.1% 9.6% 6.6% 1.1% 0.0% Logistic Regression 13.8% 24.0% 7.2% 5.0% 3.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian 3.4% 4.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 36.0% 37.0% 33.0% 19.0% 15.0% 10.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/03/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 141 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.4% 20.3% 7.2% 5.8% 6.5% 3.0% 1.8% 0.2% SHIPS Consensus 18.5% 26.2% 16.3% 11.8% 8.6% 8.2% 6.0% 3.9% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 16.2% 24.7% 14.0% 10.2% 8.1% 6.8% 4.9% 2.9% SHIPS-RII 40.8% 50.0% 39.0% 29.2% 20.6% 22.7% 17.5% 11.6% AI-RI and DTOPS 19.7% 22.6% 11.1% 9.4% 8.2% 5.5% 1.4% 0.1% Logistic Regression 12.0% 23.4% 7.3% 5.2% 5.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian 2.7% 5.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 30.0% 25.0% 15.0% 13.0% 10.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/02/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 140 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.5% 18.5% 8.7% 3.4% 5.5% 11.8% 6.9% 0.8% SHIPS Consensus 10.6% 24.0% 15.4% 11.7% 8.2% 8.9% 6.5% 4.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.6% 22.6% 13.7% 9.6% 7.5% 9.6% 6.6% 3.6% SHIPS-RII 24.2% 52.6% 41.1% 32.4% 22.4% 25.6% 19.0% 13.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 8.7% 32.7% 23.3% 16.7% 16.7% 20.9% 8.4% 0.4% Logistic Regression 6.0% 15.1% 3.7% 2.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian 1.7% 4.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS 15.0% 47.0% 38.0% 30.0% 28.0% 30.0% 10.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/02/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 142 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.6% 37.8% 17.8% 8.7% 8.0% 20.9% 7.4% 1.1% SHIPS Consensus 11.8% 28.3% 16.3% 12.1% 8.7% 8.7% 6.6% 4.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 13.0% 30.6% 16.7% 11.2% 8.5% 11.7% 6.8% 3.7% SHIPS-RII 23.4% 50.4% 39.8% 31.8% 22.1% 24.3% 18.6% 13.7% AI-RI and DTOPS 37.3% 58.9% 44.4% 30.3% 20.0% 18.4% 6.7% 0.5% Logistic Regression 8.0% 20.3% 5.0% 2.9% 2.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian 4.0% 14.0% 4.2% 1.7% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 58.0% 80.0% 71.0% 52.0% 32.0% 16.0% 6.0% 0.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/02/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 144 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.0% 37.9% 18.8% 12.2% 6.7% 19.0% 8.2% 2.6% SHIPS Consensus 8.0% 25.5% 15.9% 11.3% 7.4% 9.0% 6.5% 4.8% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 8.2% 28.6% 16.6% 11.5% 7.1% 11.4% 6.9% 4.2% SHIPS-RII 17.6% 55.4% 41.8% 31.1% 20.4% 26.0% 18.5% 14.0% AI-RI and DTOPS 23.0% 50.9% 33.9% 30.1% 23.3% 24.5% 15.1% 1.8% Logistic Regression 4.6% 13.9% 3.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% Bayesian 1.8% 7.3% 2.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS 37.0% 64.0% 49.0% 48.0% 40.0% 30.0% 22.0% 1.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/02/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 147 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.0% 27.1% 16.5% 10.0% 7.0% 12.9% 6.4% 3.8% SHIPS Consensus 17.7% 41.4% 26.4% 20.9% 12.1% 17.5% 8.2% 5.1% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 14.2% 37.8% 23.9% 18.2% 10.7% 16.3% 7.7% 4.7% SHIPS-RII 26.7% 55.1% 46.1% 42.1% 25.9% 39.6% 22.4% 14.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 28.0% 54.0% 45.7% 41.0% 30.5% 28.9% 11.2% 2.9% Logistic Regression 14.8% 44.4% 18.6% 13.3% 5.5% 4.8% 1.5% 0.7% Bayesian 11.5% 24.6% 14.7% 7.4% 4.7% 8.2% 0.8% 0.1% DTOPS 52.0% 81.0% 75.0% 72.0% 54.0% 45.0% 16.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/01/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 149 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.7% 30.5% 15.1% 7.4% 5.4% 18.8% 19.7% 4.4% SHIPS Consensus 25.2% 57.3% 36.2% 25.9% 11.1% 23.7% 12.9% 5.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 21.3% 50.6% 30.9% 21.3% 9.6% 22.4% 14.6% 5.3% SHIPS-RII 22.8% 60.0% 45.3% 35.4% 22.0% 51.1% 35.2% 15.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 11.8% 45.2% 27.0% 19.7% 14.2% 41.4% 30.8% 3.2% Logistic Regression 23.2% 58.5% 28.3% 19.7% 5.1% 8.0% 2.1% 0.9% Bayesian 29.6% 53.4% 34.9% 22.7% 6.1% 12.0% 1.5% 0.1% DTOPS 14.0% 60.0% 39.0% 32.0% 23.0% 64.0% 42.0% 2.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/01/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 146 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.9% 21.6% 7.7% 4.5% 2.4% 14.6% 11.7% 6.0% SHIPS Consensus 17.8% 31.1% 16.1% 10.0% 5.3% 15.3% 21.2% 11.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 5.7% 17.7% 13.4% 9.4% 0.6% 10.1% 8.8% 5.7% SHIPS-RII 13.2% 40.8% 27.4% 20.3% 14.4% 34.9% 50.5% 31.5% AI-RI and DTOPS 3.9% 32.3% 19.3% 15.7% 11.2% 20.3% 17.8% 5.5% Logistic Regression 10.0% 38.5% 16.4% 8.7% 1.5% 10.1% 9.8% 2.5% Bayesian 30.3% 14.0% 4.6% 1.1% 0.0% 1.0% 3.1% 0.7% DTOPS 14.0% 63.0% 46.0% 31.0% 20.0% 36.0% 29.0% 7.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Marie at 09/01/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 152 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities SHIPS Matrix of RI probabilities ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.7% 38.0% 15.5% 3.0% 0.8% 13.5% 6.0% 9.2% SHIPS Consensus 5.9% 12.3% 9.1% 6.3% 4.5% 9.2% 10.8% 7.6% AI-RI in SHIPS Consensus 4.8% 18.7% 10.7% 5.4% 3.6% 10.3% 9.5% 8.0% SHIPS-RII 12.2% 23.0% 20.0% 16.7% 13.4% 25.7% 27.9% 19.9% AI-RI and DTOPS 6.3% 29.5% 11.2% 3.5% 2.4% 16.7% 17.5% 6.6% Logistic Regression 0.8% 6.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.1% 1.9% 4.4% 2.3% Bayesian 4.7% 7.2% 5.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% DTOPS 11.0% 21.0% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 20.0% 29.0% 4.0% ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------