Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     One at 07/19/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 07/19/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 07/19/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 07/18/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 07/18/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 07/18/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 3.3% 0.5% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                               One at 07/17/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 2.2% 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 3.5% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 07/17/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 3.0% 1.4% 0.9% 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 5.9% 0.4% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 07/17/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 0.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   One at 07/17/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 2.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 2.3% 0.2% 2.0% 0.2% 3.8% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% 0.8% 0.2% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 2.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                       One at 07/16/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 9.4% 6.8% 1.5% 0.7% 7.8% 3.3% 7.9% 2.6% 7.0% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.9% 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 3.6% 1.4% 2.7% 1.0% 2.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 3.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------