Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Five at 11/26/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 11/26/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/26/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 1.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/25/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/25/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/25/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/25/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/24/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 1.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/24/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 3.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 1.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 3.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 2.5% 1.8% 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/24/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 4.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 2.1% 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 1.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/24/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.6% 7.8% 2.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 7.5% 9.0% 7.6% 7.5% 6.5% 17.8% 2.2% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.2% 8.6% 5.8% 5.3% 4.5% 12.0% 1.5% 4.3% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 29.6% 2.6% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 3.5% 9.6% 6.6% 6.5% 4.5% 6.0% 1.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/23/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.4% 10.9% 4.0% 1.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 12.0% 7.2% 5.4% 5.3% 4.3% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.4% 8.4% 4.9% 3.9% 3.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 17.7% 6.6% 5.4% 5.3% 5.3% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.3% 7.8% 5.4% 5.3% 3.2% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/23/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.4% 9.2% 6.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 3.1% 3.0% 1.9% 1.7% 1.2% 2.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.8% 5.0% 3.3% 1.5% 1.0% 1.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.0% 1.9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 3.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 2.3% 4.1% 2.6% 2.4% 1.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/23/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.4% 12.0% 15.7% 2.2% 2.6% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 8.2% 7.7% 5.6% 5.0% 4.2% 3.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.8% 9.1% 8.9% 4.0% 3.6% 2.9% 0.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.0% 6.4% 5.0% 4.1% 4.1% 5.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 5.3% 9.1% 6.1% 5.9% 4.3% 2.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------             Fina at 11/22/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.6% 25.6% 27.0% 23.5% 24.3% 2.2% 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 1.8% RIPA Consensus 9.1% 11.9% 9.4% 7.7% 6.5% 7.9% 1.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.9% 16.4% 15.2% 12.9% 12.4% 6.0% 1.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.8% 10.3% 8.8% 5.9% 5.9% 12.0% 1.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.4% 13.4% 9.9% 9.4% 7.0% 3.8% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/22/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.8% 19.6% 28.1% 19.8% 14.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 11.5% 14.7% 12.3% 9.5% 9.3% 9.1% 2.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.5% 16.3% 17.5% 12.9% 11.1% 6.4% 1.7% 1.9% 0.1% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 16.4% 14.6% 14.6% 9.7% 9.6% 14.1% 3.4% 3.9% 0.0% 0.6% Logistic Regression 6.5% 14.9% 9.9% 9.4% 9.0% 4.1% 1.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/22/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 22.3% 40.6% 42.6% 22.9% 26.6% 4.4% 5.7% 0.9% 1.7% 3.5% RIPA Consensus 48.4% 47.6% 44.0% 43.8% 38.7% 35.7% 15.2% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 39.7% 45.2% 43.5% 36.8% 34.6% 25.2% 12.0% 8.0% 0.5% 1.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 65.7% 48.8% 44.7% 44.2% 39.0% 44.4% 17.3% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 31.2% 46.3% 43.4% 43.4% 38.4% 26.9% 13.2% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/22/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.0% 42.4% 31.8% 25.1% 34.4% 6.6% 4.6% 1.6% 0.9% 5.0% RIPA Consensus 49.7% 50.2% 47.0% 46.7% 45.9% 34.2% 15.8% 12.3% 0.0% 2.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 39.8% 47.6% 41.9% 39.4% 42.0% 25.0% 12.1% 8.7% 0.3% 2.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 67.5% 51.1% 48.3% 47.7% 47.7% 41.9% 19.2% 17.6% 0.0% 1.8% Logistic Regression 32.0% 49.3% 45.6% 45.6% 44.1% 26.5% 12.5% 6.9% 0.0% 2.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/21/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.5% 31.6% 32.9% 22.1% 23.5% 6.7% 3.1% 2.1% 1.1% 5.0% RIPA Consensus 23.1% 44.3% 37.4% 35.4% 33.4% 22.0% 9.3% 10.8% 2.4% 2.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 20.9% 40.1% 35.8% 30.9% 30.0% 16.9% 7.2% 7.9% 2.0% 3.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 25.6% 39.2% 28.4% 24.4% 24.4% 21.8% 9.6% 9.5% 2.3% 3.1% Logistic Regression 20.7% 49.5% 46.3% 46.3% 42.4% 22.2% 8.9% 12.2% 2.6% 2.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/21/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.6% 26.9% 39.5% 19.5% 21.6% 6.0% 6.0% 2.6% 2.3% 5.9% RIPA Consensus 24.8% 45.3% 38.6% 36.0% 34.8% 23.2% 10.2% 12.7% 3.2% 3.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 23.1% 39.1% 38.9% 30.4% 30.3% 17.5% 8.8% 9.3% 2.8% 4.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 27.6% 40.2% 30.5% 25.2% 25.2% 24.1% 11.4% 12.4% 3.5% 3.8% Logistic Regression 22.1% 50.3% 46.7% 46.7% 44.4% 22.4% 9.1% 13.1% 2.8% 3.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/21/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.8% 31.7% 34.9% 18.2% 26.0% 8.2% 6.1% 4.3% 6.4% 7.7% RIPA Consensus 24.8% 54.1% 47.9% 46.3% 38.4% 33.4% 18.6% 19.8% 6.3% 8.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 21.1% 46.6% 43.5% 36.9% 34.3% 24.9% 14.4% 14.6% 6.3% 8.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 22.9% 45.7% 34.0% 30.9% 18.7% 28.1% 16.4% 18.8% 6.5% 10.5% Logistic Regression 26.7% 62.5% 61.7% 61.7% 58.2% 38.6% 20.9% 20.8% 6.0% 7.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/21/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 23.2% 35.3% 40.2% 27.1% 33.6% 11.9% 11.7% 4.5% 4.3% 8.0% RIPA Consensus 26.2% 54.0% 47.9% 44.5% 42.0% 36.4% 21.1% 22.1% 7.4% 10.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 25.2% 47.7% 45.3% 38.6% 39.1% 28.2% 17.9% 16.2% 6.3% 9.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 25.7% 45.7% 34.7% 27.9% 25.8% 32.2% 19.6% 21.0% 7.8% 13.5% Logistic Regression 26.8% 62.3% 61.0% 61.0% 58.1% 40.6% 22.6% 23.3% 7.0% 8.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                   Fina at 11/20/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.7% 19.9% 11.6% 15.6% 18.5% 6.0% 3.9% 2.4% 3.1% 5.0% RIPA Consensus 8.1% 27.0% 19.5% 17.4% 16.6% 18.3% 7.9% 12.1% 3.2% 4.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.9% 24.6% 16.8% 16.8% 17.2% 14.2% 6.5% 8.8% 3.1% 4.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.8% 19.8% 13.9% 9.8% 9.8% 16.8% 8.1% 11.9% 3.6% 4.9% Logistic Regression 7.4% 34.2% 25.1% 25.1% 23.3% 19.9% 7.7% 12.3% 2.9% 3.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/20/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 7.6% 8.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 2.4% 0.7% 1.2% 5.8% RIPA Consensus 1.2% 8.3% 4.5% 3.2% 2.9% 5.0% 1.5% 8.3% 2.0% 8.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 8.0% 5.7% 2.5% 2.3% 3.8% 1.8% 5.7% 1.7% 7.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 4.6% 2.6% 0.8% 0.8% 4.6% 1.7% 10.8% 3.0% 14.5% Logistic Regression 1.5% 11.9% 6.4% 5.5% 5.0% 5.4% 1.4% 5.8% 1.0% 2.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/20/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.2% 20.6% 13.9% 10.2% 12.8% 6.4% 2.0% 2.8% 11.3% 7.4% RIPA Consensus 5.1% 20.0% 13.2% 10.6% 9.6% 12.0% 4.6% 13.1% 3.7% 9.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.1% 20.2% 13.4% 10.5% 10.6% 10.1% 3.6% 9.7% 6.2% 8.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.5% 14.9% 10.2% 5.1% 4.6% 10.3% 4.5% 14.7% 4.6% 13.4% Logistic Regression 4.8% 25.1% 16.2% 16.2% 14.6% 13.7% 4.6% 11.6% 2.8% 5.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/20/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.4% 30.8% 33.4% 22.9% 31.8% 13.7% 14.1% 4.5% 3.8% 8.2% RIPA Consensus 15.1% 35.8% 27.9% 26.3% 24.5% 22.7% 10.0% 15.5% 4.5% 8.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.2% 34.1% 29.7% 25.1% 26.9% 19.6% 11.3% 11.7% 4.3% 8.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 16.6% 30.0% 20.9% 17.6% 17.6% 20.8% 9.7% 14.0% 4.4% 9.8% Logistic Regression 13.6% 41.6% 34.9% 34.9% 31.4% 24.5% 10.2% 16.9% 4.7% 7.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/19/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.9% 27.3% 40.5% 10.0% 11.7% 16.2% 11.1% 9.1% 7.4% 14.8% RIPA Consensus 7.6% 22.8% 15.2% 13.2% 11.7% 14.8% 5.7% 10.9% 3.1% 7.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.3% 24.3% 23.5% 12.1% 11.7% 15.2% 7.5% 10.3% 4.5% 10.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.5% 18.0% 11.8% 7.9% 7.9% 11.8% 5.0% 10.5% 2.8% 8.1% Logistic Regression 5.6% 27.6% 18.5% 18.5% 15.5% 17.8% 6.4% 11.4% 3.3% 7.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/19/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 24.5% 38.8% 37.0% 40.8% 38.9% 24.7% 20.8% 12.7% 19.8% 16.0% RIPA Consensus 12.2% 31.3% 22.6% 20.6% 18.7% 21.3% 9.2% 14.2% 4.7% 10.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 16.3% 33.8% 27.4% 27.3% 25.4% 22.4% 13.0% 13.6% 9.7% 12.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 15.5% 26.3% 18.1% 14.0% 14.0% 16.9% 7.7% 13.7% 4.1% 9.9% Logistic Regression 9.0% 36.4% 27.1% 27.1% 23.3% 25.7% 10.7% 14.7% 5.3% 10.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/19/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.3% 36.9% 38.7% 17.7% 22.4% 21.7% 17.9% 11.4% 28.2% 18.0% RIPA Consensus 5.2% 22.0% 12.5% 10.3% 8.3% 14.1% 5.2% 15.4% 5.2% 18.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.2% 27.0% 21.2% 12.7% 13.0% 16.6% 9.4% 14.1% 12.9% 18.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 5.4% 16.4% 8.7% 4.3% 3.6% 8.3% 3.3% 19.0% 6.0% 25.9% Logistic Regression 5.0% 27.7% 16.3% 16.3% 13.0% 19.9% 7.1% 11.9% 4.5% 11.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/19/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.4% 24.2% 18.2% 6.9% 4.1% 16.8% 5.9% 4.4% 10.1% 12.7% RIPA Consensus 9.8% 25.6% 15.4% 13.2% 12.0% 15.5% 5.9% 11.0% 3.7% 12.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.9% 25.1% 16.3% 11.1% 9.3% 15.9% 5.8% 8.7% 5.8% 12.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.4% 20.0% 12.4% 7.9% 7.9% 9.4% 3.9% 11.7% 3.2% 13.6% Logistic Regression 8.1% 31.1% 18.5% 18.5% 16.1% 21.6% 7.8% 10.2% 4.3% 11.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fina at 11/18/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 17.6% 36.7% 27.7% 24.0% 18.5% 15.6% 11.9% 10.8% 12.5% 17.8% RIPA Consensus 11.7% 32.6% 20.1% 17.2% 15.5% 24.3% 11.2% 19.6% 8.5% 23.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 13.6% 33.9% 22.6% 19.4% 16.5% 21.4% 11.4% 16.6% 9.7% 21.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.7% 24.8% 14.5% 8.6% 8.6% 14.1% 6.7% 22.6% 8.0% 27.6% Logistic Regression 11.6% 40.3% 25.8% 25.8% 22.5% 34.5% 15.7% 16.6% 8.9% 19.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 11/18/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.5% 44.2% 29.8% 24.8% 25.3% 28.4% 16.3% 20.0% 13.9% 28.3% RIPA Consensus 6.4% 30.9% 17.8% 14.7% 12.2% 23.7% 10.9% 18.0% 7.9% 20.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.4% 35.3% 21.8% 18.0% 16.5% 25.3% 12.7% 18.6% 9.9% 22.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.8% 21.3% 10.2% 4.0% 4.0% 11.0% 5.0% 18.3% 6.3% 19.2% Logistic Regression 8.1% 40.6% 25.4% 25.4% 20.3% 36.5% 16.9% 17.7% 9.6% 21.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Five at 11/18/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.1% 38.0% 15.3% 16.7% 12.5% 26.5% 14.1% 16.1% 9.2% 31.3% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------