Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Seven at 12/19/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 2.2% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.1% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 6.2% 1.8% 4.0% 1.9% 9.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 4.3% 1.3% 2.9% 1.2% 7.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 3.8% 0.8% 7.9% Logistic Regression 0.8% 7.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.4% 12.0% 3.3% 4.2% 2.9% 10.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seven at 12/19/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 6.2% 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 1.4% 0.6% 2.6% 0.7% 4.5% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.8% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 5.2% 1.5% 6.3% 2.5% 15.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 4.6% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 3.9% 1.2% 5.0% 1.8% 11.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 8.1% 2.2% 17.6% Logistic Regression 0.7% 6.9% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 9.6% 2.5% 4.4% 2.7% 13.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Seven at 12/19/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 0.5% 1.2% 0.3% 3.3% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------           Bakung at 12/18/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 2.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 2.1% 0.6% 7.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 5.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 2.4% 0.4% 10.5% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 3.3% 0.6% 1.8% 0.8% 5.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bakung at 12/18/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% 2.1% 0.5% 4.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.4% 0.3% 1.4% 0.4% 4.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.2% 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 4.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 5.1% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 2.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.6% 3.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                       Bakung at 12/17/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                             Bakung at 12/17/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 3.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bakung at 12/17/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.0% 12.2% 4.3% 1.1% 0.7% 5.1% 0.5% 2.9% 0.1% 3.4% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 1.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 1.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.5% 5.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.8% 2.5% 0.3% 1.5% 0.1% 2.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 1.4% Logistic Regression 0.6% 2.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.3% 1.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bakung at 12/17/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.3% 17.7% 11.0% 3.1% 1.6% 8.0% 2.4% 6.8% 0.0% 4.5% RIPA Consensus 11.6% 10.1% 7.8% 7.8% 7.4% 4.2% 1.6% 1.0% 0.4% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.5% 12.6% 8.8% 6.2% 5.4% 5.4% 1.8% 2.9% 0.2% 2.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 17.8% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 2.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 5.4% 10.2% 5.6% 5.6% 4.8% 6.1% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 2.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bakung at 12/16/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 7.1% 4.3% 1.5% 0.5% 3.9% 2.6% 4.1% 0.5% 4.0% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 3.5% 1.8% 0.8% 0.4% 2.1% 1.0% 1.6% 0.3% 2.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% Logistic Regression 0.7% 2.8% 1.1% 0.8% 0.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 1.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bakung at 12/16/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.9% 9.2% 7.3% 2.7% 1.5% 3.7% 4.1% 5.5% 0.3% 2.7% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 2.4% 0.7% 1.8% 0.6% 2.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 4.6% 3.1% 1.5% 0.9% 2.8% 1.8% 3.0% 0.4% 2.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 2.4% 0.4% 2.5% Logistic Regression 0.6% 4.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.9% 4.3% 1.1% 1.3% 0.7% 3.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------               Bakung at 12/16/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.8% 9.9% 4.9% 2.7% 2.4% 8.4% 4.1% 6.6% 1.7% 6.7% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.0% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 2.3% 0.6% 2.5% 0.7% 2.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 5.3% 2.5% 1.6% 1.4% 4.3% 1.7% 3.8% 1.0% 4.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 3.9% 0.8% 3.1% Logistic Regression 0.8% 4.8% 1.7% 1.4% 1.1% 3.9% 0.8% 1.1% 0.6% 2.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bakung at 12/16/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 7.3% 4.1% 2.5% 1.1% 5.1% 2.4% 4.3% 1.2% 7.6% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 3.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2% 2.9% 0.7% 3.0% 0.8% 2.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.8% 2.4% 1.7% 1.1% 3.6% 1.2% 3.4% 0.9% 4.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 1.6% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 0.4% 4.5% 0.9% 3.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 5.7% 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% 4.6% 1.0% 1.5% 0.7% 2.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bakung at 12/15/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 2.7% 4.6% 0.8% 0.3% 2.8% 4.0% 3.0% 0.5% 4.4% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.1% 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 1.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.9% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.7% 0.3% 2.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 1.6% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 1.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bakung at 12/15/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 2.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 2.3% 2.1% 3.0% 0.9% 4.2% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.1% 0.8% 1.3% 0.3% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1.5% Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bakung at 12/15/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 5.0% 6.0% 1.9% 0.5% 5.8% 3.0% 3.0% 1.4% 5.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.9% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% 2.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.4% 2.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% -0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bakung at 12/15/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 8.8% 12.4% 1.9% 2.4% 7.9% 4.0% 6.3% 2.8% 9.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 3.1% 4.2% 0.6% 0.8% 2.7% 1.3% 2.1% 0.9% 3.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bakung at 12/14/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.9% 9.5% 5.8% 2.8% 3.3% 9.5% 1.4% 1.6% 0.5% 2.7% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 2.1% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.8% 4.6% 2.9% 1.8% 2.0% 3.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.8% 2.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bakung at 12/14/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.7% 21.3% 25.1% 13.6% 13.3% 13.8% 3.5% 4.6% 2.0% 2.6% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bakung at 12/14/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.6% 28.3% 17.1% 11.2% 15.2% 9.1% 4.5% 8.6% 3.4% 4.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bakung at 12/14/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 28.4% 35.5% 35.6% 25.9% 19.7% 16.4% 12.4% 4.8% 2.2% 0.3% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------           Bakung at 12/13/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 19.3% 33.7% 30.0% 29.1% 13.9% 20.1% 13.6% 13.0% 12.0% 10.3% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Bakung at 12/12/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.5% 32.3% 16.6% 15.5% 10.9% 16.4% 8.1% 9.5% 4.8% 15.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   07s at 12/12/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.8% 20.2% 16.4% 2.6% 1.4% 7.0% 5.9% 5.3% 1.6% 10.6% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------