Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Eight intensity image current Eight RI diff image

 


Eight at 12/17/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
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Eight at 12/17/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
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Eight at 12/17/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
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Eight at 12/16/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
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Eight at 12/16/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2%
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Eight at 12/16/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% -0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.7% 4.1% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 1.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
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Eight at 12/16/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.0% 1.1% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 5.8% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 3.3% 0.7% 2.3% 0.4% 1.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.2% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 2.4% 0.7% 1.8% 0.2% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 2.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 1.3% 0.4% 3.2% 0.3% 2.5%
Logistic Regression 1.2% 8.9% 2.8% 2.3% 2.2% 5.3% 1.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.7%
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Eight at 12/15/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.2% 5.9% 3.9% 1.2% 1.0% 2.3% 1.5% 3.2% 0.1% 3.8% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 8.6% 3.3% 2.4% 2.1% 5.5% 1.4% 6.6% 1.7% 6.0%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 7.7% 3.5% 2.0% 1.7% 4.4% 1.4% 5.5% 1.1% 5.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 3.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 2.4% 0.7% 9.5% 2.1% 9.5%
Logistic Regression 1.4% 13.4% 5.3% 4.5% 3.9% 8.6% 2.1% 3.8% 1.3% 2.5%
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Eight at 12/15/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.8% 13.1% 13.1% 1.5% 1.8% 6.5% 4.2% 8.7% 0.3% 1.7% RIPA Consensus 5.7% 29.5% 16.3% 13.2% 12.0% 23.6% 10.3% 15.5% 6.1% 11.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.7% 24.0% 15.2% 9.3% 8.6% 17.9% 8.3% 13.2% 4.1% 8.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.7% 20.3% 10.2% 4.1% 3.7% 13.3% 5.9% 18.8% 6.1% 14.3%
Logistic Regression 6.7% 38.6% 22.4% 22.4% 20.3% 33.9% 14.8% 12.1% 6.0% 8.8%
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Eight at 12/15/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 9.3% 26.0% 20.6% 9.7% 7.9% 14.5% 11.1% 13.7% 2.2% 3.3% RIPA Consensus 5.0% 31.2% 17.0% 14.2% 13.3% 26.1% 11.1% 23.0% 10.4% 16.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.4% 29.4% 18.2% 12.7% 11.5% 22.2% 11.1% 19.9% 7.6% 12.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.3% 22.4% 10.9% 5.3% 5.3% 16.4% 6.7% 28.2% 10.8% 21.1%
Logistic Regression 5.7% 40.0% 23.1% 23.1% 21.4% 35.8% 15.5% 17.8% 10.0% 12.0%
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Eight at 12/15/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 6.6% 21.8% 17.6% 16.5% 9.8% 14.6% 10.5% 14.3% 1.6% 6.5% RIPA Consensus 2.1% 19.4% 9.7% 8.0% 6.4% 16.8% 7.0% 14.7% 5.9% 10.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.6% 20.1% 12.3% 10.8% 7.5% 16.0% 8.2% 14.5% 4.4% 9.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 10.5% 4.6% 2.2% 0.6% 7.4% 3.5% 16.7% 5.6% 10.7%
Logistic Regression 3.0% 28.2% 14.8% 13.9% 12.2% 26.2% 10.6% 12.7% 6.2% 10.2%
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Eight at 12/14/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 5.0% 23.8% 10.7% 10.8% 9.5% 9.3% 7.1% 4.6% 0.9% 4.7% RIPA Consensus 7.6% 47.9% 31.0% 25.1% 25.1% 45.5% 26.8% 43.2% 24.9% 40.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.7% 39.8% 24.2% 20.3% 19.8% 33.4% 20.2% 30.3% 16.9% 28.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.7% 38.3% 21.1% 9.2% 9.2% 35.8% 21.6% 49.3% 25.2% 47.1%
Logistic Regression 8.5% 57.5% 40.9% 40.9% 40.9% 55.1% 32.1% 37.2% 24.7% 33.6%
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Eight at 12/14/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 16.3% 32.8% 32.8% 12.3% 11.5% 24.1% 10.7% 15.6% 2.0% 9.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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