Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Nine at 01/07/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 3.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 4.3% 1.3% 1.9% 0.9% 0.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 3.0% 0.9% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.3% 4.0% 1.1% 0.8% 0.7% 8.4% 2.4% 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                             Nine at 01/06/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 01/06/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/06/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 2.3% 0.5% 4.0% 1.3% 10.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% 0.3% 2.6% 0.9% 7.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 5.2% 1.3% 12.7% Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 4.4% 1.0% 2.7% 1.4% 9.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/06/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.2% 1.5% 1.1% 0.9% 5.8% 1.8% 6.8% 2.9% 7.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 3.9% 1.3% 4.8% 1.9% 5.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 8.3% 2.4% 6.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 7.5% 2.6% 2.1% 1.7% 10.6% 3.1% 5.2% 3.4% 8.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/05/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 1.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/05/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.9% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/05/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/05/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 2.0% 0.0% 1.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/04/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.4% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/04/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.5% 3.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 2.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/04/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 7.1% 2.2% 0.5% 0.3% 2.5% 0.6% 9.7% 0.0% 2.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Grant at 01/04/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 4.8% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.8% 0.3% 7.1% 0.0% 3.8% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 5.0% 2.2% 1.8% 1.4% 7.0% 2.8% 5.4% 2.5% 5.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.9% 4.9% 2.0% 1.3% 1.0% 5.2% 1.9% 6.0% 1.6% 4.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 7.9% 2.3% 4.1% Logistic Regression 1.5% 9.1% 4.0% 3.2% 2.4% 13.3% 4.9% 3.0% 2.7% 6.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/03/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 4.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 1.4% 0.1% 1.6% 0.0% 2.4% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 4.3% 1.6% 7.4% 3.2% 8.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% 3.2% 1.0% 5.4% 2.1% 6.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 12.0% 4.2% 10.4% Logistic Regression 0.8% 5.3% 2.3% 1.6% 1.3% 8.1% 2.8% 2.8% 2.2% 6.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/03/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 8.1% 1.3% 1.0% 0.2% 5.4% 0.3% 4.6% 0.0% 4.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/03/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 4.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 0.2% 2.4% 0.0% 3.2% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 4.7% 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 6.6% 2.8% 10.4% 4.7% 7.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 4.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.2% 4.8% 1.9% 7.7% 3.1% 5.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 2.0% 1.9% 17.7% 7.0% 8.7% Logistic Regression 1.5% 8.1% 3.3% 2.5% 2.5% 11.2% 3.7% 3.1% 2.5% 5.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/03/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.4% 10.3% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 6.4% 0.4% 2.0% 0.1% 5.4% RIPA Consensus 1.1% 5.6% 2.7% 2.2% 2.2% 7.1% 3.4% 12.0% 5.8% 8.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 7.1% 2.6% 1.5% 1.4% 6.8% 2.3% 8.7% 3.9% 7.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 2.3% 2.1% 19.6% 8.1% 9.4% Logistic Regression 1.6% 9.6% 4.4% 3.5% 3.5% 11.9% 4.6% 4.5% 3.5% 6.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/02/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.9% 14.5% 2.7% 10.2% 3.0% 17.0% 0.6% 7.9% 0.2% 8.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/02/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.6% 3.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 4.0% 0.4% 4.4% 0.0% 6.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/02/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 3.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 2.7% 0.6% 6.8% 0.0% 6.4% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.7% 3.6% 1.2% 6.1% 2.5% 5.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 2.8% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 3.2% 1.0% 6.3% 1.6% 5.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 9.7% 3.3% 5.8% Logistic Regression 0.4% 4.4% 1.7% 1.2% 1.1% 6.5% 1.9% 2.4% 1.6% 4.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/02/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.2% 1.8% 0.0% 3.5% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 2.3% 0.7% 4.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 2.1% 0.4% 3.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.6% 0.9% 6.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 2.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.5% 2.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/01/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.6% 0.0% 2.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Grant at 01/01/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 2.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 01/01/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.8% 0.0% 3.4% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/31/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.1% 8.1% 7.6% 0.6% 0.6% 5.0% 1.4% 5.5% 0.0% 2.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                     Grant at 12/31/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.2% 12.3% 8.1% 0.9% 0.4% 2.2% 0.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/31/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 6.4% 11.6% 7.5% 1.4% 0.7% 3.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.3% 4.0% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/31/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.3% 15.4% 13.8% 2.5% 1.1% 3.4% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.0% 5.3% 4.7% 0.8% 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/30/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.0% 16.0% 20.8% 3.1% 1.1% 4.0% 0.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/30/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.4% 26.2% 18.5% 10.6% 4.5% 3.9% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.7% 8.7% 6.1% 3.5% 1.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/30/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.5% 20.6% 8.9% 6.0% 2.0% 3.0% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 6.8% 2.9% 2.0% 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/30/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.4% 16.8% 1.0% 4.7% 1.0% 3.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.8% 6.0% 0.5% 1.5% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/29/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.8% 20.5% 3.8% 2.2% 0.5% 3.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/29/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 120 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.5% 26.8% 3.1% 2.9% 0.7% 3.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/29/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 20.7% 37.5% 18.6% 13.4% 1.8% 5.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 22.1% 10.6% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 21.6% 19.5% 12.5% 4.4% 0.6% 1.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 35.7% 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.6% 8.8% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/29/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 105 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 25.8% 36.2% 28.5% 16.3% 2.3% 9.7% 0.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.6% RIPA Consensus 30.5% 26.1% 24.3% 24.2% 22.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 28.9% 29.5% 25.7% 21.5% 16.0% 3.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 47.0% 33.9% 33.9% 33.9% 33.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 14.0% 18.4% 14.8% 14.5% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/28/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 11.3% 23.0% 14.0% 5.7% 1.8% 11.9% 1.6% 7.1% 0.0% 4.4% RIPA Consensus 14.6% 29.4% 27.6% 27.6% 27.4% 18.6% 8.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 13.5% 27.2% 23.0% 20.3% 18.9% 16.3% 5.8% 8.3% 0.0% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 18.4% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 22.1% 9.6% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 10.9% 30.8% 27.2% 27.2% 26.9% 15.1% 6.4% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/28/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.5% 24.0% 22.0% 6.5% 2.8% 16.4% 4.2% 11.3% 0.2% 6.9% RIPA Consensus 10.9% 18.5% 15.8% 15.1% 14.3% 10.5% 4.4% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.7% 20.3% 17.9% 12.1% 10.4% 12.4% 4.3% 8.2% 0.0% 2.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.0% 14.6% 12.8% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 5.3% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 8.8% 22.4% 18.9% 18.9% 17.4% 9.7% 3.5% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/28/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 25.6% 34.9% 14.6% 19.0% 12.5% 24.6% 8.9% 22.9% 0.3% 11.4% RIPA Consensus 28.4% 46.0% 44.9% 44.9% 43.3% 28.3% 15.6% 12.9% 0.0% 1.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 27.5% 42.3% 34.7% 36.2% 33.0% 27.0% 13.3% 16.2% 0.0% 5.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 31.3% 38.2% 35.8% 35.8% 35.8% 26.3% 15.2% 12.0% 0.0% 0.8% Logistic Regression 25.6% 53.9% 53.9% 53.9% 50.7% 30.2% 16.0% 13.9% 0.0% 2.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/28/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.1% 23.1% 13.0% 3.7% 2.8% 17.3% 5.3% 15.9% 0.3% 11.4% RIPA Consensus 8.5% 18.9% 15.7% 15.7% 15.0% 13.4% 5.9% 10.0% 3.3% 2.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.0% 20.3% 14.8% 11.7% 10.9% 14.7% 5.6% 11.9% 2.3% 5.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.3% 13.1% 13.1% 13.1% 13.1% 11.8% 6.1% 12.6% 4.1% 2.4% Logistic Regression 7.7% 24.8% 18.4% 18.3% 17.0% 15.0% 5.7% 7.4% 2.5% 2.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/27/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.4% 12.7% 9.1% 4.9% 3.3% 11.5% 3.5% 8.7% 0.3% 6.9% RIPA Consensus 9.4% 18.8% 15.1% 15.1% 14.9% 11.6% 5.0% 9.5% 3.3% 2.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.7% 16.8% 13.1% 11.7% 11.0% 11.5% 4.4% 9.2% 2.3% 4.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.9% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% 17.1% 10.3% 5.5% 13.2% 4.3% 2.4% Logistic Regression 7.0% 20.6% 13.2% 13.1% 12.7% 12.8% 4.4% 5.9% 2.3% 2.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/27/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.3% 11.1% 18.8% 2.9% 1.0% 8.0% 4.3% 12.6% 0.3% 5.1% RIPA Consensus 2.9% 7.8% 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 5.5% 2.1% 7.0% 2.1% 3.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.0% 8.9% 9.6% 4.0% 3.2% 6.3% 2.8% 8.8% 1.5% 3.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.3% 4.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 4.5% 2.2% 9.9% 2.9% 3.6% Logistic Regression 2.6% 10.8% 6.3% 5.7% 5.3% 6.4% 2.0% 4.0% 1.4% 2.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/27/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.0% 22.2% 17.7% 4.7% 5.6% 15.1% 6.6% 13.6% 1.6% 10.5% RIPA Consensus 4.1% 11.3% 7.9% 7.7% 7.1% 7.4% 2.8% 6.2% 1.9% 3.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.3% 14.9% 11.1% 6.6% 6.6% 10.0% 4.1% 8.6% 1.7% 5.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.2% 6.9% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 5.3% 2.6% 7.9% 2.1% 3.3% Logistic Regression 4.0% 15.7% 9.7% 9.1% 8.0% 9.6% 3.1% 4.5% 1.6% 3.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/27/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.5% 16.2% 16.2% 1.2% 1.1% 12.5% 6.6% 10.3% 0.7% 7.4% RIPA Consensus 3.4% 8.5% 5.9% 5.6% 5.4% 5.6% 2.0% 5.5% 1.5% 3.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 11.1% 9.3% 4.1% 4.0% 7.8% 3.5% 7.0% 1.2% 4.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.7% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 4.4% 2.1% 7.6% 1.9% 3.4% Logistic Regression 3.0% 11.7% 6.5% 5.9% 5.5% 6.8% 2.0% 3.3% 1.1% 2.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/26/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 12.1% 18.7% 7.7% 3.2% 11.3% 9.1% 6.7% 0.7% 11.9% RIPA Consensus 5.2% 9.2% 6.5% 6.2% 6.2% 6.9% 2.9% 4.8% 1.5% 2.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 10.1% 10.5% 6.7% 5.1% 8.3% 4.9% 5.4% 1.2% 5.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 7.0% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 5.6% 3.3% 6.9% 1.8% 2.2% Logistic Regression 3.5% 11.7% 6.4% 5.8% 5.7% 8.1% 2.5% 2.7% 1.2% 2.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/26/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.7% 15.5% 9.7% 2.8% 1.8% 12.8% 5.4% 9.5% 0.7% 8.5% RIPA Consensus 2.9% 11.0% 6.5% 6.2% 6.0% 13.9% 5.9% 20.4% 9.9% 18.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.5% 12.5% 7.5% 5.0% 4.5% 13.5% 5.7% 16.7% 6.8% 15.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.8% 7.8% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% 10.7% 5.6% 30.9% 14.2% 26.1% Logistic Regression 2.1% 14.2% 7.3% 6.8% 6.3% 17.2% 6.3% 9.8% 5.7% 11.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/26/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.2% 8.1% 5.7% 2.6% 1.5% 6.9% 2.7% 7.2% 0.2% 8.0% RIPA Consensus 1.0% 5.3% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 6.0% 1.9% 12.3% 4.8% 17.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 6.2% 3.7% 2.5% 2.0% 6.3% 2.1% 10.6% 3.2% 14.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.1% 2.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 3.6% 1.5% 19.3% 6.9% 26.4% Logistic Regression 1.0% 7.7% 3.3% 2.9% 2.4% 8.4% 2.3% 5.3% 2.7% 9.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------               Grant at 12/26/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.8% 14.8% 7.4% 3.8% 2.2% 11.8% 4.9% 14.4% 0.2% 13.7% RIPA Consensus 2.2% 5.1% 3.0% 2.7% 2.4% 4.7% 1.7% 5.0% 1.8% 3.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.7% 8.3% 4.4% 3.0% 2.3% 7.0% 2.8% 8.1% 1.2% 6.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.4% 2.6% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 1.8% 1.1% 7.9% 2.1% 2.9% Logistic Regression 2.1% 7.7% 3.6% 3.1% 2.6% 7.6% 2.4% 2.2% 1.5% 3.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/25/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 8.7% 3.8% 1.6% 1.2% 6.9% 1.1% 2.7% 0.1% 6.3% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 2.6% 1.3% 1.1% 0.9% 2.8% 0.9% 4.8% 1.6% 5.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.0% 4.6% 2.1% 1.2% 1.0% 4.1% 0.9% 4.1% 1.1% 5.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 8.0% 2.1% 6.4% Logistic Regression 1.0% 4.4% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 5.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.1% 3.7% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/25/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.6% 16.5% 15.1% 7.1% 4.7% 11.2% 5.7% 10.1% 1.1% 6.7% RIPA Consensus 0.9% 4.1% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 5.9% 2.3% 15.0% 6.9% 16.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.4% 8.2% 6.3% 3.3% 2.4% 7.6% 3.4% 13.3% 5.0% 13.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 1.8% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 2.9% 1.6% 26.1% 11.1% 24.1% Logistic Regression 1.0% 6.5% 2.9% 2.3% 2.0% 8.9% 2.9% 3.9% 2.8% 8.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/25/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.9% 25.3% 21.1% 11.3% 8.9% 25.6% 8.6% 15.4% 0.9% 11.2% RIPA Consensus 3.0% 14.2% 8.0% 6.9% 5.0% 17.3% 8.8% 16.4% 9.1% 16.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 7.3% 17.9% 12.3% 8.3% 6.3% 20.0% 8.7% 16.0% 6.3% 14.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.5% 8.2% 3.8% 1.9% 1.7% 6.1% 3.5% 23.6% 9.6% 17.3% Logistic Regression 3.6% 20.2% 12.2% 11.8% 8.3% 28.5% 14.1% 9.2% 8.6% 15.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                 Grant at 12/25/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.8% 10.6% 10.0% 7.1% 1.5% 7.1% 1.7% 9.5% 1.3% 10.2% RIPA Consensus 2.1% 6.8% 3.4% 3.1% 2.8% 5.8% 2.1% 5.1% 1.9% 4.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.3% 8.0% 5.5% 4.4% 2.3% 6.2% 2.0% 6.5% 1.7% 6.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.1% 3.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 1.2% 7.5% 1.9% 3.5% Logistic Regression 2.2% 9.9% 4.6% 4.1% 3.4% 9.5% 3.1% 2.7% 1.9% 5.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/24/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 3.7% 1.3% 0.9% 0.1% 2.3% 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 4.9% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 2.1% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 2.2% 0.7% 3.0% 0.9% 2.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 2.6% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 2.1% 0.4% 2.4% 0.6% 3.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 5.1% 1.2% 3.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 3.6% 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 3.7% 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 2.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/24/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.4% 16.3% 4.8% 1.0% 0.7% 9.8% 0.9% 3.0% 0.7% 10.3% RIPA Consensus 1.6% 4.1% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 4.5% 1.8% 5.5% 2.1% 3.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.5% 8.1% 2.9% 1.3% 1.2% 6.2% 1.4% 4.7% 1.6% 5.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 1.4% 1.1% 9.2% 2.8% 2.6% Logistic Regression 1.7% 6.7% 2.8% 2.2% 2.1% 7.5% 2.4% 1.9% 1.5% 3.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/24/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.6% 21.6% 12.0% 3.5% 3.3% 13.8% 4.7% 15.4% 1.4% 9.1% RIPA Consensus 4.7% 19.6% 12.1% 11.1% 7.5% 19.4% 11.5% 8.2% 6.7% 7.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.3% 20.2% 12.0% 8.5% 6.0% 17.5% 9.2% 10.6% 4.9% 8.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.9% 10.0% 4.5% 2.8% 1.4% 4.3% 3.2% 12.2% 4.3% 3.2% Logistic Regression 6.6% 29.1% 19.6% 19.4% 13.5% 34.4% 19.8% 4.3% 9.1% 12.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/24/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.7% 12.5% 9.0% 6.0% 1.9% 10.5% 1.1% 8.7% 0.2% 6.6% RIPA Consensus 2.2% 11.1% 6.2% 5.4% 3.8% 11.9% 5.9% 8.3% 4.2% 5.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 11.5% 7.1% 5.5% 3.1% 11.4% 4.3% 8.4% 2.9% 6.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.2% 4.7% 1.8% 1.1% 1.1% 2.7% 1.8% 12.0% 4.1% 4.0% Logistic Regression 3.2% 17.4% 10.7% 9.7% 6.5% 21.2% 10.0% 4.5% 4.4% 7.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/23/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 5.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.4% 1.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 4.0% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 2.3% 0.8% 6.0% 2.2% 7.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 4.2% 1.4% 6.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 10.9% 3.5% 11.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 3.3% 1.3% 0.9% 0.7% 4.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.8% 2.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/23/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 5.0% 3.2% 0.4% 0.2% 3.6% 0.5% 3.3% 0.3% 3.5% RIPA Consensus 0.4% 2.8% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 3.4% 1.2% 5.7% 2.0% 4.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 3.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.5% 3.4% 0.9% 4.8% 1.4% 4.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 9.6% 3.0% 6.5% Logistic Regression 0.8% 5.0% 2.2% 1.6% 1.3% 6.1% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 2.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Grant at 12/23/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.9% 16.5% 6.8% 5.3% 3.0% 13.4% 3.6% 8.6% 0.4% 6.9% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 6.4% 3.4% 2.9% 2.4% 7.6% 3.4% 7.4% 3.3% 4.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.9% 9.7% 4.5% 3.6% 2.6% 9.5% 3.5% 7.7% 2.3% 5.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.9% 2.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 2.4% 1.8% 11.2% 3.7% 3.6% Logistic Regression 2.1% 9.9% 5.1% 4.4% 3.5% 12.9% 5.1% 3.5% 2.9% 5.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 12/23/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.1% 17.6% 6.9% 4.2% 3.1% 14.6% 4.4% 13.3% 1.9% 9.5% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 6.2% 3.1% 2.7% 2.0% 7.7% 3.3% 6.8% 3.2% 6.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 3.1% 10.0% 4.3% 3.2% 2.3% 10.0% 3.6% 8.9% 2.7% 7.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 2.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 1.3% 0.9% 9.5% 3.0% 5.4% Logistic Regression 1.8% 10.3% 5.4% 4.7% 3.2% 14.1% 5.7% 4.1% 3.4% 6.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 12/22/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.1% 13.9% 9.5% 11.9% 3.9% 11.7% 3.8% 8.7% 1.0% 6.8% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 2.7% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% 3.4% 1.2% 5.1% 2.0% 3.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 6.4% 4.0% 4.7% 1.9% 6.1% 2.0% 6.3% 1.6% 4.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 8.5% 2.6% 3.9% Logistic Regression 1.0% 4.7% 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 6.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.3% 3.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 12/22/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 8.8% 8.3% 1.1% 0.6% 4.6% 2.6% 5.9% 0.4% 7.6% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.4% 0.4% 1.9% 0.6% 2.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 3.8% 3.1% 0.5% 0.3% 2.4% 1.1% 3.2% 0.5% 3.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 3.1% 0.7% 2.2% Logistic Regression 0.4% 2.2% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 2.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.5% 1.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 12/22/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 21.2% 10.1% 6.4% 4.6% 16.4% 5.5% 16.8% 3.5% 18.6% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 2.8% 0.9% 2.4% 0.8% 2.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 8.7% 4.1% 2.7% 2.0% 7.3% 2.4% 7.2% 1.7% 7.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 3.7% 0.9% 1.5% Logistic Regression 0.9% 4.5% 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 5.2% 1.4% 1.1% 0.8% 2.6% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 12/22/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.7% 18.4% 9.0% 3.1% 2.4% 15.1% 3.8% 12.3% 4.2% 16.8% RIPA Consensus 0.8% 2.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% 2.6% 0.9% 3.7% 1.2% 2.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.4% 7.8% 3.6% 1.5% 1.3% 6.7% 1.8% 6.5% 2.2% 7.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 6.1% 1.6% 2.9% Logistic Regression 1.0% 4.5% 1.7% 1.3% 1.1% 4.7% 1.3% 1.3% 0.9% 2.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 12/21/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.1% 10.8% 5.9% 8.8% 2.9% 5.1% 2.4% 7.8% 1.8% 13.5% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 2.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 2.1% 0.6% 3.9% 1.2% 2.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.0% 5.1% 2.6% 3.4% 1.4% 3.0% 1.2% 5.1% 1.4% 6.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 6.5% 1.8% 3.4% Logistic Regression 0.8% 4.1% 1.6% 1.2% 1.1% 3.6% 0.9% 1.2% 0.7% 2.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 12/21/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.6% 18.6% 16.3% 3.9% 2.1% 6.8% 2.1% 5.9% 2.3% 22.0% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 4.6% 2.4% 1.7% 1.5% 4.5% 1.8% 5.6% 2.1% 2.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.1% 9.3% 7.0% 2.4% 1.7% 5.3% 1.8% 5.7% 2.1% 9.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.1% 1.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 2.0% 1.3% 9.2% 2.9% 2.6% Logistic Regression 1.7% 7.5% 3.6% 2.8% 2.6% 7.1% 2.2% 2.0% 1.3% 2.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 12/21/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 9.3% 27.2% 27.0% 7.9% 7.3% 22.8% 6.9% 13.4% 3.9% 22.5% RIPA Consensus 10.0% 24.2% 16.7% 15.0% 12.1% 23.2% 14.5% 11.7% 7.5% 5.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.7% 25.2% 20.1% 12.6% 10.5% 23.0% 11.9% 12.2% 6.2% 11.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 9.1% 15.1% 10.2% 7.0% 4.0% 9.5% 7.2% 16.9% 6.5% 2.5% Logistic Regression 10.9% 33.4% 23.1% 23.0% 20.2% 36.8% 21.8% 6.5% 8.4% 8.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 12/21/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.4% 38.0% 41.9% 18.6% 17.2% 27.6% 18.3% 25.4% 4.3% 18.1% RIPA Consensus 9.3% 27.7% 20.2% 19.1% 13.7% 26.2% 17.0% 12.4% 7.8% 5.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 11.6% 31.1% 27.4% 18.9% 14.8% 26.6% 17.4% 16.7% 6.5% 9.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 6.4% 15.8% 8.8% 6.5% 2.6% 9.5% 6.5% 14.1% 5.3% 2.0% Logistic Regression 12.2% 39.7% 31.6% 31.6% 24.7% 42.9% 27.5% 10.7% 10.2% 9.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 12/20/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 14.0% 35.4% 34.1% 16.2% 9.7% 27.2% 11.1% 22.8% 12.1% 13.7% RIPA Consensus 1.7% 12.1% 7.2% 6.1% 4.0% 16.5% 9.3% 10.9% 6.3% 5.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 5.8% 19.8% 16.1% 9.4% 5.8% 20.0% 9.9% 14.8% 8.2% 8.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.4% 3.9% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 3.1% 2.2% 14.0% 5.3% 3.5% Logistic Regression 3.1% 20.3% 13.2% 11.8% 7.6% 30.0% 16.4% 7.9% 7.4% 8.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 12/20/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.2% 23.9% 11.0% 6.2% 3.1% 12.4% 1.9% 5.0% 1.1% 14.6% RIPA Consensus 1.8% 7.9% 4.4% 3.3% 3.1% 11.0% 5.8% 11.4% 5.8% 4.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.9% 13.2% 6.6% 4.2% 3.1% 11.4% 4.5% 9.3% 4.2% 7.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.1% 3.0% 1.9% 0.9% 0.9% 4.4% 3.7% 17.6% 7.3% 3.3% Logistic Regression 2.5% 12.8% 7.0% 5.7% 5.3% 17.6% 7.9% 5.3% 4.4% 4.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 12/20/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 26.6% 33.7% 37.1% 11.5% 17.8% 25.3% 21.1% 23.9% 5.6% 18.4% RIPA Consensus 5.6% 25.3% 17.3% 15.3% 12.3% 33.0% 25.1% 21.9% 19.3% 12.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 12.6% 28.0% 23.9% 14.0% 14.1% 30.3% 23.7% 22.5% 14.7% 14.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.2% 13.2% 7.3% 3.6% 2.7% 11.6% 9.9% 28.5% 15.3% 6.4% Logistic Regression 8.0% 37.3% 27.4% 27.0% 22.0% 54.3% 40.3% 15.3% 23.4% 18.5% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                     Nine at 12/20/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.8% 28.2% 26.5% 19.6% 17.6% 26.4% 17.2% 23.2% 6.2% 17.0% RIPA Consensus 5.5% 25.6% 17.0% 15.9% 13.4% 31.9% 23.1% 17.0% 16.3% 12.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.2% 26.4% 20.2% 17.1% 14.8% 30.0% 21.1% 19.0% 12.9% 14.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 3.6% 13.6% 7.4% 5.2% 5.2% 11.9% 9.6% 22.9% 11.1% 6.1% Logistic Regression 7.4% 37.6% 26.7% 26.6% 21.7% 51.9% 36.7% 11.1% 21.5% 19.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 12/19/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.2% 17.5% 12.1% 4.1% 6.7% 11.8% 5.6% 15.3% 7.5% 13.3% RIPA Consensus 1.4% 10.2% 5.3% 4.1% 3.6% 15.1% 8.2% 15.8% 9.7% 11.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.6% 12.6% 7.5% 4.1% 4.6% 14.0% 7.3% 15.6% 8.9% 12.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 3.9% 1.8% 0.7% 0.7% 4.3% 3.4% 20.1% 9.0% 8.5% Logistic Regression 2.1% 16.6% 8.8% 7.6% 6.5% 25.9% 13.0% 11.5% 10.4% 14.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 12/19/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.6% 5.9% 1.7% 0.9% 0.4% 6.5% 1.0% 3.9% 0.5% 18.2% RIPA Consensus 1.3% 8.1% 3.7% 3.1% 2.9% 13.6% 6.3% 16.1% 9.4% 16.5% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.3% 7.3% 3.0% 2.3% 2.0% 11.2% 4.5% 12.0% 6.4% 17.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 2.8% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 5.0% 3.6% 23.2% 10.8% 16.6% Logistic Regression 1.8% 13.4% 5.9% 4.9% 4.5% 22.2% 9.1% 9.0% 7.9% 16.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Nine at 12/19/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.1% 7.1% 4.7% 1.5% 1.3% 5.5% 3.0% 16.4% 2.7% 20.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------           Nine at 12/18/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.5% 5.9% 5.5% 0.6% 0.3% 6.1% 2.0% 7.5% 1.3% 15.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------