Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)                                   Ten at 01/01/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.3% 16.6% 5.9% 3.1% 2.9% 6.1% 2.9% 2.6% 1.2% 1.9% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------     Ten at 01/01/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.7% 21.3% 12.4% 4.4% 2.3% 9.6% 6.7% 11.7% 3.2% 1.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 01/01/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 9.7% 3.9% 2.8% 4.3% 2.2% 2.5% 4.4% 3.0% 0.8% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.6% 3.9% 1.1% 1.2% 0.6% 0.7% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 5.2% 1.9% 1.3% 1.8% 3.3% 1.5% 2.3% 1.4% 0.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.6% 5.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.2% 7.5% 2.0% 2.1% 1.1% 1.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                                                           Hayley at 12/31/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 2.1% 0.1% 2.1% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hayley at 12/31/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 2.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hayley at 12/31/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.8% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hayley at 12/30/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hayley at 12/30/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 5.6% 5.1% 1.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 2.8% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.6% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.6% 2.9% 2.2% 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.5% 2.6% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hayley at 12/30/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.3% 4.7% 6.7% 0.9% 0.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 1.2% RIPA Consensus 3.1% 3.6% 2.2% 1.9% 1.6% 1.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 2.8% 4.0% 3.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 4.7% 3.1% 2.3% 1.8% 1.8% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.4% 4.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hayley at 12/30/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.6% 20.9% 11.5% 6.3% 8.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 21.0% 15.8% 13.2% 13.2% 13.1% 11.3% 1.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.5% 17.5% 12.6% 10.8% 11.5% 7.7% 1.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 35.0% 19.6% 19.6% 19.6% 19.6% 18.4% 2.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.0% 12.0% 6.7% 6.7% 6.6% 4.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hayley at 12/29/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 32.7% 38.2% 28.6% 25.1% 21.8% 2.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 26.9% 19.7% 17.0% 17.0% 17.0% 9.8% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 28.8% 25.8% 20.8% 19.7% 18.6% 7.3% 1.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 46.2% 28.1% 28.1% 28.1% 28.1% 16.6% 2.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.6% 11.3% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 3.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hayley at 12/29/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 21.8% 41.1% 33.9% 41.9% 35.7% 7.7% 1.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hayley at 12/29/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.3% 32.9% 28.4% 24.1% 31.1% 9.4% 4.4% 5.8% 3.3% 1.7% RIPA Consensus 34.1% 50.4% 40.8% 38.9% 38.9% 25.8% 11.9% 8.7% 2.6% 3.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 27.1% 44.5% 36.6% 33.9% 36.3% 20.3% 9.3% 7.7% 2.8% 3.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 42.2% 47.1% 36.9% 33.2% 33.2% 22.0% 10.9% 7.5% 1.5% 2.1% Logistic Regression 26.0% 53.7% 44.6% 44.6% 44.6% 29.5% 12.8% 10.0% 3.7% 5.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Hayley at 12/29/25 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.9% 37.5% 40.1% 16.6% 23.3% 15.4% 5.8% 6.0% 0.6% 2.9% RIPA Consensus 34.2% 57.1% 49.4% 49.4% 49.4% 33.9% 17.6% 14.0% 5.2% 7.4% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 28.4% 50.5% 46.2% 38.4% 40.6% 27.7% 13.6% 11.2% 3.6% 5.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 39.4% 52.0% 45.2% 45.2% 45.2% 28.2% 15.8% 15.3% 4.7% 7.0% Logistic Regression 29.0% 62.1% 53.5% 53.5% 53.5% 39.7% 19.4% 12.6% 5.8% 7.9% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 12/28/25 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.6% 26.0% 27.6% 21.3% 21.5% 12.7% 10.2% 10.4% 4.9% 3.1% RIPA Consensus 10.5% 35.0% 23.2% 22.1% 22.1% 24.2% 11.6% 10.4% 3.9% 4.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.5% 32.0% 24.6% 21.8% 21.9% 20.3% 11.1% 10.4% 4.2% 3.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 11.3% 26.4% 18.2% 16.1% 16.1% 17.0% 9.6% 11.2% 3.3% 3.0% Logistic Regression 9.8% 43.6% 28.2% 28.2% 28.2% 31.4% 13.6% 9.7% 4.6% 5.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 12/28/25 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 10.3% 33.4% 18.8% 20.6% 25.0% 16.5% 8.2% 10.8% 4.3% 4.7% RIPA Consensus 7.7% 32.3% 20.5% 18.4% 18.4% 26.7% 14.2% 18.3% 8.3% 7.6% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.6% 32.6% 19.9% 19.1% 20.5% 23.3% 12.1% 15.7% 6.9% 6.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 8.0% 23.1% 15.6% 11.5% 11.5% 17.0% 10.6% 23.2% 8.9% 7.3% Logistic Regression 7.5% 41.5% 25.3% 25.3% 25.3% 36.4% 17.7% 13.4% 7.7% 8.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Ten at 12/28/25 06 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.7% 27.7% 12.5% 17.2% 11.3% 14.2% 8.9% 12.0% 4.8% 13.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------