Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Thirteen intensity image current Thirteen RI diff image

 


Thirteen at 01/12/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 2.6% 3.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 6.3% 1.2% 2.6% RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.6% 7.1% 2.1% 6.5% 3.4% 19.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.2% 3.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.5% 4.9% 1.5% 6.3% 2.6% 13.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 5.9% 1.6% 11.6%
Logistic Regression 0.5% 6.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 13.7% 3.8% 7.0% 5.1% 26.7%
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Thirteen at 01/12/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 2.5% 6.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% 5.3% 1.7% 2.0% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 3.0% 0.8% 1.3% 0.7% 1.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.7% 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 2.0% 0.7% 2.6% 1.0% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 2.6% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 5.8% 1.4% 2.0% 1.3% 3.1%
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Thirteen at 01/12/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 4.6% 1.5% 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.5% 3.5% 2.2% 2.3% RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.4% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 8.1% 2.6% 10.6% 5.2% 23.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 4.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.9% 5.6% 1.8% 8.2% 4.2% 16.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.8% 14.2% 5.0% 23.4%
Logistic Regression 0.7% 8.2% 2.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.2% 4.3% 7.1% 5.4% 23.5%
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Thirteen at 01/11/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.2% 1.6% 1.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 2.3% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 3.4% 1.1% 5.0% 2.3% 3.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 2.3% 0.7% 3.8% 1.7% 3.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 7.3% 2.6% 1.1%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 6.7% 2.0% 2.6% 2.0% 6.1%
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Koji at 01/11/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.4% 7.6% 1.9% 0.6% 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 3.0% 0.3% 5.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 1.0% 0.1% 2.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0%
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Koji at 01/11/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.3% 11.7% 6.5% 0.9% 1.3% 4.3% 1.7% 5.0% 3.5% 8.7% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 4.2% 2.3% 0.3% 0.4% 1.7% 0.6% 1.8% 1.2% 3.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.2%
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Koji at 01/11/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.8% 7.7% 7.4% 1.2% 1.2% 2.6% 1.0% 6.5% 1.0% 7.9% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 3.1% 2.7% 0.5% 0.5% 1.3% 0.4% 2.4% 0.3% 3.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.5%
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Koji at 01/10/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.4% 17.3% 6.1% 11.0% 5.1% 6.6% 2.1% 6.5% 3.1% 14.7% RIPA Consensus 2.0% 4.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 1.1%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.8% 8.4% 3.1% 4.7% 2.5% 3.9% 1.1% 2.7% 1.2% 5.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 2.0% 1.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% -0.0% 0.1%
Logistic Regression 2.1% 6.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 4.7% 1.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.0%
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Koji at 01/10/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 2.2% 11.1% 7.9% 2.7% 1.2% 5.0% 4.6% 11.2% 8.1% 13.1% RIPA Consensus 13.7% 44.0% 35.2% 35.2% 26.9% 36.0% 22.5% 21.4% 11.3% 12.5%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.8% 33.0% 26.0% 24.3% 18.3% 25.7% 16.5% 17.9% 10.2% 12.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.0% 31.4% 21.8% 21.8% 5.2% 22.2% 13.6% 14.5% 5.3% 3.6%
Logistic Regression 15.3% 56.5% 48.5% 48.5% 48.5% 49.9% 31.4% 28.2% 17.4% 21.5%
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Thirteen at 01/10/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 1.7% 15.2% 10.2% 4.6% 2.2% 6.4% 6.1% 12.5% 3.0% 10.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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