Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison Tropical Cyclones AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)     Fourteen at 01/21/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fourteen at 01/21/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/21/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/21/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/20/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/20/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/20/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/20/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 3.9% 2.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 2.9% 0.0% 5.7% RIPA Consensus 1.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 1.9% Linear Discriminant Analysis 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/19/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.3% 1.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/19/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.8% 4.2% 1.2% 1.5% 0.3% 2.1% 0.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 0.7% 1.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.5% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/19/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.7% 3.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/19/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 2.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.5% 1.4% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/18/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/18/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.4% 2.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 2.0% 0.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.9% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/18/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.6% 7.1% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 5.7% 0.5% 2.6% 0.4% 3.1% RIPA Consensus 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 2.3% 0.3% 1.2% 0.1% 1.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.4% 1.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/18/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 4.5% 7.4% 3.3% 1.4% 1.2% 10.3% 1.2% 8.6% 1.3% 8.1% RIPA Consensus 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 1.4% 0.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 1.9% 3.6% 1.6% 0.8% 0.6% 4.3% 0.6% 3.8% 0.4% 2.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.7% 2.8% 1.4% 1.1% 0.7% 2.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/17/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.9% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 2.9% 0.2% 3.3% 0.1% 3.9% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 1.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/17/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/17/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/17/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.0% 2.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/16/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 1.2% 2.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/16/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 12.8% 10.5% 5.2% 2.6% 0.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 4.3% 3.5% 1.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------           Dudzai at 01/15/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 40.1% 29.5% 20.0% 15.0% 4.9% 6.5% 1.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 16.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 24.0% 13.2% 6.6% 5.0% 1.6% 2.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 25.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 6.4% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------       Dudzai at 01/15/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 95 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 35.0% 33.6% 26.4% 19.8% 10.8% 16.8% 4.5% 5.0% 0.1% 1.3% RIPA Consensus 27.9% 20.3% 18.5% 18.5% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 30.2% 24.7% 21.1% 18.9% 14.9% 5.6% 1.5% 1.6% 0.0% 0.4% Linear Discriminant Analysis 42.3% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 13.5% 16.0% 12.5% 12.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/15/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 27.4% 23.5% 16.3% 18.9% 6.2% 10.7% 2.7% 5.5% 0.1% 1.6% RIPA Consensus 36.9% 31.3% 30.0% 30.0% 28.4% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 33.7% 28.7% 25.4% 26.3% 20.9% 16.1% 0.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 52.0% 32.5% 32.5% 32.5% 32.5% 21.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 21.9% 30.1% 27.5% 27.5% 24.2% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/14/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 70 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 13.0% 21.7% 29.0% 18.7% 16.3% 21.7% 9.4% 20.6% 1.8% 6.2% RIPA Consensus 9.9% 16.0% 12.5% 12.5% 12.0% 9.1% 3.4% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 10.9% 17.9% 18.0% 14.5% 13.4% 13.3% 5.3% 10.3% 0.6% 2.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.6% 13.3% 11.5% 11.5% 11.5% 8.8% 3.6% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 7.2% 18.8% 13.5% 13.5% 12.5% 9.5% 3.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/14/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.1% 20.3% 21.8% 9.4% 7.0% 17.3% 10.9% 17.0% 1.3% 7.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/14/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 65 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 7.6% 25.1% 20.4% 8.3% 13.6% 21.6% 9.0% 17.7% 2.2% 8.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/14/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.7% 25.7% 22.6% 6.6% 6.8% 16.0% 5.9% 9.6% 0.7% 2.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------                   Dudzai at 01/13/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 80 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 3.8% 11.9% 9.8% 2.4% 3.9% 8.6% 4.0% 5.5% 0.5% 1.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/13/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 90 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 2.0% 8.1% 6.9% 2.1% 1.3% 3.2% 0.7% 3.9% 0.1% 1.2% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/13/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 5.7% 11.4% 13.9% 2.0% 1.8% 3.1% 0.8% 2.0% 0.1% 0.7% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/13/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 110 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 15.7% 17.3% 8.8% 4.8% 3.0% 2.3% 0.9% 1.5% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/12/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 25.8% 26.3% 9.0% 11.8% 2.4% 5.0% 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 8.6% 8.7% 3.0% 3.9% 0.7% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/12/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 115 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 38.1% 38.5% 7.3% 5.3% 1.5% 4.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% RIPA Consensus 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 17.9% 12.8% 2.4% 1.7% 0.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/12/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 100 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 46.8% 42.8% 33.8% 43.0% 16.4% 13.5% 3.2% 3.4% 0.0% 2.0% RIPA Consensus 23.1% 12.9% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 30.9% 22.8% 18.4% 14.3% 5.4% 4.5% 1.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 35.1% 13.2% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 11.0% 12.6% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/12/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 85 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 40.1% 39.1% 46.8% 44.1% 24.7% 26.5% 13.1% 17.7% 0.8% 5.2% RIPA Consensus 31.3% 23.8% 22.1% 22.1% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 34.1% 28.8% 30.3% 29.4% 21.9% 8.8% 4.3% 5.8% 0.2% 1.7% Linear Discriminant Analysis 46.4% 27.1% 27.1% 27.1% 27.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 16.1% 20.4% 17.2% 17.2% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/11/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 75 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 32.4% 48.2% 44.9% 48.0% 38.1% 41.0% 18.9% 26.1% 1.6% 13.1% RIPA Consensus 39.1% 37.8% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 20.4% 11.5% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 36.9% 41.2% 39.6% 40.6% 37.3% 27.3% 13.9% 13.6% 0.5% 4.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 57.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 43.0% 21.0% 13.8% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic Regression 21.3% 32.6% 30.9% 30.9% 30.9% 19.9% 9.2% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/11/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 60 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.8% 49.4% 37.7% 36.0% 36.2% 41.1% 18.2% 29.4% 9.2% 29.0% RIPA Consensus 11.6% 21.2% 15.5% 13.5% 12.5% 14.4% 7.0% 9.4% 4.5% 2.9% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 14.0% 30.6% 22.9% 20.9% 20.3% 23.3% 10.7% 16.0% 6.0% 11.6% Linear Discriminant Analysis 13.5% 16.8% 13.0% 8.9% 7.6% 9.5% 5.4% 13.2% 4.7% 1.0% Logistic Regression 9.7% 25.6% 18.0% 18.0% 17.3% 19.4% 8.6% 5.6% 4.4% 4.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Dudzai at 01/11/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 18.4% 42.5% 47.3% 20.1% 19.3% 40.9% 18.9% 35.3% 12.1% 12.0% RIPA Consensus 19.2% 35.8% 27.9% 26.6% 23.8% 30.0% 19.2% 10.5% 8.4% 3.3% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 18.9% 38.0% 34.3% 24.4% 22.3% 33.6% 19.0% 18.7% 9.6% 6.2% Linear Discriminant Analysis 21.8% 27.9% 19.7% 17.1% 14.5% 16.8% 11.3% 15.3% 5.8% 0.2% Logistic Regression 16.7% 43.7% 36.1% 36.1% 33.2% 43.2% 27.1% 5.8% 11.0% 6.4% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fourteen at 01/11/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 8.3% 32.6% 19.6% 9.4% 8.1% 30.0% 9.0% 22.8% 5.3% 28.1% RIPA Consensus 9.6% 24.0% 15.7% 14.8% 14.2% 19.8% 10.1% 11.2% 6.3% 4.1% AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 9.1% 26.8% 17.0% 13.0% 12.1% 23.2% 9.7% 15.1% 6.0% 12.1% Linear Discriminant Analysis 10.7% 16.5% 11.0% 9.2% 9.2% 10.5% 6.1% 14.4% 5.3% 1.5% Logistic Regression 8.5% 31.4% 20.4% 20.4% 19.1% 29.1% 14.1% 8.1% 7.4% 6.8% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   Fourteen at 01/10/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts       AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 AI-RI 16.7% 30.4% 32.6% 16.2% 18.6% 36.7% 20.7% 25.2% 9.9% 26.8% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------