Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies / University of Wisconsin-Madison
Tropical Cyclones
AI Rapid Intensification Index   (Reference)

 

current Fifteen intensity image current Fifteen RI diff image

 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


 


Invest at 01/22/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.9% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Invest at 01/22/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 15 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 2.0% RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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Invest at 01/22/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 20 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 3.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 4.8% 1.3% 17.3% 7.3% 36.7%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 3.1% 0.9% 11.6% 4.8% 24.5% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.6% 26.6% 11.5% 51.8%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 5.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.0% 8.5% 2.1% 7.9% 3.0% 21.6%
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Ewetse at 01/21/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.9% 0.1% 1.5% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 2.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 3.2% 0.8% 11.0% 3.6% 26.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 2.1% 0.5% 8.0% 2.4% 18.0% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 15.7% 5.2% 38.1%
Logistic Regression 0.2% 4.7% 1.5% 1.0% 0.9% 6.0% 1.4% 6.4% 2.0% 14.7%
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Ewetse at 01/21/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% RIPA Consensus 0.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 2.8% 0.5% 12.2%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 1.9% 0.3% 8.3% Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 3.8% 0.6% 21.2%
Logistic Regression 0.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 1.3% 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 3.3%
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Ewetse at 01/21/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus 0.2% 1.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 3.4%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 5.1%
Logistic Regression 0.3% 2.5% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 1.4% 0.3% 1.3% 0.3% 1.7%
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Ewetse at 01/21/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI 0.9% 6.6% 2.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 4.3% 1.4% 2.8% RIPA Consensus 8.6% 18.9% 12.7% 12.7% 8.1% 13.3% 5.2% 6.2% 2.0% 4.3%
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus 6.0% 14.7% 9.2% 8.6% 5.5% 9.1% 3.5% 5.5% 1.8% 3.8% Linear Discriminant Analysis 12.1% 14.0% 12.4% 12.4% 3.3% 7.6% 3.5% 5.2% 1.0% 2.3%
Logistic Regression 5.2% 23.7% 12.9% 12.9% 12.9% 19.0% 6.8% 7.2% 3.1% 6.4%
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Fifteen at 01/20/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts    

 

AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities
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RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72 RI (kt / h) 20/12 25/24 30/24 35/24 40/24 45/36 55/36 55/48 70/48 65/72
AI-RI N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
AI-RI in RIPA Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Linear Discriminant Analysis N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Logistic Regression N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
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