|
| Luana at 01/27/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
6.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
2.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Luana at 01/27/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.2% |
0.7% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
11.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
3.6% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Luana at 01/27/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.8% |
4.4% |
2.1% |
0.1% |
0.5% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
9.5% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.2% |
1.5% |
0.7% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
3.1% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Luana at 01/27/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
1.3% |
3.9% |
1.2% |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.4% |
1.3% |
0.4% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Luana at 01/26/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 25 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
4.6% |
10.7% |
7.0% |
3.8% |
5.0% |
1.5% |
1.0% |
2.2% |
0.7% |
6.2% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
1.5% |
3.7% |
2.4% |
1.3% |
1.6% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
0.7% |
0.2% |
2.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.2% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Luana at 01/26/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
6.1% |
17.6% |
18.8% |
7.4% |
6.8% |
3.2% |
4.9% |
11.0% |
7.0% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.4% |
1.2% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
1.1% |
0.3% |
0.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
2.3% |
6.6% |
6.5% |
2.6% |
2.3% |
1.7% |
1.8% |
4.0% |
2.3% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.1% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
1.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.7% |
1.9% |
0.7% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
2.0% |
0.6% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Luana at 01/26/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
RIPA Consensus |
1.1% |
3.1% |
1.2% |
0.8% |
0.5% |
2.0% |
0.6% |
9.7% |
2.8% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.4% |
1.0% |
0.4% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
14.2% |
5.3% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
1.7% |
5.3% |
2.1% |
1.4% |
1.0% |
3.9% |
1.1% |
5.3% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Luana at 01/26/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.5% |
2.2% |
0.9% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
1.6% |
0.4% |
0.6% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.1% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
1.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.9% |
3.9% |
1.4% |
1.1% |
0.9% |
3.0% |
0.8% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Luana at 01/25/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 30 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
2.1% |
4.9% |
3.4% |
3.5% |
3.2% |
0.6% |
0.5% |
2.6% |
0.8% |
0.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.4% |
2.4% |
1.0% |
0.7% |
0.5% |
1.4% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
1.0% |
3.2% |
1.7% |
1.5% |
1.4% |
1.0% |
0.4% |
0.9% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.9% |
4.3% |
1.7% |
1.3% |
1.0% |
2.6% |
0.7% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Luana at 01/25/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
2.1% |
9.4% |
10.6% |
3.9% |
4.2% |
1.6% |
2.6% |
4.8% |
1.7% |
0.1% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.5% |
3.0% |
1.4% |
1.1% |
0.8% |
1.7% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
1.0% |
5.1% |
4.5% |
2.0% |
1.9% |
1.6% |
1.2% |
1.7% |
0.6% |
0.1% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.0% |
0.5% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
0.9% |
5.5% |
2.6% |
2.1% |
1.7% |
3.2% |
0.9% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Luana at 01/25/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.7% |
4.5% |
7.9% |
2.1% |
1.0% |
1.7% |
2.6% |
7.7% |
3.6% |
0.7% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
0.7% |
3.5% |
1.5% |
1.0% |
0.9% |
2.4% |
0.8% |
6.9% |
2.7% |
3.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.6% |
3.8% |
3.6% |
1.3% |
0.9% |
2.1% |
1.4% |
7.1% |
2.9% |
2.3% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.2% |
0.8% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
1.2% |
0.8% |
13.2% |
4.9% |
5.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
1.2% |
6.3% |
2.5% |
1.8% |
1.8% |
3.5% |
0.8% |
0.7% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Luana at 01/25/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
0.6% |
11.4% |
3.6% |
3.8% |
0.4% |
1.2% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
0.4% |
0.9% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
1.1% |
3.0% |
1.4% |
1.2% |
1.1% |
1.5% |
0.5% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
0.9% |
5.8% |
2.1% |
2.0% |
0.8% |
1.4% |
0.4% |
0.5% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.7% |
0.6% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.0% |
0.4% |
0.3% |
0.5% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
1.5% |
5.5% |
2.3% |
2.1% |
2.1% |
2.6% |
0.7% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Luana at 01/24/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
18.1% |
32.2% |
17.1% |
21.5% |
12.0% |
8.7% |
4.9% |
8.8% |
6.5% |
2.0% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
1.8% |
13.9% |
8.8% |
8.5% |
6.3% |
5.7% |
1.9% |
2.3% |
0.7% |
0.5% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
7.2% |
20.0% |
11.6% |
12.8% |
8.2% |
6.7% |
2.9% |
4.5% |
2.6% |
1.0% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
0.6% |
5.6% |
2.4% |
2.0% |
0.2% |
1.9% |
0.6% |
1.8% |
0.3% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
3.1% |
22.3% |
15.3% |
15.0% |
12.4% |
9.5% |
3.2% |
2.9% |
1.1% |
0.9% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Luana at 01/24/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 50 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
3.6% |
30.6% |
14.0% |
19.5% |
12.0% |
13.9% |
4.5% |
9.2% |
3.2% |
12.4% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
2.6% |
16.0% |
9.9% |
9.4% |
7.9% |
8.6% |
3.1% |
3.5% |
1.1% |
0.7% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
2.9% |
20.8% |
11.2% |
12.8% |
9.2% |
10.4% |
3.5% |
5.4% |
1.8% |
4.6% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
1.7% |
7.5% |
4.0% |
3.1% |
0.6% |
4.5% |
1.6% |
1.9% |
0.3% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
3.5% |
24.5% |
15.8% |
15.8% |
15.2% |
12.8% |
4.6% |
5.2% |
1.9% |
1.3% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Luana at 01/24/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
11.1% |
40.6% |
42.7% |
37.5% |
27.7% |
35.1% |
23.9% |
26.0% |
19.4% |
18.6% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
22.2% |
57.0% |
49.4% |
49.1% |
38.9% |
46.3% |
30.7% |
28.4% |
13.8% |
14.2% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
18.5% |
51.5% |
47.1% |
45.2% |
35.1% |
42.5% |
28.4% |
27.6% |
15.6% |
15.6% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
21.3% |
47.5% |
35.1% |
34.4% |
14.1% |
35.4% |
22.3% |
16.7% |
6.4% |
3.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
23.2% |
66.4% |
63.7% |
63.7% |
63.7% |
57.2% |
39.2% |
40.1% |
21.3% |
24.6% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Luana at 01/24/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 55 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
11.1% |
37.0% |
28.5% |
28.1% |
15.2% |
22.4% |
11.2% |
20.4% |
6.8% |
14.8% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
46.8% |
69.7% |
68.1% |
68.1% |
53.1% |
58.3% |
44.0% |
30.9% |
19.1% |
9.4% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
34.9% |
58.7% |
54.9% |
54.7% |
40.5% |
46.3% |
33.0% |
27.3% |
14.9% |
11.2% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
52.3% |
61.3% |
58.2% |
58.2% |
28.3% |
43.6% |
28.4% |
17.3% |
6.6% |
1.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
41.3% |
78.0% |
78.0% |
78.0% |
78.0% |
73.1% |
59.6% |
44.4% |
31.5% |
17.6% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Seventeen at 01/23/26 18 UTC. Intensity = 45 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
21.0% |
32.0% |
37.1% |
26.4% |
22.7% |
24.1% |
28.6% |
34.7% |
15.9% |
22.6% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
12.1% |
49.9% |
37.4% |
35.9% |
29.0% |
43.3% |
27.6% |
28.9% |
16.1% |
12.1% |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
15.0% |
43.9% |
37.3% |
32.7% |
26.8% |
36.9% |
27.9% |
30.8% |
16.0% |
15.5% |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
9.5% |
36.4% |
19.2% |
16.1% |
6.2% |
25.7% |
13.1% |
14.3% |
5.2% |
3.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
14.7% |
63.4% |
55.7% |
55.7% |
51.8% |
60.9% |
42.2% |
43.5% |
27.1% |
21.0% |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Seventeen at 01/23/26 12 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Seventeen at 01/23/26 06 UTC. Intensity = 40 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
16.7% |
48.1% |
42.0% |
17.6% |
15.0% |
34.8% |
27.2% |
37.7% |
24.2% |
31.3% |
|
RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| Seventeen at 01/23/26 00 UTC. Intensity = 35 kts, MPI = 9999 kts |
|
| AI-RI Matrix of RI probabilities |
|
RIPA Matrix of RI probabilities |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
|
RI (kt / h) |
20/12 |
25/24 |
30/24 |
35/24 |
40/24 |
45/36 |
55/36 |
55/48 |
70/48 |
65/72 |
| AI-RI |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| AI-RI in RIPA Consensus |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
Linear Discriminant Analysis |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Logistic Regression |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
|